|
|
| 31.10 18:57 |
Dow +178.49 at 9359.18, Nasdaq +28.31 at 1726.83, S&P +20.43 at 974.52 |
| 31.10 18:57 |
RBSGC on US data
Dustin Reid, FX Strategist at RBSGC says "Chicago PMI hints at deeper
than normal recession" as "the details are about as bad as one could
script with employment, new orders and order backlogs all plunging."
Reid says this sets up for a very ugly ISM print, ests "the whisper
number at a 30-handle."
|
| 31.10 18:55 |
A number of banks are changing their BoE rate cut call for next week to 100bps
JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, BNP Paribas, HSBC and Goldman Sachs are also going for an
aggressive 100bps cut at the November 6 MPC meeting. The SONIA swap
curve is implying around 70bps worth of cuts for November.
|
| 31.10 18:48 |
Dow +185.02 at 9365.71, Nasdaq +31.73 at 1730.25, S&P +20.90 at 974.99
Stocks have drifted off their session highs. For a moment the Dow was
up 2.7%, the Nasdaq was up 2.3%, and the S&P 500 was up 2.8%.
Nine of the 10 economic sectors are trading with gains. Only the
defensive-oriented utilities sector (-0.1%) has failed to join the
bunch. Utilities have also logged one of the weakest week-to-date
performances, advancing 7.8% since Monday. Only healthcare has fared
worse by that measure, it is up 6.2% since Monday, but up 2.2% in this
session alone.
|
| 31.10 18:48 |
RBSGC says they would not be surprised to see the October ISM index fall to as low as 40.0. |
| 31.10 18:21 |
American focus:
The yen and the dollar rose against the euro and headed for record
monthly gains as signs of a global recession led investors to seek
safety.
Japan's currency also advanced after the Bank of Japan lowered the
target lending rate by 0.2 percentage point to 0.3 percent. The euro
fell as inflation in the 15 nations that share the currency slowed to
the lowest since January, making it easier for the European Central
Bank to lower borrowing costs.
``There's decent dollar repatriation, and you cannot fight the flows,''
said Steven Butler, director of foreign-exchange trading in Toronto at
Scotia Capital Inc., a unit of Canada's third-biggest bank. ``I cannot
remember any time that we had so much volatility and illiquidity.''
U.S. investors have cut their holding of foreign assets to 23.5 percent
of their portfolios by September from almost 26 percent earlier this
year, according to UBS.
As global growth will be very weak next year, we expect U.S.
repatriation by risk-averse investors will continue to benefit the
dollar.
Japan's currency has risen 17 percent against the euro in October, the
biggest monthly gain since the European currency's introduction in
1999. The dollar has increased a record 10.6 percent versus the euro.
The greenback is down 7.8 percent against the yen, the biggest decline
since 1998, when hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed.
The yen increased 4.8 percent to 64.24 against the Australian dollar
and 3.1 percent to 56.63 versus the New Zealand dollar today on
speculation the global economic slump will encourage investors to
unwind carry trades, in which they get funds from a country with low
borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher.
BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told a press briefing that the Japanese
economy had clearly worsened this month and that three dissenters had
wanted a quarter-point cut. One favored no reduction and four voted for
the move.
``The reluctance of the BoJ to join the more aggressive moves of the
Fed has hit risk appetite,'' analysts led by Hans- Guenter Redeker,
London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, wrote
in a client note. The move suggests the Japanese central bank ``is
nowhere near ready to introduce quantitative easing steps.''
The euro weakened as the European Union statistics office reported that
inflation in the countries sharing the currency eased to 3.2 percent in
October from 3.6 percent the prior month.
The ECB participated in a coordinated interest-rate reduction by global
central banks on Oct. 8 to prevent the international financial system
from collapsing, reducing its benchmark rate by a half-percentage point
to 3.75 percent.
Policy makers next meet Nov. 6, when they will probably cut the
region's main refinancing rate to 3.25 percent, according to the median
forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The pound weakened 1.7 percent to $1.6165 after London- based market
researcher GfK NOP said U.K. consumer confidence in October fell to the
lowest since at least 1974. Sterling has dropped 9.2 percent this
month, the biggest decline since investor George Soros drove the
currency out of Europe's system of linked exchange rates in 1992.
