Goldman's were previously forecasting MPC to cut rates by 25bps in November and then by a further 75bp next year to a trough of 3.5%.

Goldman Sachs now expect the Refi rate to "trough at 2.0% by the end of Q1, with a possibility of an unprecedented 1-handle during the spring of 2009", writes Erik Nielson at GS. Goldman's now see a 50bps rate cut in November, another 50bps in December, followed by 25bp in each month during Q1 -- "but, needless to say, the exact path down to 2% is somewhat uncertain, but it'll be fast and furious as the ECB plays its most obvious remaining card in the fight against the financial tsunami. The exact timing of the cuts will largely dependent on market events between now and spring"...."If Euroland consumers were to continue boosting their savings into the spring and summer of 2009, preventing private consumption from picking up (if ever so moderately), then the ECB might well decide to go below 2% for some time", says GS.

The major indices are on the retreat. The decline is mostly broad-based, with notable weakness in energy (-2.5%) and financials (-1.8%).
Merrill Lynch (MER 15.67, -0.18) left its quarterly dividend unchanged at $0.35 per share, which is equivalent to an annual yield of 8.8% at current prices. Merrill Lynch previously agreed to be acquired by Bank of America (BAC 21.08, +0.01).

Economists at Goldman say Sept new home sales could move either way. They "expect a bounce of 2.5% for September, though not with a great deal of conviction given how horrible all the other September indicators have been." They point out Plus or minus 10k is "hardly a meaningful difference, and suggest watching inventory data.

"Although the Census Bureau logs a home as sold because a contract has been signed, it does not follow up with the builder to see if the home sale actually closed. When a buyer elects to cancel his or her contract and not purchase the home, the NHS data does not reflect the cancellation."

The major indices surge higher and then run into some modest resistance. Still, each major index is up at least 1%.
Retail stocks (+3.1%) are leading the way. Home Depot (HD 19.32, +0.80), Target (TGT 34.30, +1.38) and Lowe's (LOW 17.63, +0.43) are all exhibiting strength.

The yen rose to the strongest level versus the euro since May 2002 and traded near a 13-year high against the dollar as global economic turmoil encouraged investors to sell higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said in an interview with Bloomberg News that the Group of Seven doesn't plan to intervene to weaken the yen after the G-7 said in an unscheduled statement that excessive movements in the currency may threaten financial stability. The pound slid after an industry report showed U.K. house prices slumped.
``It's a combination of unwinding carry positions and money going home to Japan and the U.S.,'' said Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``It's not an environment where one should be looking for return on capital, but for return of capital.''
In the past month, Japan's currency has increased 14 percent against the dollar, 33 percent versus the euro, 55 percent versus the Australian dollar and 44 percent against the New Zealand dollar on speculation investors will unwind carry trades, in which they get loans in countries with low borrowing costs and seek higher returns elsewhere.
Stocks in Asia and Europe tumbled as investors bet the credit crisis and mounting bank losses will lead to a global recession. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index sank as much as 15 percent, and trading was halted in the Philippines and Thailand. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 0.1 percent.
The euro stayed lower against the dollar and the yen after a survey by the Ifo institute showed business confidence in Germany, the largest of the 15 economies sharing the currency, declined to the lowest level in more than five years in October. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said policy makers may cut interest rates at their Nov. 6 meeting.
The dollar is reasserting its status as the world's reserve currency as investors seek a haven from plunging emerging-market stocks and bonds. The ICE futures exchange's Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major trading partners, soared to the highest in more than two years. The sell-off in emerging markets may ``set the stage'' for bigger gains, according to Barclays Capital.

Stocks seesawed Monday, as investors worried about a global recession but also welcomed the start of the government's efforts to shore up the financial system.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 0.5% around two hours into the session, after having been on both sides of breakeven earlier. A more than 10% rally in component Verizon following its profit report paced the Dow's advance.

With just one week left in October, the Dow is down 22.8%, the S&P 500 is down 24.8% and the Nasdaq is down 25.5%. All three major stock gauges are at five-year lows.
Treasury prices rose modestly, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.67% from 3.68% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill, seen as the safest place to put money in the short term, slipped to 0.83% from 0.86% late Friday, showing investors would rather see little return on their money than risk the stock market.
Last month, the 3-month yield reached a 68-year low around 0%, as investor panic hit its peak.
Dow component Verizon Communications reported higher quarterly earnings that met estimates on higher sales that beat forecasts. Verizon shares jumped 10%.
U.S. light crude oil for December delivery fell $1.21 to $62.96 a barrel.
COMEX gold for December delivery rose 70 cents to $731 an ounce.

