Revenue of $30B (-7% Y/Y) misses by $700M. Company expects FQ2 EPS of $0.88-$0.91, below $0.95 consensus. Guidance for FY12 EPS of $4, below $4.08 consensus. Shares of HPQ -3.49% to $27.84.

Resistance 3: Y77.30 (Sep 15 and Oct 3 high) 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9500 (Feb 22 high)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5530 (area of Sep 29-30 lows and МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3: Y77.30 (Sep 15  and Oct 3 high) 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9500 (Feb 22 high)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5660 (Sep 30 high)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9350 (high of March and April)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5700/10 (area of Sep 27 and 29 high)

Resistance 3: $ 1.3560 (high of european session on Sep 30)

Resistance 3: Y77.30 (Sep 15 high) 

Resistance 3:Chf0.9350 (high of March and April)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5630 (Sep 19 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.3600 (area of Sep 19-20 low and Sep 22 high)

EUR/USD  $1.3500, $1.3600, $1.3680, $1.3690, $1.3800, $1.3900
USD/JPY  Y75.85, Y75.95, Y76.40, Y76.45, Y76.65, Y76.70, Y77.50, Y77.75, Y78.00
EUR/JPY  Y103.30, Y107.70, Y108.50
GBP/USD  $1.5700, $1.5500
AUD/USD  $1.0100, $1.0270, $1.0345, $1.0350, $1.0375, $1.0400, $1.0420

Resistance 3:Chf0.8880 (high of american session on Sep 12, Sep 13 high)

Resistance 3: Y77.60 (Sep 8 and 12 high) 

Resistance 3: $ 1.5870 (area of Sep 12-13 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.3840 (high of american session on Sep  9)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 19-20 high)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5920 (area of Sep 6-8 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.3790 (low of european session on Sep 9)

Resistance 3: Y77.60 (Sep 8 and 12 high) 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 19-20 high)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5920 (area of Sep 6-8 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.3790 (low of european session on Sep 9)

Resistance 3: Y77.85/90 (Sep 9 high) 

Comments: the pair renewed falling. The immediate support - Y77.95/00. Below losses are possible to Y76.75/70. The immediate resistance - Y77.40. Above growth is possible to Y77.60.

Resistance 3: Chf0.8925/30 (Sep 12 high) 

Resistance 3: $ 1.3840 (high of american session on Sep 9)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5990 (Sep 9 high) 

Resistance 3:$1.3935/40
Resistance 2:$1.3720
Resistance 1:$1.3600
Current price: $1.3537
Support 1: $1.3500/90
Support 2: $1.3420
Support 3: $1.3380
Comments: Rate continues to weaken, holding under earlier broken trend line from May 04 at $1.3600 (resistance now). Support is near $1.350/90, stronger one - at $1.3420 (Feb 14 low, Dec 30'2010 high). Below losses may widen to $1.3380. Back above $1.3600 opens the way to $1.3720 (Friday's NY high). Further resistance comes at $1.3935/40 (Friday's high).

Resistance 2: Chf0.8950   
Resistance 2: Chf0.8800   
Resistance 1: Chf0.8770

Resistance 2: Y78.50

Support 1:Y77.05/10

Support 2: $1.5860
Support 3: $1.5770
Comments: Pound weakens. Support is near $1.5910 (yesterday's lows). Below there is a way down to $1.5860. Stronger level - at $1.5780 (Jul 12 lows). Resistance is near $1.5990 (overnight high). Break above targets Sep 01 lows at $1.6060/70 (also channel line from Aug 29) and then - to $1.6130 (Sep 05 low).

Resistance 2: Y78.50

Support 1:Y77.05/10

Resistance 2: Chf0.8800   

Resistance 2: Chf0.8700   
Resistance 1: Chf0.8630

Comments: Pound holds tight, but in general remains under pressure. Resistance remains at $1.5990 (23.6% of Tuesday's move). Break above will target Sep 01 low on $1.6060, then - at $1.6130 Sep 05 low. Support is near $1.5920 (Tuesday's low). Below there is a risk of declining to $1.5860 and $1.5780 (Jul 12 lows).

Support 3: $1.3840  
Comments: Rate consolidates with no major changes in tech. Strong support comes at $1.3970/90 (yesterday's lows, $1.4000 - trend line from Jun 07'2010). Break below widens losses to $1.3950 and then - to $1.3840 (Jul lows). Resistance is near $1.4110 (Wednesday's NY high). Above there is a chance to test $1.4160 (31.8% of Tuesday's fall). Further resistance comes at $1.4280 (Tuesday's high).

Resistance 2: Chf0.8800   

Resistance 2: Chf0.8700   
Resistance 1: Chf0.8630

Comments: rate currently challenging resistance at $1.5990 (23.6% of yesterday's move) and retreated a bit. Break above will target Sep 01 low on $1.6060, then - at $1.6130 Sep 05 low). Support is near $1.5920 (yesterday's low). Below there is a risk of declining to $1.5860 and $1.5780 (Jul 12 lows).

Support 3: $1.3840  
Comments: Rate corrected after yesterday's moves, but recovery still tight. Strong support comes at $1.3970/90 (yesterday's lows, also trend line from Jun 07'2010). Break below widens losses to $1.3950 and then - to $1.3840 (Jul lows). Resistance is near $1.4090 (Tuesday's NY high). Above there is a chance to test $1.4120/25 (50% of yesterday's fall). Further resistance comes at $1.4280 (Tuesday's high).

Resistance 3: Chf0.8170
Resistance 2: Chf0.8080/90
Resistance 1: Chf0.7910 
Current price: Chf0.7870
Support 1: Chf0.7830
Support 2: Chf0.7710
Support 3: Chf0.7650

Comments: Rate consolidates. Minor support comes at Chf0.7830 (23.6% Fibo of Chf0.8230 - Chf0.7710 decline), then around Friday's lows on Chf0.7710/00. Stronger level - at Chf0.7650 (50% Fibo of Chf0.7060 - Chf0.8240 rise). Resistance is near yesterday's high on Chf0.7910. Further rise may extend to $Chf0.8080/90 (Sep 01 high). Key resistance comes at Chf0.8170 (trend resistance line from Jun 01'2010).