The Bank of England will lower its main rate by a half- point to 4
percent when it announces its next decision on Nov. 6.
|
| 31.10 18:17 |
Crude oil trades at $65.15, losses pared to less than $1.00 on the day after being down over $2.00 earlier. |
| 31.10 18:16 |
Dow +174.74 at 9355.43, Nasdaq +30.61 at 1729.13, S&P +20.54 at 974.63
Broad-based gains have taken the major indices to their highest levels
of the afternoon. At their current levels, the Dow, Nasdaq, and
S&P 500 are each looking to conclude the week with gains exceeding
11%.
The Dow is currently on pace for its best weekly advance in years.
As equities improve, Treasuries have been paring gains. The benchmark
10-year Note is currently up just 3 ticks after being up as many as 32
ticks.
|
| 31.10 17:47 |
RBS Greenwich Capital on US data
Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, says PI
report "has slight negative implications for the fourth quarter, as
outlays entered the period at a weaker level... household expenditures
by all accounts are plunging, and RBSGC expects real PCE to fall by
even more in Q4 than the 3.1% annualized drop recorded in Q3."
|
| 31.10 17:33 |
Dow -9.64 at 9171.05, Nasdaq -4.78 at 1693.74, S&P -3.67 at 950.42
Tech, which is currently the largest sector in the S&P 500, remains
a notable laggard. It is currently off by 1.0% this session, and down
almost 19% for the month.
Yahoo! (YHOO 13.12, +0.19) is trading higher, but is providing limited
help to the overall tech sector. Yahoo's gains come despite reports
that cast doubt on the possibility of a search deal with Google (GOOG
357.83, -1.86). Yahoo's interest in teaming up with Google stems from
trying to improve its competitiveness in the Internet search category.
However, if the deal is blocked by regulators, Yahoo could be looking
for other strategic alternatives. As such, many believe Yahoo should
reconsider merging with Microsoft (MSFT 22.32, -0.31), though no actual
announcements regarding such a matter have been made.
|
| 31.10 15:21 |
Nomura: "consumer spending looks to be headed for the steepest two quarter drop since the 1980 credit crunch recession." |
| 31.10 14:58 |
Dow +16.24 at 9196.93, Nasdaq -8.10 at 1690.42, S&P +0.98 at 955.07
A recent bout of buying sent stocks spiking upward, but the effort has encountered headwinds and caused stocks to ease back.
Financial stocks (+1.4%) are showing some leadership after lagging in
the prior session. The sector is being led by diversified banks
(+3.0%) other diversified financial service companies (+1.9%), like
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 38.96, +1.34). Analysts at Merrill Lynch recently
increased earnings estimates for JPMorgan.
Tech (-0.7%) remains an area of considerable weakness. Intel (INTC
15.74, -0.43) is down after disclosing that current financial
conditions could have a negative impact on its operations and,
therefore, its financial condition. Sun Microsystems (JAVA 4.59,
-0.70) is down considerably after posting a worse-than-expected loss
for its latest quarter.
|
| 31.10 14:44 |
European equity bourses have reversed earlier losses after U-Mich final consumer sentiment data.
CAC-40 is up 5pts (+0.13%), Xetra-DAX is up 90pts (+1.86%) and FTSE-100 is up 17pts (+0.39%).
|
| 31.10 14:25 |
Dow -38.16 at 9142.53, Nasdaq -22.18 at 1676.34, S&P -6.84 at 947.25 |
| 31.10 14:00 |
ECB. Bini-Smaghi: an interest rate cut in November is possible. |
| 31.10 13:56 |
US: Oct U-Mich final consumer sentiment 57.6 vs 57.5p and 70.3 Sept.
Shows fairly steady state over second half of Oct. 1y infl expectations
3.9% vs 4.5% prelim as gas prices fell - which also might be the reason the index held up.
|
| 31.10 13:46 |
US: Oct Chicago PM index 37.8 vs 56.7.
Components: Prices paid 53.7, New Orders 32.5, Production 30.9, Employment 41.5, Inventories 56.5.
|
| 31.10 13:22 |
Before the bell: Stocks set to open lower[M]
Futures are improved, but continue to indicate a negative tone: S&P
futures vs fair value: -6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.00.