The Dow and S&P 500 briefly trade in positive ground before going back on the retreat. The Dow is outperforming on a relative basis, benefiting from strength in Verizon (VZ 27.65, +2.56).
Retailers (+1.6%) are showing strength. Home Depot (HD 19.09, +0.58) saw a boost following the better-than-expected new home sales report. Target (TG 34.26, +1.34T) is also outperforming, even though it had its earnings estimates cut at Citigroup, according to the AP.

Morgan Stanley's economist Ted Wieseman says home sales rebounded somewhat in Sept and one reason was "the Treasury's mortgage finance support measures briefly brought mortgage rates down sharply."

The stock market is in the red with nine of the ten economic sectors posting a loss. Tech (-1.6%) and energy (-3.0%) stocks are posting the largest decline. Crude oil futures are down 2.3% to $62.64 per barrel as global economic concerns continue to take a toll on prices. The current level is an improvement from earlier lows, when prices were down 4.4% at $61.30 per barrel.

Lifts to Y93.70 area as euro-yen rebounds with US stocks where Dow has lifted to gains from losses. Cross remains shy of Y117.00 as dovish remarks from Trichet undercut that pair. Dollar offers still eyed at Y94.50.

The major indices only trade in positive territory briefly, as selling pressure quickly sends the major indices back into the red. Still, current levels are an improvement from opening lows.
Regional banks (+5.2%) are showing notable strength. Several regional banks accepted roughly $28 billion in capital injections from the Treasury, Bloomberg.com reports. Some of the banks named in the report include SunTrust (STI 36.16, +1.05), KeyCorp (KEY 10.91, +0.79) and PNC Financial Services (PNc 59.97, +1.09). Capital One (COF 36.25, +0.95) was also named as a recipient.
Telecom (+1.8%) is outperforming after Verizon (VZ 27.25, +2.14) reported in-line earnings results. Verizon posted a 4.8% year-over-year increase in third quarter earnings per share, as strength in cellular and FIOS helped offset weakness in its traditional telecom business.

Evidence Suggests Cause For Concern

The stock market kicks off the week on a low note as overseas markets tumble. Still, opening losses are an improvement from earlier futures market indications.
Japan's Nikkei fell 6.4% to its lowest closing level since 1982 as traders worried that the strengthening yen will take a toll on Japanese exporters. The recent sharp rally in the yen prompted the G-7 to issue a statement warning about the "excessive gains" in the currency. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 12.7%.
South Korea cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 4.25%, which was its largest cut ever.
The major European bourses are trading with losses ranging from 1.8% to 4.2%.
The dollar is up 0.9% as it gains against European currencies. The yen continues strengthen against the dollar.

Dow futures now off only 64 points vs 155 an hour+ ago and vs 300+ point losses earlier in the morning. Nasdaq futures are down just 5 points.

The U.K. pound fell as London-based Hometrack Ltd. said the average cost of a residential property in England and Wales slipped 7.3 percent from a year earlier
The euro stayed lower against the dollar and the yen after a survey by the Ifo institute showed business confidence in Germany, the largest of the 15 economies that share the currency, declined to the lowest level in more than five years in October.
The yen rose more than 2 percent against the dollar for a second day, trading near a 13-year high, as tumbling stock markets prompted investors to sell higher-yielding assets funded with loans in Japan.
The Japanese currency also strengthened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, two favorites for the so- called carry trade. The Group of Seven nations said yesterday excessive yen movements may threaten financial stability and Japan's Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said his country is ready to act. The pound slid against the dollar, euro and yen after a report showed U.K. house prices slumped.
In the past month, Japan's currency has jumped 15 percent against the U.S. currency, 35 percent versus the euro, 58 percent against the Australian dollar and 46 percent versus the New Zealand dollar as traders slashed carry trades. In such transactions, investors get loans in low interest-rate countries to take advantage of higher returns elsewhere. Japan's benchmark rate of 0.5 percent compares with 6 percent in Australia and 6.5 percent in New Zealand.
Japan last sold its own currency in March 2004.
Futures traders increased bets that the yen will gain against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
The dollar also fell against the yen as traders increased bets the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week before data that may show the world's largest economy shrank the most since 2001.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 100 percent chance the Fed will cut its 1.5 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point on Oct. 29. Futures showed no chance of lower rates a month ago.
U.S. gross domestic product contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the three months through September, according to the median estimate before the Commerce Department releases data on Oct. 30.

