Jan trading at $49.71, down $4.39.

Strategists at Merrill Lynch note that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been on the decline for eight months within a 12-month period. "Only 4.1% of previous episodes posted greater monthly declines (number of months) within a 12-month period than the current episode," they say. Prior years that saw declines more than the current correction were 1907, 1910, 1917, 1920, 1930, 1948, 1966, 1974, 1978 and 2002. Looking at a 24-month window, up until October, the Dow posted declines in 10 out of 24 months. "In the past, approximately one-third of the correction episodes were longer than the current one," the strategists say.

The stock market has extended its recent downturn as losses mount.
Treasury Secretary Paulson stated in a speech that market stress is clearly continuing and that maintaining stability throughout the recovery process remains top priority. He noted that transparency of market risk must be a higher priority, as it relates to financial products. Reuters reported that Paulson also stated that further slowing in the economy threatens to prolong the correction in housing prices.
Separately, the Federal Open Market Committee will expand its December meeting to two days, according to Reuters. Markets are currently pricing in a 66% probability the fed funds rate will be lowered from 1.00% to 0.50%. There is currently a 34% probability the fed funds rate will be lowered to 0.25%.

Stocks continue to chop along, falling back into negative territory. With the future of stocks uncertain, gold is catching interest from safety seekers. Gold is currently up 1.8% to $749 per ounce. Gold actually traded near $1034 per ounce in mid-March, which was near the time Bear Stearns was sold to JPMorgan Chase (25.25, -3.22) in a Fed-brokered deal.

Energy (-2.%) and financials (-1.2%) are currently the two biggest losers. The two sectors combine for 26% of the S&P 500's total weighting.
Tech, which is the largest economic sector with more than a 15% weighting in the S&P 500, is up 2.1%. It continues to benefit from large-cap tech names, which have the Nasdaq 100 trading 1.4%.
Industrials are struggling to stay in the green (+0.1%), making up just 11% of the S&P 500. Earlier reports indicated General Electric (GE 14.33, -0.12) was in talks with several Asian sovereign wealth funds, but Dow Jones has reported the conglomerate is not seeking equity investments from sovereign wealth funds.

Also spikes higher with stocks, lifts to Y95.95 area from Y94.85 area as stocks rallied and as euro-yen spiked over Y120.00, that latter pair minting fresh highs for the day around Y120.50. Dollar easing back to Y95.75 area as offers around Y96.00 contain the initial rush, stops a risk atop Y96.20 though supply possible at the overnight high area of Y96.10 we imagine.

Stocks are on the upswing and making their way to the best levels of the session.
Auto makers have been struggling as the likelihood of a government-funded bailout remains uncertain. Both Ford Motor Company (F 1.50, +0.24) and General Motors (GM 3.19, +0.40) have spent nearly the entire session in the red, but recently made their way to positive ground.
The recent ascent follows comments from President of United Auto Workers (UAW), Ron Gettelfinger, stated that without immediate assistance there could be a collapse of one or more domestic auto companies by the end of this year. Also, Reuters has reported that senators Levin, Bond, Voinovich, and Stabenow have reached a bipartisan auto aid agreement, according to a Senate aide.

The yen rose to a three-week high against the dollar and advanced versus the euro as a surprise increase in U.S. initial jobless claims prompted bets investors will sell higher-yielding assets.

The S&P 500 broke below the 788.90 low from March 2003. The index, at 784.24 currently, saw a low of 776.97 before edging higher. Beyond that, strategists at RBC Capital Market say the bearish breakdown Wednesday in the S&P below the 2008 low at 818.91, seen Nov 13 "highlights the 2002 low at 768.58."

The Nasdaq is outperforming its counterparts. Leadership in the index is owed to large-cap names like Cisco (CSCO 15.36, +0.28) and Amazon.com (AMZN 38.97, +3.13).
The Nasdaq fell to a five-year low in the prior session. The drop pushed the Nasdaq's price-to-earnings ratio below 27, which is nearly half the average ratio it carried during the last five years.
Some contend that the low multiple accounts for dampened earnings expectations related to a weak economic and business environement. However, basing earnings expectations only on the near term would be a mistake, since it would fail to account for future earnings under more typical conditions.