September personal income was up 0.2%, which is slightly better than
the 0.1% increase that was expected. August personal income was
revised lower to reflect a 0.4% increase. Personal spending was down
0.3%, which is slightly worse than the consensus estimate of a 0.2%
decline. Spending in August was flat. September core personal
consumption expenditures deflator were up 0.2% month-over-month and up
2.4% year-over-year. Month-over-month figures were a bit better than
the expected increase of 0.1% and the year-over-year increase was
in-line with expectations. The PCE deflator was up 4.2%
year-over-year, just ahead of the 4.1% increase that was expected.
Barclays (BCS) is receiving a $12 billion capital infusion from
a group of investors from the Middle East, according to reports. The
Wall Street Journal is reporting that owed to regulatory concern a
search deal between Yahoo! (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) is looking less
likely. On the earnings front, Aon (AOC) topped earnings per share expectations, as did American Electric (AEP). Electronic Arts (ERTS) posted a loss for its latest quarter, but it was still in-line with expectations.
Oil prices declined $2.15 to $63.81 a barrel in electronic trading
By Thursday's close, the S&P 500 had plunged 204.8 points, or
18.2%, for the month. It's the eighth-worst month ever on a percentage
basis for the S&P 500, and the worst month on a point-decline
basis.
|
| 31.10 13:03 |
USD/JPY targets Y98.00
Holds Y97.80 area and has been steady in recent action
after an early NY session bounce stalled out a pip or three above
Y98.00, leaving some residual supply in place there with offers
reported in place to Y98.10 ahead of additional supply a big figure
higher. Yen on an upswing overnight after a BOJ rate cut was met with a
steep slide in the Nikkei and a subsequent hangover feel for global
equities.
|
| 31.10 12:34 |
US data
Employment cost index (Q3) 0,7% PCE price index ex food, energy (September) Y/Y 2,4% PCE price index ex food, energy (September) 0,2% Personal spending (September) -0,3% Personal income (September) 0,2%
|
| 31.10 12:31 |
European session: [M]
The yen and the dollar rose, heading for record monthly gains against
the euro, as signs of a global recession prompted investors to sell
higher-yielding currencies.
Japan's currency also advanced after the Bank of Japan lowered interest
rates by 20 basis points to 0.3 percent, compared with forecasts for a
cut to 0.25 percent. The euro fell as the European Union statistics
office in Luxembourg today said inflation in the 15 nations that share
the currency slowed to the lowest since January, giving the European
Central Bank more room to lower rates.
The yen climbed to 124.50 per euro as of 7:04 a.m. in New York from
127.31 yesterday. Against the dollar, it was at 97.58 from 98.61. The
Japanese currency may trade at 95 to the dollar in the next week, Cole
said. The dollar rose 1.3 percent versus the euro to $1.2743.
The yen has risen 17 percent against the euro in October, heading for
it biggest monthly gain since the European currency's introduction in
1999. The dollar has gained 10.6 percent versus the euro in the month.
The greenback is down 9 percent against the yen, the biggest decline
since 1998, when hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed.
The pound weakened to $1.6203 from $1.6451. Against the Australian
dollar, the yen advanced to 64.24 from 67.27. It also rose to 56.27
versus the New Zealand dollar from 58.35.
U.K. consumer confidence in October fell toward the lowest since at
least 1974, London-based researcher GfK NOP Ltd. said today. The U.S.
economy shrank in the third quarter by the most since 2001, data showed
yesterday.
Policy makers meet Nov. 6, when they will probably cut the region's
main refinancing rate by half a percentage point to 3.25 percent,
according to a Bloomberg survey of 26 economists.
The euro stayed lower as inflation in the countries sharing the
currency eased to 3.2 percent in October from 3.6 percent the month
before, matching the median of 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey
The yen remained higher after the BOJ lowered its benchmark rate to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent,
``The reluctance of the BoJ to join the more aggressive moves of the
Fed has hit risk appetite,'' analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker,
London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, wrote
in a client note. The move suggests the Japanese central bank ``is
nowhere near ready to introduce quantitative easing steps.''
Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told a press briefing that the Japanese
economy had clearly worsened this month and that three dissenters had
wanted a quarter-point cut. One favored no reduction and four voted for
the move.
``We remain concerned about British pound given the deteriorating
economic outlook in the U.K., and recent signals from the BoE suggest
scope for more aggressive easing than previously,'' wrote New
York-based Sophia Drossos, a strategist at Morgan Stanley in a research
note yesterday.