EUR/USD the pair has updated two years low having reached a mark $1,2330 then it was corrected in area $1,2450. Bids $1.2325, $1.2300/10. Offers $1.2540/45.
GBP/USD the rate has tested area of Friday’s low on $1,5265 then has receded in area $1,5430. Offers $1.5470, $1.5600. Bids $1.5260/80.
USD/JPY having shown low below level Y92,00, the pair has returned to area of mark Y93,00. Offers Y94.45/50.

US data starts at 1400GMT, US new home sales are expected to slow modestly to a 450,000 annual rate in September after falling sharply in August. Tight credit conditions and financial market turmoil
is keeping buyers away. The supply of new homes remains high relative to sales, keeping prices on a downward spiral.

Peter Kretzmer, sr economist at Bank of America, says at the FOMC meeting, "forecasts for economic growth and inflation will be revised downward while the unemployment forecast will be revised upward. The FOMC will continue easing, most likely with a 25 BP move, although the recently low effective funds rate and futures market expectations raise the possibility of 50 BP. We expect consumer spending to continue declining in coming months."

The U.K. pound fell as London-based Hometrack Ltd. said the average cost of a residential property in England and Wales slipped 7.3 percent from a year earlier
The euro stayed lower against the dollar and the yen after a survey by the Ifo institute showed business confidence in Germany, the largest of the 15 economies that share the currency, declined to the lowest level in more than five years in October.
The yen rose more than 2 percent against the dollar for a second day, trading near a 13-year high, as tumbling stock markets prompted investors to sell higher-yielding assets funded with loans in Japan.
The Japanese currency also strengthened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, two favorites for the so- called carry trade. The Group of Seven nations said yesterday excessive yen movements may threaten financial stability and Japan's Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said his country is ready to act. The pound slid against the dollar, euro and yen after a report showed U.K. house prices slumped.
``These moves are due to extreme risk aversion, and have further legs,'' said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. ``The credit bubble has truly burst and we're seeing panic selling of risky assets that were bought with yen.''
In the past month, Japan's currency has jumped 15 percent against the U.S. currency, 35 percent versus the euro, 58 percent against the Australian dollar and 46 percent versus the New Zealand dollar as traders slashed carry trades. In such transactions, investors get loans in low interest-rate countries to take advantage of higher returns elsewhere. Japan's benchmark rate of 0.5 percent compares with 6 percent in Australia and 6.5 percent in New Zealand.
``We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability,'' the G-7 said in a statement read by Japan's Nakagawa today. Japan urged the G-7 to issue the statement, he said.
Japan last sold its own currency in March 2004.
Futures traders increased bets that the yen will gain against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
The dollar also fell against the yen as traders increased bets the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week before data that may show the world's largest economy shrank the most since 2001.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 100 percent chance the Fed will cut its 1.5 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point on Oct. 29. Futures showed no chance of lower rates a month ago.
U.S. gross domestic product contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the three months through September, according to the median estimate before the Commerce Department releases data on Oct. 30.

Resistance 3: Y95.90
Resistance 2: Y95.30
Resistance 1: Y94.50
Current price: Y93.36
Support 1: Y91.90
Support 2: Y90.90
Support 3: Y88.00
Comments: Tech on yen hasn't changed. The nearest support is the area of a session low on Y91,90. Below possible falling to a Friday's low on Y90,90 and further to Y88,00 (area of August 1995 low). The nearest resistance is levels 50,0%FIBO of Friday's decrease on Y94,50 (and also area of a session high). Above is possible growth to Y95,30 (61,8 %) and further to Y95,90 (area of Thursday's low).

