|
|
| 30.10 19:06 |
Dow +150.06 at 9141.02, Nasdaq +37.18 at 1694.39, S&P +18.52 at 948.61
Trading remains choppy. The major indices have been unable to put
together a sustainable afternoon rebound that will take them back to
early session highs.
Though trading with a healthy gain, the financial sector continues to
lag the broader market. Financials are currently up 1.0%, but were up
3.5% at their best level of the session.
AIG (AIG 1.65, +0.10) disclosed it has applied for participation in the
Federal Reserve's commercial paper funding facility. The company has
already drawn down more than $85 billion in loans from the fed,
according to sources, which is more than it initially planned. AIG is
one of the worst faring companies this year; its shares are down more
than 95% year-to-date.
|
| 30.10 18:55 |
UBS Economics revised their Fed call for a -25 cut on December 16th followed by -25 on January 28th.
"We were prompted
by yesterday's rate cut to 1.0%, the bleak assessment of current
prospects, and a forward looking assessment that downside risks remain."
|
| 30.10 18:37 |
USD/JPY keep positive mood
Trading around Y98.55 area after seeing lows
around the London fixing at Y97.40, the dollar recovering with euro-yen
as US stocks rebuild gains in early afternoon trading. Dollar to find
stops sub the overnight low although one trader suspects that demand
interest will emerge ahead of there. Offers up at Y99.00 although
traders will remain mindful of the Japanese seller than capped at
Y98.80 in morning US trading.
|
| 30.10 18:36 |
Dow +186.30 at 9177.26, Nasdaq +40.28 at 1697.49, S&P +22.31 at 952.40
The stock market has advanced to its best level of the afternoon,
though it is still well short of the 3.6% advance it was touting early
on. There is no clear catalyst behind the move, but the advance is
broad based.
Small-cap stocks are showing some of the best gains. The Russell 2000 is currently up 3.2%.
|
| 30.10 18:33 |
CRUDE OIL: Continues to nurse losses of about $2 bbl, trades at $65.40 and still well above morning lows at $64.04. |
| 30.10 18:17 |
ECB: Weber says market problems were underestimated and crisis has worsened in recent weeks. |
| 30.10 18:16 |
Dow +120.11 at 9111.07, Nasdaq +26.93 at 1684.14, S&P +14.36 at 944.45
The major indices continue to chop along. Gains remain impressive, but
the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are off their session highs. Each
index traded more than 3% higher in the early going.
Crude prices continue to trade lower. Crude futures are now down 3.7%
to $65 per barrel. Their prices are down more than 30% year-to-date.
Despite the downturn in oil prices, energy stocks are trading up 1.7%,
which is slightly ahead of the broader market. Oil and gas refiners
(+6.5%) are among the energy sector's best performers.
|
| 30.10 17:59 |
A number of economists are commenting on Fed rate cut and additional swap lines.
BAS said Fed seemed to suggest
additional cuts.ML says there is now a Bernanke put for bonds and "Fed
has retained a de facto easing bias." JPM said Fed's "statement gave no
hint that going below 1.0% would be met with strong resistance."
|
| 30.10 17:51 |
American focus: dollar gains despite GDP drop.[M]
The dollar gained versus the euro, erasing earlier losses, on
speculation foreign investors in U.S. stocks bought the dollar at the
end of the month to keep their currency hedge ratios constant, said
Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in
Toronto.
``Foreign investors buying U.S. equities sell the dollar as a hedge,''
said Osborne. ``Because the value of the stocks has declined so much,
they have to buy back the dollar to maintain their hedge ratios.''Gross
domestic product shrank 0.3 percent in the third quarter, its biggest
decline since the 2001 recession, the Commerce Department reported
today in Washington. The median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg News was for a 0.5 percent drop.
``The easing bias in the U.S. is going to continue,'' said Paresh
Upadhyaya a portfolio manager in Boston at Putnam Investments, which
manages $50 billion in currency assets.
The yen fell against the dollar as global interest-rate cuts sparked
gains in stocks, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets funded by
loans in Japan.