EUR/USD having tested a mark $1,2700, the pair has raised in area $1,2740.

GBP/USD having opened in the field of $1,6400, the pair has shown low in area $1,6150 where it continues to be consolidated further.
USD/JPY the yen could become stronger up to level Y96,30, then скорретировалась in area Y97,80.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the third-quarter 2008 Employment Cost
Index, personal income, expenditures and PCE core price index for
September. Personal income is expected to rise only 0.1% in September,
as payrolls fell 159,000, hourly earnings rose only 0.2% and the
average workweek was cut 0.1 to 33.6 hours. PCE is expected to fall
0.2% in
September, as retail motor vehicle sales fell 3.8% and non-auto retail
sales fell 0.6% on widespread declines. The core PCE price index is
forecast to rise 0.1%.The ECI is expected to rise 0.7% in the third
quarter, same as the previous two quarters.
At 1345 GMT the Chicago PMI is due, which is expected to fall to a
reading of 48.0 in October from 56.7 in September . At 1400GMT, the
Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to
be unrevised at 57.5 in late-October.
|
| 31.10 12:02 |
RBSGC expects Oct payrolls at -220,000 and an unemployment rate of 6.3%. |
| 31.10 11:42 |
A number of economists are commenting on Fed rate cut and additional swap lines.
BAS said Fed seemed to suggest additional cuts.ML says there is now a Bernanke put for bonds and "Fed has retained a de facto easing bias." JPM said Fed's "statement gave no hint that going below 1.0% would be met with strong resistance."
|
| 31.10 11:21 |
JPY/USD techs:
Resistance 3: Y100.55 Resistance 2: Y99.70 Resistance 1: Y99.00 Current price: Y97.77 Support 1: Y96.30 Support 2: Y94.30 Support 3: Y90.90 Comments:
Tech on yen hasn't changed. The nearest support is presented by a level
38,2%FIBO growth Y90,90-Y99,70 on Y96,30. Below possible decrease to
Y94,30 (61,8 %). Overcoming of the given mark will open road to October
24 low on Y90,90. The nearest resistance is located in the field of a
session high on Y99,00. Above is located the yesterday's high on
Y99,70. Overcoming of the given level will open road to Y100,55 (low of
October 17 and high October 22).
|
| 31.10 11:01 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1750 Resistance 2: Chf1.1660 Resistance 1: Chf1.1540 Current price: Chf1.1497 Support 1: Chf1.1340 Support 2: Chf1.1220 Support 3: Chf1.1120 Comments:
The pair could not overcome resistance in the field of Chf1,1540 (area
200 МА for H1). Above Chf1,1540 is possible growth to Chf1,1660
(October 28 high) and further to Chf1,1750 (high of October 24). As the
nearest support acts area Chf1,1340 (area of a sessional low, and also
a level of 38,2 % FIBO of growth Chf1,0685-Chf1,1750). Below the level
of 50,0 % on Chf1,1220 is located. Overcoming of the given mark will
open road to Chf1,1100/20 (61,8 %, and also area of October 10 low).
|
| 31.10 10:46 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.6880 Resistance 2: $1.6500 Resistance 1: $1.6500 Current price: $1.6215 Support 1: $1.6145 Support 2: $1.5810 Support 3: $1.5265 Comments:
The pound has renewed decrease against dollar. The nearest support
$1,6145 (38,2 % FIBO of growth $1,5265-$ 1,6675). Below the level
$1,5810 (61,8 %) is located. Successful overcoming of this mark will
open road to $1,5265 (lows of October 24 and 27). The nearest
resistance is presented by a level $1,6500. Above is possible growth in
area $1,6650 which is a level 61,8%FIBO falling $1,7520-$ 1,5265.
Overcoming of the given mark will open road to $1,6880 (76,4 %).
|
| 31.10 10:23 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.3070 Resistance 2: $1.2915 Resistance 1: $1.2810 Current price: $1.2745 Support 1: $1.2700 Support 2: $1.2590 Support 3: $1.2330 Comments:
The dollar has continued to become stronger against euro. The nearest
support is located in the field of 61,8 % FIBO of growth $1,2330-$
1,3290 on $1,2700. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to a
level $1,2590 (76,4 %). Below return to lows on $1,2330 is possible.