European equity bourses are down between 4.1-4.5% Thursday, with financial and oil stocks leading decliners. CAC-40 is down 135pts (-4.38%), Xetra-DAX is down 170pts (-3.92%) and FTSE-100 is down 150pts (-3.71%).

Economist Ian Morris says "the only good news here is the plunge in prices received, down to -13.8. This is consitent with core PPI y/y at -0.5% a year from now, down from 4.4% in October."

The major indices have opened lower and are making a sharp move downward. All ten of the major indices are trading in the red.
A lack of leadership continues to plague stocks as the S&P 500 is now down 46% year-to-date. Some market technicians posit that the stock market may retest the October 2002 low of 768.63, which would mean a drop of roughly 2.5% from current levels. Whether stocks push through that low or find enough support to encourage a rebound will only be seen.

- Lower inflation expectations has given monetary policy room to maneuver
- Will probably have to normalize monpol faster later on
- Seeing strong reversal in many areas of risk perception.

EUR/USD $1.2550, $1.2700, $1.2250
USD/JPY Y95.00, Y94.60, Y94.20, Y94.00, Y96.40
USD/CHF Chf1.2000
EUR/CHF Chf1.5200

Stock futures continue to trail fair value, indicating a lower start to the session.

WTI Nymex crude oil trades at $50.50, -$3.12. Bears now eyeing $49.90 -- low 18 Jan 2007. The selling comes ahead of the Decemeber Nymex oil futures contract today.

The yen rose for a second day against the dollar as stocks tumbled on concern banks will record further writedowns as economies wilt, sapping appetite for higher-yielding assets funded by loans from Japan.
The yen extended gains versus Brazil's real and South Africa's rand after traders shunned so-called carry trades as banks extended their declines, oil slid toward $50 a barrel and U.S. Treasury two-year yields fell to a record. South Korea's won tumbled to the lowest in more than 10 years as investors steered clear of emerging-market assets.
``Equity markets are in deep trouble and that is strengthening the yen,'' said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second- biggest bank. ``The global economy looks to be heading for a major downswing, so we're seeing an increase in risk aversion.''
Stocks fell in Asia and Europe and U.S. index futures dropped after minutes released yesterday of the Federal Reserve's meeting last month showed policy makers predicted the U.S. economy will contract through mid-2009.
The British pound declined on speculation the Bank of England will cut rates in the face of a recession.
``Sterling is under pressure because of aggressive rate cuts,'' said Jeremy Stretch, senior strategist in London at Rabobank International, the third-largest Dutch banker. ``When you add a bust property market and heavily indebted consumers, international investors have decided it's not a place where they want to take positions.''
U.K. retail sales fell for a second month in October as rising unemployment and the financial crisis dissuaded shoppers from spending. Sales fell 0.1 percent on the month after dropping 0.5 percent in September, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. BOE policy makers are prepared to lower their benchmark rate from the current target of 3 percent, minutes of this month's BOE meeting showed yesterday.
``People are going to continue favouring the yen as a safe- haven trade,'' said Stuart Bennett, a senior strategist in London at Calyon. ``Economies are like cruise liners. They can't turn around very quickly. We still expect doom and gloom on the growth side and that environment is good for the yen.''

EUR/USD having shown low on $1,2465, the pair has become stronger in area $1,2540.
GBP/USD having established a session low in area $1,4820, the rate has receded in area $1,4900. Offers $1,4930.
USD/JPY having established session low in the field of Y94,95, the pair was corrected in area Y95,60.