Resistance 3: $1.6280 
Resistance 2: $1.6250/60
Resistance 1: $1.6120
Current price: $1.6070
Support 1: $1.6060
Support 2: $1.6000 
Support 3: $1.5910

Comments: Rate holds steady above testerday's lows on $1.6060 (minor support). Stronger level comes at $1.6000 (trend line from May 20'2010, also Jul 18 lows). Below rate may probe Jun 27-28 lows on $1.5910. Resistance is around $1.6120. Further recoverr may extend to $1.6250/60 (Sep 02 highs) and then - to $1.6280 (channel line from Aug 19).

Resistance seen into $1.6350 ahead of reported corporate sell interest placed between $1.6380/00, with topside stops noted between $1.6405/10. Support seen into $1.6280/75, stronger between $1.6260/50 with stops below. A break here to allow for a move toward the 55-DMA at $1.6225 ahead of $1.6200 and $1.6180/70.

EUR/USD $1.4275, $1.4395, $1.4400, $1.4500
USD/JPY Y76.00, Y77.00
EUR/JPY Y110.50
GBP/USD $1.6375, $1.6500
USD/CHF Chf0.8000
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0290
AUD/JPY Y81.00

Resistance 3: Y80.20

Resistance 2: Y78.20
Resistance 1: Y77.80

Current price: Y76.98
Support 1:Y76.80              
Support 2:Y76.40
Support 3:Y75.90

Comments: closest support at yesterday's session lows Y76.80, ahead of Wednesday base Y76.40/45 and Y75.90. Resistance spotted at Y77.80 (38.2% Y80.20-Y75.90), ahead of Y78.20.

Resistance 3: Chf0.8140
Resistance 2: Chf0.8010/15
Resistance 1: Chf0.7945
Current price: Chf0.7900
Support 1: Chf0.7790
Support 2: Chf0.7660
Support 3: Chf0.7540

Comments: Resistance is around session's highs on Chf0.7945, stronger - at Chf0.8010/15 (Aug 17 highs). Further rise may extend Chf0.8140 (channel line from the mid-Feb). Strong support comes at Chf0.7790 (23.6% Fibo of Chf0.7070 - Chf0.8020). Below losses may widen to Chf0.7660 (38.6%) and Chf0.7540 (Aug 12 lows).

Resistance 3: $1.4580
Resistance 2: $1.4520         
Resistance 1: $1.4500
Current price: $1.4431
Support 1: $1.4340
Support 2: $1.4260
Support 3: $1.4150

Comments: Support remains at $1.4340 (overnight lows). Below there is a chance for a test of stronger level - at $1.4260 (Friday's low). Further resistance comes at $1.4520 (Aug 17 high). Further rise may extend to $1.4580 (Jul 04 high).

Resistance 3: Y78.20

Resistance 2: Y77.80
Resistance 1: Y77.20

Current price: Y76.72
Support 1:Y75.90              
Support 2:Y75.00
Support 3:Y74.30

Комментарии: Курс откатил от нового сессионного максимума на Y77.20 на фоне сохраняющихся на рынке опасений относительно возможной интервенции. Установленные в пятницу новые исторические минимумы представляют сильную поддержку на  Y75.90. Ниже поддержка расположена на Y75.00. Четкое пробитие этого рубежа откроет путь к Y74.30 (канальная линия от декабря 2008 года). Выше Y77.20 сопротивление представлено Y77.80 (38.2% Фибо падения курса с Y80.20 до Y75.90), далее - на Y78.20.

Resistance 3: Chf0.8140
Resistance 2: Chf0.8010/15
Resistance 1: Chf0.7960
Current price: Chf0.7872
Support 1: Chf0.7790
Support 2: Chf0.7660
Support 3: Chf0.7540

Resistance 3: $1.4580
Resistance 2: $1.4500/20         
Resistance 1: $1.4450
Current price: $1.4370
Support 1: $1.4350
Support 2: $1.4330
Support 3: $1.4260

Comments: Rate holds close to support at $1.4350 (50% of Friday's rise). Below there is a chance for a test of $1.4330 (61.8%). Stronger level - at $1.4260 (Friday's low). Resistance is around Friday's high on $1.4450. Stronger resistance comes at $1.4500/20 (channel line from May 04, also Aug 17 high). Further rise may extend to $1.4580 (Jul 04 high).

Resistance 3:$1.6750
Resistance 2:$1.6600
Resistance 1: $1.6530
Current price: $1.6490
Support 1: $1.6460
Support 2: $1.6410
Support 3: $1.6350

Comments: cable set to correct it resent gains.  Support is around $1.6460 (trendline from August base), ahead of $1.6410 (38.2% Fibo of the resent rally) and $1.6350 (50%, August 17 base). Closest resistance eyed at $1.6530. Strong resistance remains at yesterday's highs on $1.6590/00. Further upside targets come at $1.6660 and $1.6740.

Resistance 3: $1.4520
Resistance 2: $1.4450         
Resistance 1: $1.4340
Current price: $1.4292
Support 1: $1.4270
Support 2: $1.4200
Support 3: $1.4100

Comments: Rate remains under the pressure. Resistance remains at $1.4330/40  (session high) ahead of $1.4450 (August 18 high). Support comes at recent lows on $1.4270. Below losses may widen to $1.4200.