Intermediate resistance is presented by a level 38,2%FIBO falling
$1,3290-$1,2740 on $1,2590. Overcoming of the given mark will open road
to $1,3070 (61,8 %). Above is located The yesterday's high on $1,3290.
|
| 31.10 10:01 |
Е15 data
Unemployment (September) 7.5% Harmonized CPI (October) Y/Y 3.2%
|
| 31.10 09:44 |
Orders
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6665/75, $1.6490/00, $1.6390/00
Bids $1.6100/10, $1.5975, $1.5920/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y100.00/20, Y99.75, Y99.00/05
Bids Y96.00/30, Y92.00/10
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2895/00, $1.2785/00
Bids $1.2665, $1.2600/30, $1.2580/90
|
| 31.10 09:33 |
CRUDE OIL:
Crude oil prices are back under pressure as rebounding Dollar trade weighted index weighs on sentiment as well as weaker global economic outlook. Crude oil is currently down 34% on the month and is set for its biggest monthly fall ever. WTI Nymex crude oil is a $63.46, down $2.50.
|
| 31.10 09:33 |
Asian session: [M]
The yen and the dollar rose, heading for
record monthly gains against the euro, as signs of a global recession
prompted investors to sell higher-yielding currencies. U.K.
consumer confidence in October fell toward the lowest since at least
1974, London-based researcher GfK NOP Ltd. said today. The U.S. economy
shrank in the third quarter by the most since 2001, data showed
yesterday. The yen remained higher after the BOJ lowered its
benchmark rate to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent, compared with forecasts
for a cut to 0.25 percent. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told a press
briefing that the Japanese economy had clearly worsened this month and
that three dissenters had wanted a quarter-point cut. One favored no
reduction and four voted for the move. The dollar gained versus
the euro on speculation overseas investors in U.S. stocks cut bets
against the greenback at the end of the month to keep their currency
hedge ratios constant, according to Shaun Osborne, chief currency
strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. The Standard & Poor's
500 Index is down more than 18 percent in October. The European
Central Bank participated in a coordinated interest-rate reduction by
global central banks on Oct. 8 to prevent the collapse of the global
financial system, reducing its benchmark rate by half a point to 3.75
percent. Policy makers meet Nov. 6, when they will probably cut
the region's main refinancing rate by half a percentage point to 3.25
percent, according to a survey of economists. The British pound
declined 8.4 percent this month, headed for its biggest drop since
October 1992, on speculation the Bank of England will lower interest
rates as the economy slows. The U.K. will be trapped in a
recession throughout next year and deflation may take hold if interest
rates don't drop soon and ``significantly,'' BOE policy maker David
Blanchflower said on Oct. 29. The British central bank will lower
benchmark rates by a half-point to 4 percent when it announces its next
decision on Nov. 6, according to a survey of economists.
EUR/USD having tested a mark $1,2700, the pair has raised in area $1,2740.
 GBP/USD having opened in the field of $1,6400, the pair has shown low in area $1,6150 then has slightly raised. USD/JPY the yen could become stronger up to level Y96,30, then it was corrected in area Y96,80.
At 1000 GMT E15 Harmonized CPI (October) and Unemployment (September)is due. US data starts at 1230GMT with the third-quarter 2008 Employment Cost
Index, personal income, expenditures and PCE core price index for
September. Personal income is expected to rise only 0.1% in September,
as payrolls fell 159,000, hourly earnings rose only 0.2% and the
average workweek was cut 0.1 to 33.6 hours. PCE is expected to fall
0.2% in September, as retail motor vehicle sales fell 3.8% and non-auto
retail sales fell 0.6% on widespread declines. The core PCE price index
is forecast to rise 0.1%.The ECI is expected to rise 0.7% in the third
quarter, same as the previous two quarters.
At 1345 GMT the Chicago PMI is due, which is expected to fall to a
reading of 48.0 in October from 56.7 in September . At 1400GMT, the
Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to
be unrevised at 57.5 in late-October.
|
| 31.10 09:14 |
FOREX. Thursday summary [M]
The dollar gained versus the euro, erasing earlier losses, on
speculation foreign investors in U.S. stocks bought the dollar at the
end of the month to keep their currency hedge ratios constant, said
Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in
Toronto.