Resistance 3: Chf1.1880
Resistance 2: Chf1.1780
Resistance 1: Chf1.1700
Current price: Chf1.1603
Support 1: Chf1.1580
Support 2: Chf1.1480
Support 3: Chf1.1420
Comments: Tech on USD/CHF hasn't changed. As the nearest support acts the area of a sessionllow on Chf1,1580. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to a Friday's low on Chf1,1480 and further to area Chf 1.1420 (area of September 11 high). The nearest resistance is located in the field of a session high, and also area October 22-23 high on Chf1.1700, above is located the peak on October 21 2007 on Chf1.1780. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to Chf1.1880/Chf1,1900 (area of October 2007 high).

Resistance 3: $1.6350
Resistance 2: $1.6040
Resistance 1: $1.5920
Current price: $1.5395
Support 1: $1.5260
Support 2: $1.5150
Support 3: $1.4850
Comments: The pound has come nearer to area of 6 years low which at present act as the nearest support ($1,5260). Overcoming of the given mark will open road to $1,5150 (area of July 2002 low) and further to $1,4850 (area of October 2001 high). The nearest resistance - $1,5920 (61,8 % of Friday falling). Above there is a chance of return to $1,6040 (area of a Thursday's low) and further to $1,6350 (area of Thursday's high)

Resistance 3:$1.2740
Resistance 2: $1.2690
Resistance 1: $1.2500
Current price: $1.2432
Support 1: $1.2330
Support 2: $1.2200
Support 3: $1.2160
Comments: The pair has tested a level $1,2400. As the nearest support acts at present the area of a session low on / $1,2330. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to $1.2200. Below there is a probability of falling to $1,2160 (100 % of a projection of decrease $1.4862/1.3258). Intermediate resistance is the level $1,2500 (area of a Friday's low). Above is located the mark $1,2690 (area of a session high) which overcoming will open road to $1,2740 (area of October 22 and 23 low).

The yen climbed for a fifth day against the dollar as the risk of a global recession and an extended slump in the world's stock markets prompted investors to slash carry trades.
The currency rose against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, two favorite targets of such trades, in which investors borrow in nations with low interest rates and buy higher- yielding assets elsewhere. It stayed higher as the Group of Seven nations expressed concern about excessive yen movements and Japan Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said his country is ready to act.
Japan last sold its own currency in March 2004.
Futures traders increased their bets that the yen will gain against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
The dollar also fell against the yen as traders increased bets the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week before data that may show the world's largest economy shrank the most since 2001.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 100 percent chance the Fed will cut its 1.5 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point on Oct. 29. Futures showed no chance of lower rates a month ago.
U.S. gross domestic product contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the three months through September, according to the median ahead of Commerce Department data due Oct. 30.

EUR/USD having shown session high in the field of $1,2680, the pair has updated two years low having reached a mark $1,2330.
GBP/USD having opened in the field of $1,5730, the rate has tested area of Friday’s low on $1,5265.
USD/JPY having shown high on Y94,45, the pair has fallen in area Y92,00.

US data starts at 1400GMT, US new home sales are expected to slow modestly to a 450,000 annual rate in September after falling sharply in August. Tight credit conditions and financial market turmoil is keeping buyers away. The supply of new homes remains high relative to sales, keeping prices on a downward spiral.

Japan stocks plunged, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to the brink of 1982 levels, as Sony Corp. cut its forecast, Toyota Motor Corp.'s car sales fell for the first time in seven years, and the yen reached a 13-year high.
Sony, which gets three-quarters of its revenue outside of Japan, dived 14 percent to the lowest level since 1995, while Toyota, Japan's biggest carmaker, declined 6.4 percent. Canon Inc., the world's biggest digital-camera maker, and electronics companies Panasonic Corp. and Sharp Corp. plunged more than 12 percent as the surging yen cut the value of overseas sales.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 811.90, or 9.6 percent, to close at 7,649.08 in Tokyo, a level not seen since April 2003 and just 41 points from the lowest since 1982. The broader Topix index fell 65.59, or 7.5 percent, to 806.11. The Nikkei posted a 12 percent drop for this week, while the Topix lost 9.9 percent.
The Nikkei has lost half its value this year as the credit crisis led to a slowdown in the global economy. Chances the Bank of Japan will cut interest rates by year-end to avert a prolonged recession grew to 24 percent from 3 percent a month ago, based on JPMorgan Chase & Co. calculations of interest-rate swaps.
Sony, the world's second-biggest maker of consumer electronics, yesterday slashed its forecast for annual operating profit by 57 percent, citing the stronger yen and a worsening market for televisions and cameras. UBS AG yesterday cut 12-month price estimates on Canon and Ricoh Co. by almost half, noting the appreciating Japanese currency and weakening demand.
Sony dropped 14 percent to 1,972 yen, the lowest close since June 1995, while Panasonic sank 12 percent to 1,346 yen. Canon fell 13 percent, the most since October 1987, to 2,665 yen, and Ricoh, Japan's second-largest office-equipment maker, sank 14 percent to 876 yen. Sharp, the nation's largest maker of liquid- crystal display TVs, plunged 14 percent to 1,972, the lowest since April 1982.
Toyota said today global auto sales retreated 4.3 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, the first drop since 2001. The stock fell 6.4 percent to 3,200 yen. Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., 16 percent owned by Toyota and the maker of Subaru cars, lost 7.3 percent to 320 yen, the lowest since December 1997, despite saying yesterday it beat its first-half profit forecast. Mazda Motor Corp., Japan's fourth-largest automaker, slumped 9.1 percent to 200 yen.
Sony's revision and Toyota's sales slump point to an increasing chance other overseas-dependent companies will have to cut earnings forecasts as the dollar and global demand weaken.