Resistance 3: Y78.20

08:30     UK     Retail sales (July)         0.4%    0.7%
08:30     UK     Retail sales (July) Y/Y         0.3%    0.4%
12:30     USA     Jobless claims (week to 13.08)         400K    395K
12:30     USA     CPI (July)         0.2%    -0.2%
12:30     USA     CPI (July) Y/Y         -    3.6%
12:30     USA     CPI excluding food and energy (July)         0.2%    0.3%
12:30     USA     CPI excluding food and energy (July) Y/Y         -    1.6%
14:00     USA     Existing home sales (July), mln         4.80    4.77
14:00     USA     Philadelphia Fed index (August)         0.8    3.2
14:00     USA     Leading indicators (July)         0.2%    0.3%
20:30     USA     M2 money supply (08.08), bln         -    +159.3

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4420/30, $1.4445/50, $1.4470/80
Bids: $1.4350

GBP/USD
Bids: $1.6400, $1.6385/80, $1.6350/40

USD/JPY
Offers: Y76.95/00, Y77.10
Bids: Y76.50/60, Y76.25, Y76.00

AUD/USD
Offers: $1.0500

EUR/GBP
Bids: stg0.8725/20, stg0.8700

Resistance 3: Y78.20

Resistance 2: Y77.80
Resistance 1: Y77.20
Current price: Y76.86
Support 1:Y76.30              
Support 2:Y75.00
Support 3:Y74.60

Comments: Rate holds weak. Strong support/resistance come at Y76.30/Y77.20 respectively. Further support is around key level Y75.00 and then - at Y74.60 (channel line from Dec'2008). Break above  Y77.20 points for a further rise to Y77.80 and Y78.20/25.

Resistance 3:$1.6480
Resistance 2:$1.6450
Resistance 1: $1.6410
Current price: $1.6334
Support 1: $1.6340
Support 2: $1.6260
Support 3: $1.6160

Comments: The pound under pressure and still challenging support at $1.6340. Break under targets $1.6250/60 (yesterday's lows and 50% of Monday's rise). Resistance remains at recent highs on $1.6410. Stronger one - near channel line from the end-Apr at $1.6450. Further resistance comes at $1.6475/80.

Resistance 3: $1.4580
Resistance 2: $1.4540         
Resistance 1: $1.4480
Current price: $1.4379
Support 1: $1.4370
Support 2: $1.4260
Support 3: $1.4200

Comments: Rate remains under pressure after it broke support at $1.4420. Euro tested strong support at $1.4370 (50% of yesterday's rise) and currently tries to recover. Below $1.4370 losses may dip to $1.4260 (yesterday's lows). Resistance remains at $1.4480 (Monday's highs). Neat band of resistance comes at $1.4540 (Jul 27 high) and $1.4580 (Jul 04 high).

Now DB expects ECB's Refi rate to stay on hold at 1.50% "until at the least the end of 2012" on back of weaker growth and inflation outlook. 

Resistance 3: Y78.20

Resistance 2: Y77.80
Resistance 1: Y77.10
Current price: Y76.86
Support 1:Y76.30              
Support 2:Y75.00
Support 3:Y72.10

Resistance 3: Chf0.8360
Resistance 2: Chf0.8040
Resistance 1: Chf0.8000
Current price: Chf0.7949
Support 1: Chf0.7780
Support 2: Chf0.7680
Support 3: Chf0.7500/90

Comments: Dollar refreshed session high on Chf0.8000 (minor resistance) and retreated. Rate continues to go higher on intervention speculations. Next resistance is around late Juky highs on Chf0.8040, then - at trend line from Jun 01'2010 at Chf0.8360. If correction comes rate may retreat to Chf0.7780 firstly and then - to Chf0.7680 (Aug 11 high).

Resistance 3:$1.6480
Resistance 2:$1.6440
Resistance 1: $1.6310
Current price: $1.6274
Support 1: $1.6240
Support 2: $1.6160
Support 3: $1.6100

Comments: Pound weakens after it earlier tried to recover and failed. Support comes at recent lows on $1.6240/50 with a break under widens losses to $1.6160 (Friday's lows). Further support is near Aug 11 lows on $1.6100/10. Resistance is placed at Friday's highs on $1.6310, then - on $1.6440 (channel line from Apr 28) and $1.6475/80.

Resistance 3: $1.4440
Resistance 2: $1.4400         
Resistance 1: $1.4330
Current price: $1.4301
Support 1: $1.4210
Support 2: $1.4100
Support 3: $1.4050   

Comments: Rate refreshed session highs around $1.4330 (minor resistance), but failed to do ahead and retreated to current around the figure. Stronger resistance remains at $1.4400 (recent daily highs). Stronger level comes at channel line from  May 4 at $1.4440. As to supports we should mention the first one is at $1.4210 (Friday's hourly low), below - at $1.4100 (Aug 11 lows) and $1.4050/55 (Aug 05 lows).

Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The immediate support - Y76.50, further - on Y76.30. The immediate resistance is located on - Y77.20. Above growth is possible  to Y77.80/90.

Comments: the pair remains under the pressure. Immediate support $1.6180. The next support - $1.6110. The immediate resistance - $1.6250. Above growth is possible to $1.6330.

Comments:The immediate resistance is - $1.4300. Above growth is possible to $1.4400. The immediate support - $1.4120. Below losses are possible to $1.4050.

Under pressure in recent trade, tracking euro-dollar slippage to hit a fresh session low $1.0210. Inital support seen at $1.0210/00 ahead of $1.0120/10. Offers on approach to $1.0290.

EUR/USD $1.4200, $1.4250, $1.4300
USD/JPY Y76.00( large), Y77.00, Y77.10, Y77.60, Y77.75
EUR/JPY Y109.00, Y111.20, Y114.00
GBP/USD $1.6325, $1.6335, $1.6450
AUD/USD $1.0000, $1.0300, $1.0335, $1.0435, $1.0520
NZD/USD $0.8200, $0.8085

Resistance 3: Y78.45 (Aug 8 high)

Resistance 3: Chf0.7650 (Aug 8 high) 

Resistance 3: $ 1.6330 (Aug 10 high, 61.8 % FIBO $1.6470-$ 1.6110)

Resistance 3 : $1.4400 (Aug 8-9 high)

EUR/USD $1.4200, $1.4225, $1.4350, $1.4365
USD/JPY Y76.00, Y77.75, Y78.00, Y78.25
EUR/JPY Y110.00
GBP/JPY Y125.00
EUR/CHF Chf1.0650
AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0300
NZD/USD $0.8155

Data:01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (Jul) 2 
01:30 Australia Home Loans (Jun) 0.0% 
02:00  China Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jul) 7.5% 
02:00  China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul) 6.5% 
05:00  Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Jul) 37.0 

"Given our lower growth outlook, we were already inclined to expect the Fed to remain on hold through at least the middle of 2013. We still do not expect the Fed to announce additional steps of monetary accommodation."