``Foreign investors buying U.S. equities sell the dollar as a hedge,''
said Osborne. ``Because the value of the stocks has declined so much,
they have to buy back the dollar to maintain their hedge ratios.''Gross
domestic product shrank 0.3 percent in the third quarter, its biggest
decline since the 2001 recession, the Commerce Department reported
today in Washington. The median forecast of economists was for a 0.5
percent drop.
The yen fell against the dollar as global interest-rate cuts sparked
gains in stocks, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets funded by
loans in Japan.
Japan's currency also weakened on speculation the Bank of Japan will reduce borrowing costs tomorrow.
EUR/USD having shown high on $1,3290, pair on results of session down in area $1,2850.

GBP/USD positions of pound in relation to dollar for yesterday's
session practically have not changed. Having opened the tenders in the
field of $1,6390, the pair has finished session on a mark $1,6359.
USD/JPY
the pair bargained within the limits of Y97,20-Y99,00. The rate has
finished the tenders of Thursday in the field of the top border of a
range.
At 1000 GMT E15 Harmonized CPI (October) and Unemployment (September)is due.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the third-quarter 2008 Employment Cost
Index, personal income, expenditures and PCE core price index for
September. Personal income is expected to rise only 0.1% in September,
as payrolls fell 159,000, hourly earnings rose only 0.2% and the
average workweek was cut 0.1 to 33.6 hours. PCE is expected to fall
0.2% in September, as retail motor vehicle sales fell 3.8% and non-auto
retail sales fell 0.6% on widespread declines. The core PCE price index
is forecast to rise 0.1%.The ECI is expected to rise 0.7% in the third
quarter, same as the previous two quarters.
At 1345 GMT the Chicago PMI is due, which is expected to fall to a
reading of 48.0 in October from 56.7 in September . At 1400GMT, the
Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to
be unrevised at 57.5 in late-October.
|
| 31.10 08:56 |
JAPAN STOCKS:
Japan's benchmark stock indices ended the morning sharply lower, as a late post-BOJ sell-off sent the Nikkei 225 to close at the day's low. The Nikkei was down 452.78 points, or 5.01%, at 8576.98. The broader-based TOPIX was down 32.25 points at 867.12. A bad month for Tokyo stocks, October 2008. Despite a near 25% rally off the intraday lows seen earlier this week, the Nikkei 225 ended the month down 24% - the biggest percentage monthly fall on.
|
| 31.10 08:32 |
Stock market: Thursday summary [M]
Japan stocks soared, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to its sharpest three-day advance in at least 38 years, as a gain in commodity prices and a weaker yen boosted the profit prospects for resource companies and carmakers. Mitsubishi
Corp. and Mitsui & Co., trading companies that get more than half
their profit from commodities, soared more than 12 percent. Mazda Motor
Corp., which exports 80 percent of its production, jumped 25 percent,
the most in at least three decades, after the yen weakened to 99.12
against the dollar. Mobile carrier Softbank Corp. surged by its limit
of 13 percent after saying it will generate positive cash flow from
this year. The Nikkei 225 climbed 817.86, or 10 percent, to close at
9,029.76 in Tokyo, the fourth-biggest gain in its 59-year history. The
broader Topix index rose 69.05, or 8.3 percent, to 899.37. The Nikkei
had fallen 41 percent in the past six months, steeper than the Standard
& Poor's 500 Index's 33 percent slide and a 34 percent drop in
Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index. The Nikkei 225 posted a
three-day gain of 26 percent, the steepest since Nikkei Inc. took over
the benchmark from the Tokyo Stock Exchange in July 1970. Even so, the
measure is on track to record its worst month in that history, losing
19 percent. Six of the 10 biggest moves in the gauge in that period
occurred this month, including a record 14 percent jump on Oct. 14. Inpex
Corp., Japan's biggest oil explorer, climbed 10 percent to 549,000 yen,
while closest rival Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. added 7.5 percent
to 4,040 yen. Crude oil for December delivery climbed 4.3 percent to $70.38 a barrel, after having risen the most in a month yesterday
European stocks rallied for a third day as
central banks from Washington to Hong Kong cut interest rates and the
Federal Reserve provided $120 billion to South Korea, Singapore, Brazil
and Mexico to unlock lending in emerging markets. BHP Billiton Ltd.
and Xstrata rose at least 5 percent as lower borrowing costs bolstered
prospects for the global economy. Deutsche Bank AG soared 18 percent
and Alcatel-Lucent SA jumped 20 percent and after the companies
reported better-than-expected earnings. The Stoxx 600 increased
1.2 percent to 216.24, as almost four stocks gained for every one that
fell. The index is still down 41 percent in 2008, headed for the worst
year since records began in 1987.