Japan's currency also weakened on speculation the Bank of Japan will reduce borrowing costs tomorrow.
``The market is getting benefits from all the positive measures the
central banks are taking,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international
currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets
Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``I see risk appetite improving in a
choppy fashion in the coming month and some moderate weakness in the
dollar and the yen.''
|
| 30.10 17:38 |
RBSGC expects Oct payrolls at -220,000 and an unemployment rate of 6.3%. |
| 30.10 17:13 |
Dow +60.78 at 9051.74, Nasdaq +12.82 at 1670.50, S&P +7.24 at 937.79
Stocks recently fell into negative ground, but recently pulled upward.
One of the session's weakest performers is Cigna (CI 15.30, -4.55).
The company issued downside guidance upon announcing its latest
results. The stock is also one of the hardes hit this year. Going
into this session, the stock had already posted a total year-to-date
return of -63%. Rumors are also circulating that a tier one firm has
downgraded the stock to Sell.
|
| 30.10 16:35 |
Dow +85.55 at 9076.51, Nasdaq +19.10 at 1676.31, S&P +10.80 at 940.89
Concerted efforts by central banks to improve liquidity in credit and
capital markets has helped the session's bullish sentiment. Following
the FOMC's decision yesterday to cut the fed funds target rate to 1.00%
from 1.50%, central banks in Asia followed by trimming target rates as
well. In addition to the rate cuts, the Fed opened dollar swap lines
with certain central banks, including Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea.
Underscoring the session's positive tone is the fact gainers in the S&P 500 outnumber losers by a margin of 4-to-1.
Apple (AAPL 109.66) is one of the best performers in the S&P 500.
Its shares have rebounded 15% since Monday's closing. The stock has
been hit particularly hard as investors fear consumers will be less
willing to pay for gadgets like iPods, iPhones, or Apple's personal
computers and laptops, which typically cost more than those of
competitors.
|
| 30.10 16:35 |
WTI Nymex crude oil dipped below Y65.00 as Dollar trade weighted index extends bounce.
Support is at the 5-day moving average at $64.70 and
break below here is seen pressuring recent low at $61.30. WTI Nymex
crude oil is currently at $65.15, down $2.35 on session.
|
| 30.10 15:29 |
Goldman affirms ests that payrolls fell 250K in October and jobless rate rose 0.3 to 6.4%. |
| 30.10 14:57 |
Dow +118.60 at 9109.56, Nasdaq +25.12 at 1682.33, S&P +16.74 at 946.83
Gains remain healthy, but the major indices continue trending downward.
Commodities are down after jumping in the prior session. Oil futures
are indicated 2.9% lower, trading near $65.50 per barrel. The CRB
Commodity Index is down 0.9% at 271.90.
|
| 30.10 14:29 |
Crude oil prices have reversed earlier gains as dollar trade weighted index gains post US Q3 GDP data.
WTI Nymex crude
oil is at $66.90, down 60 cents.
|
| 30.10 14:02 |
Morgan Stanley on US Q3 GDP
Morgan Stanley says Q3 GDP at -0.3% "was very close to expectations,"
but had 4 surprises that were "roughly offsetting." Federal government
purchases and nonresidential construction were high and inventories
and net exports advanced less than anticipated. "The shortfall in
inventories has positive implications for Q4." MS ests Q4 at -3.2%.
|
| 30.10 13:50 |
Dow +233.05 at 9224.01, Nasdaq +46.26 at 1703.47, S&P +28.65 at 958.74 |
| 30.10 13:38 |
RDQ Economics says Q3 GDP was as expected
"We think the fourth quarter will be very weak (a contraction of
between 2% and 3%) as global weakness hits U.S. exports and as firms
cut back on inventories in the face of weak consumer spending."
|
| 30.10 13:20 |
Before the bell: Stocks set to rally.[M]
Futures head even higher following smaller-than-expected drop in GDP, record profits from oil giant Exxon.
S&P futures vs fair value: +29.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value:
+26.00. Exxon Mobil (XOM) posted strong profits, which were helped by
special gains. Waste Management (WMI) issued upside earnings per share
results of its own. CBS (CBS) also topped expectations.