U.K. stocks declined, led by financial and energy companies, as investors speculated the worsening economy at home and elsewhere will hurt earnings.
HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, declined the most since Sept. 11, 2001, after Morgan Stanley cut its share-price estimate for the company by 25 percent as the contagion from the global turmoil spread to Asia. Barclays Plc fell after it was lowered to ``neutral'' from ``buy'' at UBS AG, which said earnings and dividends at the U.K.'s second-biggest bank may be hurt as it raises capital.
The FTSE 100 Index lost 243.93, or 6 percent, to a five- year low of 3,843.9 at 10:13 a.m. in London, headed for a 5.4 percent decline this week.
HSBC slid 8.4 percent to 737.25. Morgan Stanley also lowered its earnings estimates for HSBC by 3 percent to $1.11 a share for this year and 10 percent to $1.05 for 2009.
Barclays fell 4.1 percent to 209.25.
Barclays is likely to cut its dividend next year as profit declines, Crutchley said, predicting a 2009 dividend of 12 pence and earnings of 24.36 pence a share, reduced from a previous estimate of 43.59 pence.
HBOS Plc, the U.K. bank that agreed to be bought by Lloyds TSB Group Plc, slid 9.3 percent to 66 pence. Aviva Plc, the U.K.'s biggest insurer, declined 8 percent to 253 pence.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, slid 1.7 percent to 809 pence. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's biggest oil company, decreased 5 percent to 1,473.
Copper for delivery in three months slumped for a fifth day, sliding 5.3 percent to $3,825 a metric ton in London. Nickel, lead, zinc and aluminum prices also fell.
German stocks plunged to the lowest in three years as investor concern deepened a global economic cooldown will weigh on corporate profits.
MAN AG, Europe's third-largest truckmaker, tumbled after Volvo AB cut its outlook and Scania AB reported profit figures that trailed analysts' estimates. Daimler AG fell to a 12-year low as several analysts reduced their share-price estimates for the world's largest truckmaker and Oddo & Cie cut its recommendation on the shares.
The DAX Index declined 224.03, or 5 percent, to 4,295.67, the lowest since May 2005. The DAX Index dropped 10 percent this week.
Volkswagen AG plunged 18.15 euros, or 7.9 percent, to 210.85, the lowest in more than five weeks.
Europe's largest carmaker said vehicle sales rose 3.9 percent in the first nine months because of growth in emerging economies and the introduction of new models. The company said it's sticking to a goal of selling more cars this year.
Daimler declined 1.41 euros, or 5.9 percent, to 22.41, the lowest since November 1998. Oddo lowered its recommendation on the luxury-car and truckmaker to ``reduce'' from ``add'' after Daimler yesterday scrapped its full-year profit forecast by 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) on plunging auto sales.

Stocks may have closed with substantial losses Friday, but the extent of the downturn was far better than many initially feared.