EUR/USD: $1.4250, $1.4300

USD/JPY: Y78.00, Y80.00

EUR/JPY: Y111.20, Y112.00

EUR/GBP: stg0.8625

AUD/USD: $1.0300

AUD/JPY: Y81.00

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4400, $1.4430/40
Bids: $1.4300, $1.4280

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6480, $1.6500, $1.6520
Bids: $1.6385/75

USD/JPY:
Offers: Y78.00/10, Y78.50/60
Bids: Y77.40/50

AUD/USD
Bids: $1.0280, $1.0250

EUR/USD: $1.4100, $1.4200
USD/JPY: Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.15, Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.45, Y80.65, Y80.85
GBP/USD: $1.6100, $1.6500
GBP/JPY: Y131.60
AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0400, $1.0550, $1.0560, $1.0600
USD/CAD: C$0.9675

• Widening spreads not justified
• Political will to defend euro should not be doubted

Data released:
Japan     BoJ meeting announcement    0.00-0.10%    0.00-0.10%    0.00-0.10%
10:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (June) seasonally adjusted    1.8%    -0.4%    1.5 (1.8)%
10:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (June) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y    9.5%    6.7%    11.7 (12.2)%
11:00     UK     BoE meeting announcement    0.50%    0.50%    0.50%
11:45     EU(17)     ECB meeting announcement    1.50%    1.50%    1.50%
12:30     EU(17)     ECB press conference               
12:30     USA     Jobless claims (week to 30.07)    400K    410K    401 (398)K
20:30     USA     M2 money supply (25.07), bln    +22.0    -    +34.1

EUR/USD fell from $1.4370 to $1.4085, triggering bids and stops.
GBP/USD initially fell from $1.6440 to $1.6340. Rate recovered to $1.6390, but it was short-lived before pound fell to a new lows around $1.6250.
USD/JPY rocketed sharply from Y70.05 to Y80.00. Later rate broke above to Y80.20 before corrected back to Y78.60.

On Friday UK PPI report will be released at 08:30 GMT, followed by Germany's Industrial Production at 10:00 GMT.
But the main event of the day is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT - US non-farm Payrolls.

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4140/50, $1.4190/$1.4200
Bids: $1.4055/50

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6280
Bids:  $1.6230/20, $1.6200
 
AUD/USD
Offers: $1.0500
Bids: $1.0380

USD/CAD:
Offers: C$0.9910
Bids: C$0.9750-60

EUR/USD: $1.4100, $1.4200
USD/JPY: Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.15, Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.45, Y80.65, Y80.85
GBP/USD: $1.6100, $1.6500
GBP/JPY: Y131.60
AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0400, $1.0550, $1.0560, $1.0600
USD/CAD: C$0.9675

EUR/USD: $1.4300, $1.4325, $1.4480
USD/JPY: Y78.00, Y78.50, Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.85
EUR/JPY: Y113.50, Y113.15, Y110.00
AUD/USD: $1.0600, $1.0680, $1.0750
AUD/JPY: Y86.00
USD/CAD: C$0.9675

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4320/25
Bids: $1.4270, $1.4250, $1.4235/30, $1.4200

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6440/50
Bids:  $1.6320/10
 
USD/JPY
Offers: Y80.00/10

• BOJ's outlook on economic recovery still intact;

• we don't make our policy based on some specific forex levels;

• uncertainty over the economy still big.

EUR/USD: $1.4300, $1.4325, $1.4480
USD/JPY: Y78.00, Y78.50, Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.85
EUR/JPY: Y113.50, Y113.15, Y110.00
AUD/USD: $1.0600, $1.0680, $1.0750
AUD/JPY: Y86.00
USD/CAD: C$0.9675

10:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (June) seasonally adjusted         -0.4%    1.8%
10:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (June) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y         6.7%    12.2%
11:00     UK     BoE meeting announcement         0.50%    0.50%
11:45     EU(17)     ECB meeting announcement         1.50%    1.50%
12:30     EU(17)     ECB press conference               
12:30     USA     Jobless claims (week to 30.07)         410K    398K
20:30     USA     M2 money supply (25.07), bln         -    +34.1

EUR/USD

EUR/USD: $1.4200, $1.4300
USD/JPY: Y78.30
AUD/USD: $1.0700, $1.0750, $1.0850

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4225, $1.4235/40, $1.4280/85
Bids: $1.4200

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6300/05, $1.6325/30, $1.6345/50
Bids:  $1.6250, $1.6225/20
 
USD/JPY
Offers: Y78.00, Y78.10
Bids: Y76.95/00

Data released:
03:30     Australia     RBA meeting announcement    4.75%    4.75%    4.75%
09:00     EU(17)     PPI (June)    0.0%    0.1%    -0.2%
09:00     EU(17)     PPI (June) Y/Y    5.9%    5.9%    6.2%
12:30     USA     Personal income (June)    0.1%    0.1%    0.2 (0.3)%
12:30     USA     Personal spending (June)    -0.2%    0.0%    0.1 (0.0)%
12:30     USA     PCE price index ex food, energy (June)    0.1%    0.2%    0.2 (0.3)%
12:30     USA     PCE price index ex food, energy (June) Y/Y    1.3%    -    1.3 (1.2)%
12:55     USA     Redbook (30.07)   

US dollar renewed its decline amid concern that crafted agreement between Barack Obama and congressional leaders to raise the federal debt ceiling and spending reduction may lead to slowdown in economic recovery. Today Senate approved the debt limit hike bill. According to the plan, the U.S. debt limit will be raised by at least $2.1 trillion and cut federal spending by $2.4 trillion.
European stocks tumbled to the lowest level in 11 months amid concern that a slowdown in the world’s largest economy may derail global growth. Another pressure for the currency is surging bond yields in Italy reawakened concern that the region’s debt crisis will worsen amid slowing global growth. Italy’s 10-year yield jumped to the most since 1997.
The Swiss franc climbed to a new life-time high today. It was supported by “save haven” status and beating statistics on Swiss SVME PMI and retail sales.
The Australian dollar fell after the nation’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged.
The yen remained under pressure amid speculations Japan will intervene in currency markets. Today Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said the nation’s currency is overvalued and he’s watching markets closely.