Economy: A preliminary reading on third-quarter gross domestic product
revealed the U.S. economy shrank 0.3% on an annual basis, compared with
a 2.8% increase in the previous quarter. Economists were anticipating a
decline of 0.5%
World markets: Overseas markets rallied. Asian shares surged, with
South Korea's KOSPI index gaining a record 12%. European markets were
higher in midday trading.
Oil prices edged up $1.51 a barrel to $69.01 in electronic trading
|
| 30.10 13:03 |
ECB ORDONEZ: ECB may cut rates in November
German, Spanish inflation slowing.
|
| 30.10 12:59 |
ECB WELLINK: Says European growth closer to 0% than 1% in 2009. |
| 30.10 12:32 |
US data
GDP (Q3) preliminary Y/Y -0.3% PCE price index ex food, energy (Q3) preliminary 2,9% PCE price index (Q3) preliminary 5,6% Jobless claims (week to 25.10) 479K 475К
|
| 30.10 12:00 |
European session: [M]
The dollar and the yen fell as a wave of global interest-rate cuts sparked a rally in Asian stocks, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
The greenback slid for a third day against the euro after the Federal
Reserve reduced its target lending rate to 1 percent and agreed to
provide $30 billion each to the central banks of Brazil, Mexico, South
Korea and Singapore. The yen dropped to a one-week low versus the
European currency on speculation the Bank of Japan will lower borrowing
costs when it meets tomorrow. South Korea's won jumped the most in a
decade.
``The significant easing of monetary policy will help the global growth
outlook,'' said Tony Morriss, a senior currency strategist at Australia
& New Zealand Banking Group in Sydney. ``We're seeing a major
correction of the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen. They were among the key
beneficiaries of the flight to quality that's being unwound.''
U.S. policy makers reduced the fed funds target by a half- percentage
point to 1 percent yesterday, matching a level reached in June 2003 and
before that during the Dwight Eisenhower administration in the late
1950s.
Gross domestic product shrank by 0.5 percent in the third quarter for
its biggest decline since the 2001 recession, data due at 8:30 a.m.
today in Washington will show, according to a Bloomberg News survey of
economists.
``The Fed is doing what it can given a weakening U.S. economy,'' said
Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. based
in Tokyo. ``This puts the focus on the interest-rate differential, and
that will force the dollar to go lower.''
The U.S. central bank has cut its benchmark rate from 5.25 percent in
the past 13 months and created six lending programs channeling more
than $1 trillion into the financial system to limit the severity of a
looming recession.
``The easing bias in the U.S. is going to continue,'' said Paresh
Upadhyaya at Putnam Investments in Boston, which manages $50 billion in
currency assets. The Australian dollar rose to 67.39 U.S. cents from
66.81 cents yesterday in New York on speculation a rate cut in China,
the world's largest consumer of industrial metals, will boost demand
for Australia's exports.
The yen also declined as investors speculated that the Bank of
Japan will cut borrowing costs tomorrow. It slumped the most since 1974
and stocks rallied after the Nikkei newspaper said Oct. 28 that policy
makers are leaning toward lowering rates.
``Selling orders for the yen are piling up,'' said Mitsuru Sahara,
senior currency sales manager at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a
unit of Japan's biggest publicly traded lender. ``Stocks are looking
strong, and that takes some safe- haven flows away from the yen. A
possible BOJ rate cut is also a negative.''
EUR/USD from area of a session high on $1,3255 the pair has decreased in area $1,3050.
GBP/USD having shown high on $1,6670., the pair has receded in area $1,6450.
USD/JPY the rate bargained within the limits of range Y96,05-Y98,00.