The stock market
settled with a 1.1% loss Wednesday after a late-session surge made in
the final hour following an FOMC rate cut was reversed in the final
minutes of trade after headlines hit the wires that raised concerns
regarding General Electric's (GE 19.20, -0.29) revenue in 2009.
Meanwhile, commodities made the strongest gains on record as the dollar
got hammered. Specifically, the S&P 500 was up 3.1% with 10
minutes left in the session and then quickly sank to a 1.8% loss before
settling with a decline of 1.1%. Small- and mid-cap stocks outperformed
with gains of 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. The Federal Open Market
Committee cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 1.00%. This
marks the lowest level since June 2004. The discount rate was reduced
by 50 basis points to 1.25%. Both actions were unanimously approved.
The Fed said the pace of economic activity has "markedly" slowed as
consumer expenditures declined, while inflation pressures are expected
to moderate due to the drop in commodity prices and weaker economic
prospects. The FOMC believes that over time this action, along with
the Fed's other measures, will help promote moderate economic growth.
The announcement did not give any surprises, and left the possibility
for further rate cuts. Separately, the Fed established temporary
currency swap lines with the central banks of Brazil, Mexico, South
Korea and Singapore. The move is meant to improve liquidity and
complement the Fed's current swap lines with 10 other central banks. Seven of the 10 sectors posted a loss. Consumer
staples stocks trailed the broader market even though Procter &
Gamble (PG 61.33, -1.90), Kraft (KFT 28.47, -0.41 ) and Kellogg (K
50.02, -0.66) all reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings
results. The telecom (-3.3%) sector was a laggard after Qwest (Q
2.33, -0.27) reported worse-than-expected quarterly earnings and said
it was cutting 1,200 jobs, or 3% of its workforce. The consumer
discretionary sector outperformed on a relative basis with a decline of
0.1%. Casino and gaming stocks soared 11.5% after MGM Mirage (MGM
13.75, +3.42) reported an earnings drop and outlook that was
better-than-feared. Commodities rallied across the board in a
rebound trade that was compounded by a 2.7% drop in the dollar. Crude
oil prices spiked 9.8% to $68.90 per barrel, getting an added lift
after the government's weekly energy report showed a
smaller-than-expected increase in crude inventory levels. As a result, the energy (+2.3%) and material (+2.7%) sectors posted the largest gain this session. In
economic news, September durable goods orders rose 0.8%, better than
the expected decline of 1.1%. Excluding transportation, durable goods
orders fell 1.1%, which was better than the expected decline of 1.5%.
However, nondefensive capital goods excluding aircraft, which is a
proxy for business investment, fell 1.4%.
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| 31.10 08:17 |
BOJ SHIRAKAWA: Recent big economy, market changes led to rate cut
- Japan recovery depends heavily on world economy - See unwinding of unsustainable global growth - I honor market functions, price-finding capacity. - 3 board members called for rate cut to 0.25% - 1 board member called for unchanged rates - Differences slight among members seeking cuts. - Very low interest rate to hurt market functions - Decided to call for rate cut just before meeting - Yen rise affects firms; not only economic factor - No comment on how Yen rise affected decision - Felt no political pressure at all on decision.
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| 31.10 08:01 |
JPY/USD techs:
Resistance 3: Y100.55
Resistance 2: Y99.70
Resistance 1: Y99.00
Current price: Y97.03
Support 1: Y96.30
Support 2: Y94.30
Support 3: Y90.90
Comments: The yen has reacted to decrease by the central bank of the
country of a discount rate by growth against dollar. The nearest
support is presented by a level 38,2%FIBO growth Y90,90-Y99,70 on
Y96,30. Below possible decrease to Y94,30 (61,8 %). Overcoming of the
given mark will open road to October 24 low on Y90,90. The nearest
resistance is located in the field of a session high on Y99,00. Above
is located the yesterday's high on Y99,70. Overcoming of the given
level will open road to Y100,55 (low of October 17 and high October 22).