EUR/USD initially fell from $1.4280 to $1.4150 before recovered to daily highs and retreated again to $1.4180.
GBP/USD fell from $1.6330 to $1.6220. Later rate was back to $1.6316.
USD/JPY tested highs on Y77.80, but failed to set above and retreated to the lows around  Y76.90.

Today's focus in Europe will be on Germany's Purchasing Manager Index Services for July at 07:55 GMT.
Later the same data from EU and UK will be released.
ADP employment report is due to come at 12:15 GMT.
US non-manuf ISM index and Jun Factory Orders are scheduled to release at 14:00 GMT.  
 

07:45     Italy     PMI services (July)         47.0    47.4
07:50     France     PMI services (July)         54.2    56.1
07:55     Germany     PMI services (July) seasonally adjusted         52.9    56.7
08:00     EU(17)     PMI services (July)         51.4    53.7
08:30     UK     CIPS services index (July)         53.2    53.9
09:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (June) adjusted         0.4%    -1.1%
09:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (June) adjusted Y/Y          -1.1%    -1.9%
12:15     USA     ADP employment (July)         +97K    +157K
14:00     USA     ISM Non-mfg PMI (July)         52.8    53.3
14:00     USA     ISM Non-mfg business index (July)         -    53.4
14:00     USA     Factory orders (June)         -1.0%    0.8%

EUR/JPY continues to weaken, holding around Y111.00. Cross remains under pressure amid rumours that the Italian PM Berlusconi and Finmin Tremonti have both resigned.

EUR/USD holds at $1.4481 and the dollar remains on the defensive amid US debt talks. Euro stalled around $1.4520, where offers lie. Bids back at $1.4450.

EUR/USD holds higher after breakng above $1.4384 (61.8% Fibo of $1.4418/1.4330) and extends recovery to $1.4395. Next resistance seen at $1.4395/00 (76.4%).  Break above opens a move toward the overnight highs at $1.4418 with offers seen placed on approach to $1.4420.

AUD/USD retreats from session high on $1.0834 to current $1.0828. Small stops reported of note at $1.0890 ($1.0889 May 11 high), further stops at $1.0925 and $1.0950. Next target comes at $1.1012 (2 May high). On the downside stops through $1.0790/85, bids behind at $1.0775/70.

EUR/USD recovered from session lows around $1.4138 and currently holds above $1.4170. Resistance/offers placed around earlier broken support at $1.4180. next resistance is near $1.4200 (38.2% $1.4294/1.4138).

The euro gets down ahead of EU summit. Earlier rate rose after Germany and France reached an agreement on addressing Greece’s debt crisis.

Canada’s dollar weakens today too after it rose yesterday to the highest since May 2.
The rate was earlier supported after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney adjusted wording in a statement to suggest interest rate increases will happen as early as September.
In its Monetary Policy report the central bank said inflation will average 2.8% between July and September and slow to 1.9% in the second quarter of next year . The so-called core rate, which excludes energy and food prices, will peak at 2.1% in the first quarter of 2012.

EUR/USD falls after it broke under the technical support at $1.4167 (76.4% $1.4133/1.4294). Rate holds at $1.4158 with next support between $1.4135/30.

On Wednesday Canada’s dollar advanced to the highest since May 2 against the greenback as optimism that policy makers in Europe and the U.S. will address debt conflicts drove demand for higher-yielding assets.
The rate was supported after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney yesterday adjusted wording in a statement to suggest interest rate increases will happen as early as September. 
Crude oil rose for a second day.
Banc of Canada Monetary Policy report said inflation will average 2.8% between July and September and slow to 1.9% in the second quarter of next year . The so-called core rate, which excludes energy and food prices, will peak at 2.1% in the first quarter of 2012.
The policy rate was kept at 1%, where it’s been since September.
Data showed Canadian wholesale sales increased 1.9% to C$47.6 billion ($50 billion) in May, the fastest rate in 18 months. The median was for a 0.1% rise.uch as 1.6 percent to $99.02 a barrel in New York. 

CAD/JPY tripped stops through Y83.15 as the rate rises above the 200 day MA at Y83.16 to a session high Y83.21 after more hawkish rate outlook from BoC. The rate is currently Y83.16.

GBP/USD retreats after it earlier rose to session highs on $1.6157. Rate currently holds around $1.6122. The pound earlier triggered stops at $1.6135. Resistance - at $1.6180.

Gold prices continue to print fresh record highs despite daily studies losing momentum. Resistance is seen at $1617.10 (the daily
Bollinger band top), followed by a resistance at $1646.00 (channel line from Nov 2010). Initial support seen at $1596.80 (the 5-DMA). Gold currently holds around $1606.0.

USD/CAD rises, holding currently at C$0.9620. Traders mention stops at C$0.9625 level (also Friday's high). Rate holds much higher daily lows on C$0.9533.

The dollar held yesterday’s loss against the euro after Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S. under review for a credit rating downgrade, damping demand for the nation’s currency.

Gold rallied ahead of the US session, taken out the life-time high of $1575.79/oz, seen May 2 to post a high of $1578.50. Later, in the wake of Fed Chair Bernanke's remarks, the precious metal has posted a new life-high at $1584.04, before stabilising at current levels
near $1582.00. The next strong resistance is around $1600.00.