US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims and the
advance third-quarter 2008 GDP. Jobless claims are expected to fall
3,000 to 475,000 in the October 25 week, remaining very high even the
impact of recent hurricanes is removed. The advance estimate for third
quarter GDP calls for a 0.5% annual rate decline, after a rebound in
the second quarter. Late US data also sees the 2030GMT release of M2 money supply for the October 20 week.
|
| 30.10 11:40 |
BAS: "The Committee stated, "downside risks to growth remain," usually an indicator that more easing is likely." |
| 30.10 11:21 |
JPY/USD techs:
Resistance 3: Y102.35 Resistance 2: Y100.55 Resistance 1: Y99.70 Current price: Y98.62 Support 1: Y97.65 Support 2: Y96.30 Support 3: Y94.30 Comments:
Tech on yen hasn't changed. Resistance is a yesterday's high on Y99,70.
Overcoming of the given level will open road to Y100,55 (low of October
17 and high of October 22). Above is possible return to a high of
October 20 on Y102,35. The nearest support - area of 200 МА (for Н1) on
Y97,65 (besides the given mark also is a level of 23,6 % FIBO of growth
Y90,90-Y99,70). Overcoming of the given level will open road to support
in the field of Y96,30 (38.2 %). Below possible falling in area Y94,30
(61,8 %).
|
| 30.10 10:59 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1475 Resistance 2: Chf1.1410 Resistance 1: Chf1.1330 Current price: Chf1.1271 Support 1: Chf1.1220 Support 2: Chf1.1120 Support 3: Chf1.0980 Comments:
The pair remains in the field of former levels. The pair tests
resistance in the field of 50,0 % FIBO of growth Chf1,0685-Chf1,1750.
Overcoming of the given mark will open road to Chf1,1100/20 (61,8 % and
also area of low of October 10) and further to Chf1,0980. The nearest
resistance is located in the field of 23,6 % FIBO of falling
Chf1,1750-Chf1,1200 on Chf1,1330. Above is possible growth to Chf1,1410
(38,2 %) and further to Chf1,1475 (50,0 %).
|
| 30.10 10:57 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.7100 Resistance 2: $1.6800 Resistance 1: $1.6650 Current price: $1.6611 Support 1: $1.6350 Support 2: $1.6110 Support 3: $1.5790 Comments:
Changes of a tech on this currency pair has not occured. The pound
remains in the field of resistance on $1,6650 which is a level of 61,8
% FIBO of falling $1,7520-$ 1,5265.Overcoming of the given mark will
open road to $1,6880 (76,4 %) and further to $1,7100 (area of October
20 low). The nearest support - area of a session low and also a high of
October 23 on $1,6350 (except for that the given mark is a level of
23,6 % FIBO of growth $1,5265-$ 1,6650). Further decrease to $1,6110
(38,2 %) and to $1,5790 (61,8 %) is possible.
|
| 30.10 10:49 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.3745 Resistance 2: $1.3530 Resistance 1: $1.3290 Current price: $1.3142 Support 1: $1.3000 Support 2: $1.2700 Support 3: $1.2590 Comments:
After an output of data on consumer confidence of Е15 euro has receded
about session high, but as a whole tech hasn't changed. The dollar has
continued to lose the positions after yesterday's decision FOCM on
decrease in a discount rate on 50 bp to a level of 1,00 %. Intermediate
resistance is presented by area of a session high and a low of October
20 on $1,3290. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to $1,3530
(area of October 16, 17 and 20 high). Above is located strong area of
resistance on $1,3745/70 ($1,3745 a level of 38,2 % FIBO of falling
$1,6030-$ 1,2330, $1,3770 - area of October 9 and 14 high). As the
nearest support acts the area of yesterday's resistance on $1,3000 (a
yesterday's high). Overcoming of the given mark will open road to a
level of 61,8 % FIBO of growth $1,2330-$ 1,3290 on $1,2700. Below
possible falling to $1,2590 (76,4 %).