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| 31.10 07:43 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1750
Resistance 2: Chf1.1540
Resistance 1: Chf1.1480
Current price: Chf1.1491
Support 1: Chf1.1340
Support 2: Chf1.1220
Support 3: Chf1.1120
Comments: The pair tests resistance which is located in the field of a
yesterday's high on Chf1,1480. Above is possible growth to Chf1,1540 (a
level 200 МА for Н1) and further to Chf1,1750 (October 24 high). As the
nearest support acts area Chf1,1340 (area of a sessional low, and also
a level of 38,2 % FIBO of growth Chf1,0685-Chf1,1750). Below the level
of 50,0 % on Chf1,1220 is located. Overcoming of the given mark will
open road to Chf1,1100/20 (61,8 %, and also area of October 10 low).
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| 31.10 07:19 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.6880
Resistance 2: $1.6500
Resistance 1: $1.6500
Current price: $1.6173
Support 1: $1.6145
Support 2: $1.5810
Support 3: $1.5265
Comments: The pound has renewed decrease against dollar. The nearest
support $1,6145 (38,2 % FIBO of growth $1,5265-$ 1,6675). Below the
level $1,5810 (61,8 %) is located. Successful overcoming of this mark
will open road to $1,5265 (lows of October 24 and 27). The nearest
resistance is presented by a level $1,6500. Above is possible growth in
area $1,6650 which is a level 61,8%FIBO falling $1,7520-$ 1,5265.
Overcoming of the given mark will open road to $1,6880 (76,4 %).
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| 31.10 06:57 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.3290
Resistance 2: $1.3070 Resistance 1: $1.2950 Current price: $1.2705 Support 1: $1.2700 Support 2: $1.2590 Support 3: $1.2330 Comments:
The dollar gained versus the euro on speculation foreign investors in
U.S. stocks bought the dollar at the end of the month to keep their
currency hedge ratios constant. At the moment the pair tests support in
the field of 61,8 % FIBO of growth $1,2330-$ 1,3290 on $1,2700.
Overcoming of the given mark will open road to a level $1,2590 (76,4
%). Below return to lows on $1,2330 is possible. Intermediate
resistance is presented by a level 38,2%FIBO falling $1,3290-$ 1,2740
on $1,2590. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to $1,3070
(61,8 %). Above is located The yesterday's high on $1,3290.
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| 31.10 06:45 |
Daily History for Okt 30, 2008
High Low Close EUR/USD 1.3295 1.2802 1.2863 USD/JPY 99.12 97.19 98.60 GBP/USD 1.6672 1.6209 1.6359 USD/CHF 1.1479 1.1200 1.1444
EUR/JPY 131.01 127.77 126.86 EUR/GBP 0.8011 0.7838 0.7860 GBP/JPY 165.12 158.17 161.25 GBP/CHF 1.8813 1.8482 1.8719
Change % Change Last Nikkei +817.86 +9.96% 9,029.76 Topix +69.05 +8.30% 899.37 FTSE +49.11 +1.16% 4,291.65 DAX +60.61 +1.26% 4,869.30 CAC +5.25 +0.15% 3,407.82 DOW +189.89 +2.11% 9,180.85 NASDAQ +41.31 +2.49% 1,698.52 S&P 500 +23.94 +2.57% 954.03 10yr Note +0.6500 +0.168% 3.939% NYMEX Crude Oil -1.54 -2.28% 65.96 Gold -15.50 -2.06% 738.50
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| 31.10 06:25 |
Schedule for today, Friday, Okt 31, 2008
00:01 UK Gfk consumer confidence (October) -36 -37 -32 03:30 Japan BoJ meeting announcement 0.30% 0,50% 0,50% 05:00 Japan Construction orders (September) Y/Y 10,3% -0,3% 05:00 Japan Housing starts (September) Y/Y 54,2% 53,6% 10:00 Е15 Unemployment (September) 7,6% 7,5% 10:00 Е15 Harmonized CPI (October) Y/Y 3,1% 3,6% 12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (August) 0.7% 12:30 USA Employment cost index (Q3) 0,7% 0,7% 12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (September) Y/Y 2,6% 12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (September) 0,2% 12:30 USA Personal spending (September) -0,2% 0,0% 12:30 USA Personal income (September) 0,1% 0,5% 13:45 USA Chicago PMI (October) 48,0 56,7 13:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (October) final 57,5 57,5
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