Recovery off pullback lows at $1.4030 seen meeting resistance around $1.4070. A break here to allow for a move toward $1.4095/00 ahead of earlier highs at $1.4110. Stronger offers noted around $1.4120. Support remains at $1.4030.

Test bids to a session low Y79.20/15. Support seen at Y78.80 with larger bids at Y78.50.

Moves above $1.4090 and looking set now to challenge  resistance at $1.4100. More stops above the figure, which if triggered  expose next resistance area between $1.4120/25 ($1.4121 38.2% $1.4580/1.3837).

USD/JPY has settled into a broad Y79.00/Y80.00 range with rate currently holds around Y79.55. Bids towards the days lows Y79.20/10 with larger stops now sitting below Y79.00, which if triggered opens Y78.50. Offers seen at Y80.00, extending to Y80.80. Stops extending to Y81.00.

USD/JPY continues to recover trading Y79.65 as markets rebound from session lows at Y79.15. Offers in the market at Y79.90/00 a break opens Y80.10/20.

USD/JPY is contained in a tight Y80.72-83 range. On the topside offers at Y80.80/90 (Y80.87 - 08 Jul high). On the downside bids at Y80.60/55, larger at Y80.50/40 and Y80.30/25.

Both August WTI and Brent contracts easing back again this morning. WTI is now down over $1 to $95.00 after opening highs around $96.30 and Brent is closing in on Frday's lows of $116.88 with a fall to $116.94 from opening highs of around $117.88.

Nikkei 225 +66.59 +0.66%  10,138
FTSE 100 -63.97 -1.06%  5,991   
CAC 40 -66.41 -1.67%  3,914   
DAX -68.71 -0.92%  7,403   
Dow -62.29 -0.49%  12,657   
Nasdaq -12.85 -0.45%  2,860
S&P 500  -9.42 -0.70%  1,344  
10 Year Yield -0.13  3.02%
Oil -0.30     -0.31%  $95.90    
Gold  +2.00     +0.13%  $1,543.60    

The rate collapses on weak data dropping from Y81.47 to support at Y80.75/70. More bids seen at Y80.55/50, ahead of the channel base around Y80.35.

Probes below $1.4280 as market react to reports that Italain bank UniCredit shares have been suspended limit down. Rate extends lows to support at $1.4265/60 ahead of $1.4230/20.

EUR/GBP continues to correct from early Europe highs of stg0.9010 and currently tests overnight lows at stg0.8977. Demand interest seen
in the area between stg0.8980/70, a break to open a deeper move toward stg0.8955/50.

GBP/USD challenged $1.6000 before retreated to current $1.6010. A break here to expose demand placed from $1.5990 and extending to $1.5970, with retail interest noted within between $1.5985/70. Stops noted on a break below.

EUR/USD falls to around $1.4400/05 after it earlier rose in Europe to $1.4465. But offers from semi official names capped the rally. Bids mentioned at $1.4395/90. Further demand noted at $1.4375/70 ahead of stronger area between $1.4350/35.

Data released:
03:30     Australia     RBA meeting announcement    4.75%    4.75%    4.75%
07:45     Italy     PMI services (June)    47.4    49.4    50.1
07:50     France     PMI services (June)    56.1    56.7    62.5
07:55     Germany     PMI services (June) seasonally adjusted    56.7    58.3    56.1
08:00     EU(17)     PMI services (June)    53.7    54.2    56.0
08:30     UK     CIPS services index (June)    53.9    53.5    53.8
09:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (May) adjusted    -1.1%    -1.0%    0.9%
09:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (May) adjusted Y/Y     -1.9%    -0.6%    1.1%
12:55     USA     Redbook (02.07)              
14:00     USA     Factory orders (May)    0.8%    1.0%    -0.9 (-1.2)%

The US currency advanced Tuesday on speculation China’s efforts to tame inflation will cool growth and damp demand for riskier assets.
The euro dropped for the first time in seven days versus the greenback after Moody’s Investors Service said banks rolling over Greek bonds into new securities may incur impairment charges.
The pound strengthened against the euro and the dollar after a report showed a measure of U.K. service PMI exceeded economists’ forecasts in June
A gauge of U.K. services growth based on a survey of companies rose to 53.9 from 53.8 in May. The median forecast was for a decline to 53.5.
The pound has slumped this year as Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron’s austerity measures to shrink the budget deficit crimp growth and inflation squeezes incomes at the fastest pace since the 1970s. Efforts to eliminate the bulk of the fiscal shortfall by 2015 involve the deepest spending cuts since World War II and more than 300,000 state-employee job losses.
The Bank of England will keep its main rate unchanged at 0.5% on July 7. Investors are betting the central bank won’t raise borrowing costs until after next May.
The Australian dollar weakened against the greenback after the South Pacific nation’s central bank left borrowing costs unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate target at 4.75% for a seventh straight meeting as signs of slower growth from Europe to China dimmed prospects for an acceleration in hiring at home.

EUR/USD fell to $1.4400 after long-lasting consolidation between $1.4460/00.

GBP/USD rose sharply from session lows around $1.5990 to $1.6030 before retreated to $1.6035.

USD/JPY rose from Y80.70 to Y81.30 before set stable around Y80.90/20.


In Europe today's focus will be on final EU GDP (Q1) reading with no changes expected (09:00 GMT). Later (at 10:00 GMT) Germany is due to report on manufacturing orders for May.
US data start at 14:00 GMT with ISM Non-mfg PMI for June.

USD/JPY weakens, currently holding around Y81.07. rate earlier was between the narrow range, limited by Y80.09-19. Bids at Y80.80/75 and Y80.65/60, a break here and stops sub Y80.50. On the topside stops through Y81.20/40, offers at Y81.55/60. The pair trades Y81.10.