|
| 30.10 10:04 |
E15 data
Industrial Confidence (October) -18 Economic Confidence (October) 80,4 Consumer Confidence (October) -24
|
| 30.10 09:46 |
Orders
EUR/GBP Offers stg0.8125, stg0.8050, stg0.8000/15 Bids stg0.7900/10, stg0.7840/60
EUR/JPY Offers Y131.00/10 Bids Y129.00, Y126.75, Y125.50, Y123.90/00
GBP/USD Offers $1.6665/75 Bids $1.6525/35, $1.6350, $1.5920/50
USD/JPY Offers Y100.00/20, Y99.75, Y99.00/00 Bids Y98.00/50, Y96.00/20, Y92.00/10
EUR/USD Offers $1.3300, $1.3250 Bids $1.3135/50, $1.2945
|
| 30.10 09:27 |
EUROPEAN STOCKS:
European equity bourses are in positive territory early Thursday session, but off their best levels. Mining/oil stocks are higher on back of recent recovery in underlying commodity markets. Xetra-DAX is outperforming after German jobless data came in weaker than expected. Volkswagen and Deutsche Bank are key gainsers, with the latter reporting a suprise Q3 profit after the new accounting rule change which allows it to book fewer asset writedowns, say traders. CAC-40 is up 14pts (+0.41%), Xetra-DAX is up 117pts (+2.38%) and FTSE-100 is up 4pts (+0.08%).
|
| 30.10 09:08 |
Asian session: [M]
The dollar and the yen fell as a wave of global interest-rate cuts sparked a rally in Asian stocks, bolstering demand for higher-yielding assets. The
greenback slid for a third day against the euro after the Federal
Reserve reduced its target lending rate to the lowest in half a
century. The yen dropped to a one-week low versus the European currency
on speculation the Bank of Japan will lower borrowing costs when it
meets tomorrow. South Korea's won jumped the most in a decade after the
Fed provided funds to alleviate a shortage of dollars in the nation. The ICE's Dollar Index,
which tracks the greenback against the euro, the yen, the pound, the
Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona, fell 2 percent,
extending the biggest decline since October 1998. It touched the
highest level since April 2006 on Oct. 28. U.S. policy makers
reduced the fed funds target by a half- percentage point to 1 percent
yesterday, matching a level reached in June 2003 and before that during
the Dwight Eisenhower administration in the late 1950s. Gross
domestic product shrank by 0.5 percent in the third quarter for its
biggest decline since the 2001 recession, data due at 8:30 a.m. today
in Washington will show, according to a Bloomberg News survey of
economists. The U.S. central bank has cut its benchmark rate from
5.25 percent in the past 13 months and created six lending programs
channeling more than $1 trillion into the financial system to limit the
severity of a looming recession. The Australian dollar rose
to 68.63 U.S. cents from 66.81 cents late yesterday in New York on
speculation a rate cut in China, the world's largest consumer of
industrial metals, will boost demand for Australia's exports. The yen fell against higher-yielding currencies as Asian stocks gained on speculation monetary officials across the globe can thaw a seizure in credit markets. The yen also declined
as investors speculated that the Bank of Japan will cut borrowing costs
tomorrow. The currency slumped the most since 1974 and stocks rallied
after the Nikkei newspaper said Oct. 28 that policy makers are leaning
toward lowering rates.
EUR/USD the pair is consolidated in the field of a session high $1,3130-$ 1,3290.

GBP/USD having opened in area $1,6380, the pair has shown high
above a mark $1,6600. At present the rate bargains in the field of
$1,6600. USD/JPY the rate has slightly become stronger. At present the pair bargains within the limits of Y97,90-Y99,10.
At 1000GMT, the Eurozone economic sentiment index, business climate
indicator for October is due. The economic sentiment index is expected
to slip to 85.5 with industry confidence at -14 and consumer confidence
at -21. US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims and
the advance third-quarter 2008 GDP. Jobless claims are expected to fall
3,000 to 475,000 in the October 25 week, remaining very high even the
impact of recent hurricanes is removed. The advance estimate for third quarter
GDP calls for a 0.5% annual rate decline, after a rebound in the second
quarter. Late US data also sees the 2030GMT release of M2 money supply
for the October 20 week.
|
| 30.10 08:37 |
SocGen: «Further rate cuts are possible only if financial markets remain very strained as they have been in the last month." |
| 30.10 08:03 |
JAPAN STOCKS:
Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's session sharply higher, as major European bourses bounced in the wake of the Fed's 50 bps rate cut. The Nikkei 225 gained 817.86 points, or 9.96%, to stand at 9029.76. The broader-based TOPIX was ahead by 69.05 points at 899.37. The Nikkei has now rallied by almost 30% since hitting a 26-year intraday low in Tuesday's session.