Index future

IFO Expectations (October) 81.4

Resistance 3: Y95.90
Resistance 2: Y95.30
Resistance 1: Y94.50
Current price: Y92.72
Support 1: Y91.90
Support 2: Y90.90
Support 3: Y88.00
Comments: The yen climbed for a fifth day against the dollar as the risk of a global recession and an extended slump in the world's stock markets prompted investors to slash carry trades. The nearest support is the area of a session low on Y91,90. Below possible falling to a Friday's low on Y90,90 and further to Y88,00 (area of August 1995 low). The nearest resistance is levels 50,0%FIBO of Friday's decrease on Y94,50 (and also area of a session high). Above is possible growth to Y95,30 (61,8 %) and further to Y95,90 (area of Thursday's low).

Resistance 3: Chf1.1880
Resistance 2: Chf1.1780
Resistance 1: Chf1.1700
Current price: Chf1.1674
Support 1: Chf1.1580
Support 2: Chf1.1480
Support 3: Chf1.1420
Comments: The dollar remains under pressure before an output of data under US GDP which will be published on Thursday. It is expected, that rates of growth of the largest economy of the world in the third quarter will be negative (-0,5 %) against growth on 2,8 % in the previous accounting period. As the nearest support acts the area of a sessionllow on Chf1,1580. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to a Friday's low on Chf1,1480 and further to area Chf 1.1420 (area of September 11 high). The nearest resistance is located in the field of a session high, and also area October 22-23 high on Chf1.1700, above is located the peak on October 21 2007 on Chf1.1780. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to Chf1.1880/Chf1,1900 (area of October 2007 high).

Resistance 3: $1.6350
Resistance 2: $1.6040
Resistance 1: $1.5920
Current price: $1.5510
Support 1: $1.5500
Support 2: $1.5260
Support 3: $1.5150
Comments: The pound is corrected after a Friday collapse which has been caused on speculation the Bank of England will lower interest rates to help avert a prolonged recession. UK gross domestic product contracted 0.3 percent in the three months through September.The nearest support is presented by area of a session low on $1,5500. Overcoming of the given level will open road to a Friday's low on $1,5260. Below are possible losses up to $1,5150 (area of Jul 2002 low). Resistance is presented FIBO falling of Friday $1,5920 (61,8 %). Above there is a chance of return to $1,6040 (area of a Thursday's low) and further to $1,6350 (area of a Thursday's high)

Resistance 3:$1.2810
Resistance 2: $1.2740
Resistance 1: $1.2690
Current price: $1.2507
Support 1: $1.2500
Support 2: $1.2460
Support 3: $1.2160
Comments: The pair is consolidated after Friday falling. The nearest support is the area of session and Friday low on $1,2495 / $ 1,2500. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to area of low of second half of 2006 $1.2480/60 which, in our opinion, is a ultimate goal of current movement. But doesn't exclude probability of falling to $1,2160 (100 % of a projection of decrease $1.4862/1.3258). Intermediate resistance is the level 38,2% FIBO Friday falling on $1,2690 (and also area of a session high). Above is located the mark of 50,0 % on $1,2740 (and also area of minima of Wednesday-Thursday) which overcoming will open road to $1,2810 (61,8 %).

High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.2973 1.2494 1.2583
USD/JPY 98.00 90.88 94.71
GBP/USD 1.6303 1.5264 1.5906
USD/CHF 1.1750 1.1481 1.1697

EUR/JPY 127.05 113.77 119.33
EUR/GBP 0.8193 0.7912 0.7915
GBP/JPY 159.67 139.05 150.59
GBP/CHF 1.8866 1.7593 1.8602

Change % Change Last
Nikkei -811.90 -9.6% 7,649.08
Topix -65.59 -7.5% 806.11
FTSE -204.47 -5.00% 3,883.36
DAX -224.03 -4.96% 4,295.67
CAC -117.08 -3.54% 3,193.79
Dow -312.30 -3.73% 8,378.95
NASDAQ -51.88 -3.23% 1,552.03
S&P -31.34 -3.45% 876.77
10yr Note +1.6300 +0.461% 3.697%
NYMEX Crude Oil -3.69 -5.75% 64.15
Gold +15.60 +2.14% 730.30

09:00 Е15 M3 (YoY) (September) 8.5% 8.8%
09:00 Germany IFO Expectations (October) 84.8 86.5
09:00 Germany IFO business climate index (October) 90.5 92.9
14:00 USA New home sales (September) 450К 460К
23:50 Japan Retail sales (September) Y/Y 0,7%