GBP/USD rose strongly after the release of June UK PMI. Rate printed session high on $1.6128 and currently holds around the figure. Offers at $1.6140/45. Support sitting at $1.6005/00 with retail bids behind at $1.5985/70.

The U.S. dollar recovered on short covering on Tuesday while Asian stocks retreated from a one-month high.
The euro weakened, though it still held within striking distance of a one-month high against the U.S. dollar before a much expected interest rate increase on Thursday.

The Australian dollar languished near the day's lows after the central bank held interest rates at 4.75%, as widely expected. RBA also said the economy was unlikely to grow as strongly in 2011 as it first thought.
The RBA's dovish comments led to a short squeeze in the U.S. dollar.
The RBA's accompanying statement bolstered expectations for a moderate slowdown in Asia.
"It's a classic short squeeze in the dollar, but I don't think the recent 'risk-on' trend has changed because of this sharp move," said Tsutomu Soma, a senior manager at Okasan Securities. "Both the Aussie and euro were overbought, so many players simply wanted to lock in profits made on those rallies," Soma said.

EUR/USD holds stable around $1.4480 with trading range is limited by $1.4460-99. Stops below $1.4450, extending through $1.4415 ahead of $1.4380/75. Resistance at $1.4485/90 with a break here to open $1.4525/30.

USD/JPY holds higher - above Y81.00. The rate earlier broke through the overnight high (Y81.12) to print high around Y81.18. Support at Y80.80/75 and Y80.65/60. Resistance at Y81.20/30 and Y81.55/60. The rate currently trades Y81.12.

The euro weakened versus the yen after Standard & Poor’s said a debt-rollover plan for Greece may prompt a “selective default” rating for the country.
The euro earlier advanced on speculation the European Central Bank will increase interest rates this week. The ECB on July 7 will increase its benchmark rate to 1.5% from 1.25%, according to economists.
The Swiss franc declined after data showed retail sales fell 4.1% in May from a year earlier. The Swiss currency has advanced 9.3% versus the dollar this year as investors sought a haven amid the euro-area debt crisis.

EUR/USD: the pair   shown low in  $1.4490 area. Later the rate receded and finished session in $1.4540 area.

GBP/USD: the pair holds $1.6050-$ 1.6140.

USD/JPY: the pair holds Y80.50-Y80.90.

This morning sees the release of the final services PMIs from the main European states all expected to confirm the preliminary releases, with France at 0648GMT (56.7), Germany at 0653GMT (58.3) and the EMU data at 0658GMT (54.2). 

European data then rounds off at 0900GMT with EMU retail trade data for May. 

The UK data focus for the week remains on the PMI surveys. Friday's manufacturing PMI release showed what had been the one bright spot in the UK economic outlook coming rapidly off the boil, while the construction sector PMI on Monday came in above consensus but failed toimpress the markets amid some hopes for a higher number cisrulating in the morning. Services PMI is out at 0828GMT on Tuesday, completing the set for June and is expected to show a slight decline to 53.5 from 53.8 
last month.

US data starts at 1400GMT, US factory orders are expected to increase 1.0% in May on the already reported 1.9% increase in durable goods orders. 

Data released:
09:00     EU(17)     PPI (May)    -0.2%    -0.1%    0.9%
09:00     EU(17)     PPI (May)Y/Y    6.2%    6.3%    6.7%
USA     Independence Day             

The euro weakened versus the yen after Standard & Poor’s said a debt-rollover plan for Greece may prompt a “selective default” rating for the country.
The euro earlier advanced on speculation the European Central Bank will increase interest rates this week.  The ECB on July 7 will increase its benchmark rate to 1.5% from 1.25%, according to economists.
“Sentiment was undermined with those S&P comments,” said Jeremy Stretch at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “Markets are reluctant to aggressively sell the euro, though. We need to see what the other rating agencies are going to suggest.”
The Swiss franc declined after data showed retail sales fell 4.1% in May from a year earlier. The Swiss currency has advanced 9.3% versus the dollar this year as investors sought a haven amid the euro-area debt crisis.
“There is a response to domestic data, undoubtedly,” said Steve Barrow at Standard Bank Plc.

EUR/USD set stable around session lows after it earlier failed to go ahead the resistance at $1.4580. Rate holds at $1.4515/20.


GBP/USD fell under $1.6100from session highs on $1.6140 following the release of Construction PMI data.

USD/JPY recovered from session low on Y80.52 and currently holds around Y80.71.

Traders expect a low volume session, with US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday.

AUD/USD continues to recover, holding around $1.0750/55. Next level of resistance at $1.0770. Offers at $1.0815/20. On the downside bids at $1.0695/90 a break here to open $1.0625/20.

GBP/USD holds around $1.6123 following the construction PMI report as traders bought the rumour and sell the fact (53.6 versus the median 53.0). rate printed session high on $1.6140 with offers mentioned there.

Euro bears driving the region’s shared currency to its first two-month loss in a year are facing rising interest rates, bullish bets in futures markets and Angela Merkel’s determination to keep the 17-nation bloc intact.

The euro slid 4.2 percent since April as mounting concern that Greece would default drove Prime Minister George Papandreou to change finance ministers amid a push for 78 billion euros ($111 billion) in austerity measures to tap more financial aid. 

The slowing U.S. recovery has also provided support for the euro. The Fed lowered its full-year growth forecast last week, saying the economy will expand 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent versus a range of 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent estimated in April. The Bundesbank said on June 10 that German gross domestic product will rise 3.1 percent in 2011, up from a 2.5 percent increase predicted in February.

The first session of a three-day debate in Greece on new budget cuts is scheduled to begin today. A vote is expected on June 29. An implementation law, which provides the technical details of how the five-year plan will be applied, is also due to be discussed and approved by the deadline of June 30.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in $1,4100 area then become stronger.

GBP/USD: the pair shown low in $1,5910 area then become stronger.

USD/JPY: the pair become stronger in  Y80,80 area.

The euro was set for a third weekly decline against the dollar, the longest streak in four months, before European Union leaders conclude a summit in Brussels today on financing needs for debt-saddled Greece.