|
| 30.10 07:58 |
Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. (October) 7,5%
Unemployment Change (October) -26К
|
| 30.10 07:48 |
Stock market: Wednesday summary [M]
Japan's stocks surged a second day as speculation the Bank of Japan
will cut rates spurred the yen's steepest drop in three decades,
boosting earnings prospects for makers of cars and electronics. Honda
Motor Co., which said the rising yen led to a plunge in quarterly
profit, jumped 18 percent, the most in at least 34 years, while Toyota
Motor Corp., now trading below book value, rose 10 percent. Panasonic
Corp., the largest maker of consumer electronics, climbed 4.6 percent
after second-quarter profit beat its estimate, while consumer lender
Promise Co. rose the most in eight years after lifting its profit
forecast by a quarter. The Nikkei climbed 589.98, or 7.7 percent,
to close at 8,211.90 in Tokyo, building on yesterday's 6.4 percent
advance. The broader Topix index added 46.29, or 5.9 percent, to
830.32, with more than five stocks rising for each that slumped. The
Bank of Japan may cut its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point
to 0.25 percent, Nikkei English News said, and the Federal Reserve will
announce its decision on interest rates as early as today. Central
banks are trying to stem a global market rout that has wiped out $13
trillion in share values this month, threatening to drag the world
economy into a recession. Industrial output will fall more than 2
percent this month and next, Japan's Trade Ministry said today, while
the Finance Ministry cut its economic assessment on all the nation's 11
regions for the first time since 1998.
European stocks
gained for a second day as falling credit costs spurred a rally in
financial shares, while higher commodity prices pushed up oil and
metals producers. National benchmark indexes climbed all of
the 18 western European markets except for Germany. The U.K.'s FTSE 100
added 8.1 percent. France's CAC 40 increased 9.2 percent. Germany's DAX
lost 0.3 percent, dragged down by Volkswagen. Daimler AG surged 21 percent after Merrill Lynch & Co. said the
carmaker's shares were ``oversold'' following a 45 percent slump this
month. Royal
Bank of Scotland, the U.K.'s fourth-largest lender, climbed 13 percent
to 64 pence. Allianz, Europe's biggest insurer, rallied 26 percent to
60.85 euros. Axa, the region's second-largest insurer, jumped 18
percent to 14.15 euros. The London interbank offered rate, or
Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in dollars
fell 5 basis points to 3.42 percent, its 13th straight drop. The rate
is down 140 basis points since Oct. 10. The comparable euro rate fell 2
basis points to 4.83 percent, the 15th consecutive decline, and losing
lost 56 basis points since Oct. 8, BBA data showed. Rio Tinto
Group, the third-biggest mining company, rose 19 percent to 2,677
pence. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest, gained 14 percent to 960
pence. Copper for delivery in three months climbed as much as 14
percent to $4,670 a metric ton, extending yesterday's 2.7 percent gain.
Volkswagen tumbled 45 percent to 517 euros after its biggest
shareholder, Porsche SE, said it will take steps to increase the supply
of stock after a so-called short-squeeze spurred a fourfold rally in
the past two days. Porsche soared 37 percent to 63.05 euros. Deutsche
Boerse AG, operator of the Frankfurt stock exchange, said late
yesterday it will reduce Volkswagen's weighting in the benchmark DAX
index to 10 percent after the stock's surge.
The stock
market settled with a 1.1% loss Wednesday after a late-session surge
made in the final hour following an FOMC rate cut was reversed in the
final minutes of trade after headlines hit the wires that raised
concerns regarding General Electric's (GE 19.20, -0.29) revenue in
2009. Meanwhile, commodities made the strongest gains on record as the
dollar got hammered. Specifically, the S&P 500 was up 3.1%
with 10 minutes left in the session and then quickly sank to a 1.8%
loss before settling with a decline of 1.1%. Small- and mid-cap stocks
outperformed with gains of 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. The Federal
Open Market Committee cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points to
1.00%. This marks the lowest level since June 2004. The discount rate
was reduced by 50 basis points to 1.25%. Both actions were unanimously
approved. The Fed said the pace of economic activity has "markedly"
slowed as consumer expenditures declined, while inflation pressures are
expected to moderate due to the drop in commodity prices and weaker
economic prospects. The FOMC believes that over time this action,
along with the Fed's other measures, will help promote moderate
economic growth. The announcement did not give any surprises, and left
the possibility for further rate cuts. Separately, the Fed
established temporary currency swap lines with the central banks of
Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore. The move is meant to improve
liquidity and complement the Fed's current swap lines with 10 other
central banks. Seven of the 10 sectors posted a loss. Consumer
staples stocks trailed the broader market even though Procter &
Gamble (PG 61.33, -1.90), Kraft (KFT 28.47, -0.41 ) and Kellogg (K
50.02, -0.66) all reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings
results. The telecom (-3.3%) sector was a laggard after Qwest (Q
2.33, -0.27) reported worse-than-expected quarterly earnings and said
it was cutting 1,200 jobs, or 3% of its workforce. The consumer
discretionary sector outperformed on a relative basis with a decline of
0.1%. Casino and gaming stocks soared 11.5% after MGM Mirage (MGM
13.75, +3.42) reported an earnings drop and outlook that was
better-than-feared. Commodities rallied across the board in a
rebound trade that was compounded by a 2.7% drop in the dollar. Crude
oil prices spiked 9.8% to $68.90 per barrel, getting an added lift
after the government's weekly energy report showed a
smaller-than-expected increase in crude inventory levels. As a result, the energy (+2.3%) and material (+2.7%) sectors posted the largest gain this session. In
economic news, September durable goods orders rose 0.8%, better than
the expected decline of 1.1%. Excluding transportation, durable goods
orders fell 1.1%, which was better than the expected decline of 1.5%.
However, nondefensive capital goods excluding aircraft, which is a
proxy for business investment, fell 1.4%.
|
| 30.10 07:36 |
JPY/USD techs:
Resistance 3: Y102.35
Resistance 2: Y100.55
Resistance 1: Y99.70
Current price: Y98.62
Support 1: Y97.65
Support 2: Y96.30
Support 3: Y94.30
Comments: Growth of world shares puts pressure up on the Japanese yen.
Resistance is a yesterday's high on Y99,70. Overcoming of the given
level will open road to Y100,55 (low of October 17 and high of October
22). Above is possible return to a high of October 20 on Y102,35. The
nearest support - area of 200 МА (for Н1) on Y97,65 (besides the given
mark also is a level of 23,6 % FIBO of growth Y90,90-Y99,70).
Overcoming of the given level will open road to support in the field of
Y96,30 (38.2 %). Below possible falling in area Y94,30 (61,8 %).
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| 30.10 07:15 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1475 Resistance 2: Chf1.1410 Resistance 1: Chf1.1330 Current price: Chf1.1242 Support 1: Chf1.1220 Support 2: Chf1.1120 Support 3: Chf1.0980 Comments:
The dollar sustains losses before data under US GDP which can show,
that rates of growth of the largest national economy in the third
quarter were negative. Data under gross national product leave today at
12:30 GMT. The pair tests resistance in the field of 50,0 %FIBO of growth Chf1,0685-Chf1,1750. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to Chf1,1100/20 (61,8 % and also area of low of October 10) and further to Chf1,0980. The nearest resistance is located in the field of 23,6 % FIBO of falling Chf1,1750-Chf1,1200 on Chf1,1330. Above is possible growth to Chf1,1410 (38,2 %) and further to Chf1,1475 (50,0 %).