USD/JPY recovers after printing an hourly lows around Y80.60. Rate earlier declined from session high on Y80.80. Resistance at Y80.90/95 (Y80.94 - 16 June intraday high) with a break above opens Y81.05/10 where large offers placed. Initial bids at Y80.30/25.

GBP/USD probes a new session lows around $1.5948 with options were earlier mentioned at $1.5950. Stops at $1.5940. A break below opens the way to $1.5920. Next support at $1.5915 and then - barrier at $1.5900. Bids placed between $1.5880/85.

Looks like market decided to ignore the US Labor Department data on Jobless claims (+429k versus median +415k). Currently EUR/USD weakens, holding around session lows on $1.4164 amid EU summit. GBP/USD also under pressure after weak CBI data, trading around $1.5970.

Drops to $1.6150 on market react to dovish BOE Minutes, reacting more to the accompanying comments than the vote outcome, which was as expected. Market had been expecting a dovish release so was seen well positioned for the release. 

The euro retreated from its highest in a week after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a confidence vote amid investor concern that the government will struggle to pass austerity measures to stave off default.

The dollar fell as stocks and commodities rose, reducing demand for a refuge as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting.
The greenback weakened to the lowest versus the euro in almost a week. The shared currency rose as European leaders said a Greek default can be avoided amid speculation Prime Minister George Papandreou will win a confidence vote today. 
The euro rose as Greece’s Papandreou seeks to secure multiparty support for his government’s austerity measures. That is a condition for receiving aid needed to avoid a default. 
Greece needs parliamentary approval of a 78 billion-euro ($112 billion) package of budget cuts and asset sales.
The greenback remained weaker as National Association of Realtors data showed sales of existing homes decreased in May to the lowest level in six months.  Purchases of existing U.S. homes fell 3.8% to a 4.81 million annual pace last month, in line with estimates.
Meanwhile, economists forecast the Federal Open Market Committee will keep the benchmark interest rate at zero to 0.25 percent tomorrow, where it’s been since December 2008. 
Australia’s dollar declined after the nation’s central bank said domestic data had not added “any urgency” to the need for policy adjustment and it may be “prudent” to keep rates unchanged, according to minutes released today of a June 7 policy meeting.
The pound weakened as Bank of England Markets Director Paul Fisher said further bond purchases to stimulate the economy are possible.

Aussie is trading on a bid tone tracking EUR/USD higher. Support remains at $1.0540/30, ahead of bids behind at $1.0500/1.0490. Closest resistance at session high $1.0615/20, a break here opens $1.0675/80.

Cross has triggered stops through Y114.95 as the euro loses ground. Closest support eyed at Y114.70/65 (5-DMA/session low). A break here to open Y114.30 area. Offers remain at Y115.20/25.

EUR/USD  $1.4350, $1.4300, $1.4275, $1.4230
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.50, Y80.75, Y81.00, Y81.15
GBP/USD $1.6230, $1.6170
EUR/GBP stg0.8800
USD/CHF Chf0.8420
AUD/USD $1.0420, $1.0550, $1.0605, $1.0675
NZD/USD $0.8000

AUD/USD printed session high on $1.0580 and retreated to curent $1.0566. Offers remain around $1.0580 with a break above targets next offers at $1.0610/15. Bids sitting at $1.0545/50.

EUR/JPY continues to go higher after it triggered resistance between Y114.65/75. Ctoss printed a high of Y114.88. Next level of resistance comes at Y115.15/20, further - at Y115.65/70. Initial support is around Y114.65/55. Cross currency holds around Y114.80.

EUR/USD: $1.4200, $1.4345-50, $1.4400, $1.4125, $1.3925
USD/JPY: Y80.00, Y79.30, Y79.00, Y81.40
EUR/JPY: Y117.50
GBP/USD: $1.5950
AUD/USD: $1.0535, $1.0600
AUD/JPY: Y84.00

AUD/USD gets firmer to $1.0533, following the euro's gains. Initial support sitting at $1.0495/00. Resistance levels at $1.0575/80 with a break above opens a move towards $1.0610/15.

The euro recovered Monday amid hopes for some progress on Greece's debt crisis, but the common currency remained vulnerable to any news from Greece and EU officials comments.
EMU finance ministers began a two-day meeting on Sunday to decide whether to give a E12 billion tranche of emergency loans to Greece. They will also discuss proposals for a second bailout that could be worth some 120 billion euros.
On Friday, leaders of Germany and France held out hopes for the second rescue package after they agreed on how to involve private holders of Greek bonds.
"The EUR will continue to remain dependent on Greece. If news turns ugly ... we could see EUR/CHF extend further below the 1.1950 record low," BNP Paribas analysts say.
Markets are also closely watching the result of a vote of confidence faced by the newly reshuffled Greek cabinet.

The dollar also weakened against the yen. A FOMC meeting on June 21-22 is unlikely to offer any support for the dollar.
The U.S. central bank is expected to hold interest rates near zero for an extended period.

Euro rise after news from Greece lifted EUR/JPY to keep higher. Currently cross trades near Y114.36. Support mentioned under Y114.00 - at Y113.75 with a break under widens losses. While resistance may cap the rise at Y114.65/75.

GBP/USD recovered from session lows around $1.6109 to hourly highs on $1.6174 - key resistance (76.4% Fibo of $1.6194/1.6109 move). Rate currently trades around $1.6164. Set above $1.6160 opens a way to $1.6195/00.

EUR/GBP recovers from session lows around stg0.8796. Cross currently holds around stg0.8808. A break and clear below stg0.8800 to open a deeper move toward stg0.8775/70.

EUR/USD: $1.4200, $1.4345-50, $1.4400, $1.4125, $1.3925
USD/JPY: Y80.00, Y79.30, Y79.00, Y81.40
EUR/JPY: Y117.50
GBP/USD: $1.5950
AUD/USD: $1.0535, $1.0600
AUD/JPY: Y84.00