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| 30.10 07:07 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.7100 Resistance 2: $1.6800 Resistance 1: $1.6650 Current price: $1.6575 Support 1: $1.6350 Support 2: $1.6110
Support 3: $1.5790 Comments: The pound tests the nearest area of
resistance on $1,6650 which is a level of 61,8 % FIBO of falling
$1,7520-$ 1,5265. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to
$1,6880 (76,4 %) and further to $1,7100 (area of October 20 low). The
nearest support - area of a session low and also a high of October 23
on $1,6350 (except for that the given mark is a level of 23,6 % FIBO of
growth $1,5265-$ 1,6650). Further decrease to $1,6110 (38,2 %) and to
$1,5790 (61,8 %) is possible.
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| 30.10 07:01 |
UK Nationwide house price index (October) -1,4%; Y/Y -14,6% |
| 30.10 06:45 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.3745 Resistance 2: $1.3530 Resistance 1: $1.3290 Current price: $1.3170 Support 1: $1.3000 Support 2: $1.2700 Support 3: $1.2590 Comments:
The dollar has continued to lose the positions after yesterday's
decision FOCM on decrease in a discount rate on 50 bp to a level of
1,00 %. Intermediate resistance is presented by area of a session high
and a low of October 20 on $1,3290. Overcoming of the given mark will
open road to $1,3530 (area of October 16, 17 and 20 high). Above is
located strong area of resistance on $1,3745/70 ($1,3745 a level of
38,2 % FIBO of falling $1,6030-$ 1,2330, $1,3770 - area of October 9
and 14 high). As the nearest support acts the area of yesterday's
resistance on $1,3000 (a yesterday's high). Overcoming of the given
mark will open road to a level of 61,8 % FIBO of growth $1,2330-$
1,3290 on $1,2700. Below possible falling to $1,2590 (76,4 %).
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| 30.10 06:30 |
Daily History for Okt 29, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.2992 1.2622 1.2969
USD/JPY 99.71 96.06 97.35
GBP/USD 1.6674 1.5939 1.6395
USD/CHF 1.1587 1.1252 1.1274
EUR/JPY 127.27 121.38 126.26
EUR/GBP 0.8002 0.7833 0.7908
GBP/JPY 161.20 153.30 159.62
GBP/CHF 1.8668 1.8328 1.8484
Change % Change Last Nikkei +589.98 +7.7% 8,211.90 Topix +46.29 +5.9% 830.32 FTSE +316.16 +8.05% 4,242.54 DAX -14.76 -0.31% 4,808.69 CAC +287.65 +9.23% 3,402.57 Dow -74.16 -0.82% 8,990.96 NASDAQ +7.74 +0.47% 1,657.21 S&P -10.42 -1.11% 930.09 10yr Note +0.5400 +0.141% 3.874% NYMEX Crude Oil +4.77 +7.60% 67.50 Gold +13.50 +1.82% 754.00
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| 30.10 06:17 |
Schedule for today, Thursday, Okt 30, 2008
02:00 New Zealand Business Confidence (October) -42,4 1,6 07:00 Germany ILO employment change (September) -1,2% 07:00 Germany Total retail sales (September), Y/Y 3,3% 07:00 Germany Total retail sales (September) +42К 07:00 Germany Wholesale sales (September) real adjusted Y/Y -1,6% 07:00 Germany Wholesale sales (September) real adjusted 0,5% 07:00 UK Nationwide house price index (October) Y/Y -12.4% 07:00 UK Nationwide house price index (October) -1.7% 08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. (October) 7,6% 08:55 Germany Unemployment Change (October) -29К 10:00 Е15 Industrial Confidence (October) -12 10:00 Е15 Economic Confidence (October) 85,5 87,7 10:00 Е15 Consumer Confidence (October) -19 12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (Q3) preliminary 2,2% 12:30 USA PCE price index (Q3) preliminary 4,3% 12:30 USA GDP (Q3) preliminary Y/Y -0,5% 2,8% 12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 25.10) 475К 478К 20:30 USA M2 money supply (20.10), bln +43,6 23:30 Japan Household spending (September) real Y/Y -4,0% 23:30 Japan Unemployment (September) 4,2% 23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI ex fresh food (October) Y/Y 1,7% 23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (October) Y/Y 1,4% 23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (October) 0,3% 23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI ex fresh food (September) Y/Y 2,4% 23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (September) Y/Y 2,1% 23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (September) 0,3%
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