US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly jobless claims, which are expected to fall 10,000 to 506,000 in the November 15 employment survey week after surging 32,000 in the previous week to a seven-year high. Claims were at 479,000 in the October 18 employment survey week.
Further US data at 1500GMT sees the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey for November and leading indicators for October. The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to improve to a still pessimistic reading of -35.0 in November after the October plunge. The leading indicators index is expected to fall 0.5% in October. Negative contributions are expected from falling stock prices and consumer confidence. These are expected to be offset by a sharp rise in the real money supply.
The weekly natural gas stocks data is due at 1535GMT. At 1900GMT, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is due to speak at the Reagan Presidential Library, in Simi Valley, California. Late data sees the 2130GMT release of the M2 money supply.

Resistance 3: Y99.45
Resistance 2: Y98.50
Resistance 1: Y97.00
Current price: Y95.35
Support 1: Y94.40
Support 2: Y93.60
Support 3: Y90.90
Comments:Tech on USD/JPY hasn't changed. The nearest support is located at level Y94,40 (Thursday's low). Below possible falling to level Y93,60 (76,4 % FIBO of growth Y90,90-Y100,55) and further to a level of 13 years low on Y90,90. Overcoming of level МА (200) for Н1 on Y97,00 will open road to level Y98,50 (38,2%FIBO falling Y110,65-Y90,90). Above is possible growth to Y99,45 (a high of November, 10).

Resistance 3: Chf1.2470
Resistance 2: Chf1.2215
Resistance 1: Chf1.2140
Current price: Chf1.2138
Support 1: Chf1.2000
Support 2: Chf1.1920
Support 3: Chf1.1850
Comments: The pair continues to test area of a session high on Chf1,2140 which is the nearest resistance (also the given level is area of high of September of the last year and low of June and February of the last year). Above is possible growth to Chf1,2215 (area of a maximum of August, 2008) and further to Chf1,2470 (area of a maximum of June, 2007). Overcoming at decrease in level Chf1,2000 (23,6 % FIBO of growth Chf1.1550-Chf1.2145) will open road to Chf1.1920 (38,2 %), further are possible decrease to Chf1.1850 (50,0 %).

Resistance 3: $1.5370
Resistance 2: $1.5220
Resistance 1: $1.5060
Current price: $1.4856
Support 1: $1.4655
Support 2: $1.4555
Support 3: $1.4280
Comments: The pound continues to sustain losses against dollar. . As the nearest support acts the area of Friday's and Monday's low on $1,4655. Below is located the level of last Thursday's low on $1,4555 (the level $1,4530 is area of low of June 2002). Further is possible decrease in area $1,4280 (low of Apri, 2002) . In case of growth by the nearest resistance there will be a level $1,5060 (38,2%FIBO from falling $1,5880-$ 1,4555). Above are located levels $1,5220 (50,0 %) and $1,5370 (61,8).

Resistance 3: $1.3050
Resistance 2: $1.2880
Resistance 1: $1.2670
Current price: $1.2535
Support 1: $1.2425
Support 2: $1.2385
Support 3: $1.2330
Comments: Tech on euro hasn't changed. As the nearest support acts the level $1,2425 (a line of support constructed on low of October, 28 and November, 13). Overcoming of the given level will open road to $1,2385 (area of last Friday's low). Below possible falling to two years low on $1,2330. The nearest resistance is the level $1,2670 (23,6% FIBO falling $1,3765-$ 1,2330). Further growth to $1,2880 (38,2 %) is possible. Above is located the level $1,3050 (50,0 %).

The following data were published:
07:00 Germany PPI (October) Y/Y 7,8%
07:00 Germany PPI (October) 0.0% The yen rose for a second day against the dollar and the euro on speculation a plunge in global stocks prompted investors to sell higher-yielding assets and pay back low-cost loans from Japan.
Federal Reserve policy makers predicted last month the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to cut interest rates further in response, according to a record of their Oct. 28-29 meeting. The Fed lowered its benchmark rate to 1 percent, matching a half-century low, to avert the worst recession since World War II.
The British pound declined on speculation the Bank of England will cut rates in the face of a recession.
U.K. retail sales fell 0.9 percent in October after a 0.4 percent decline in the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The Office for National Statistics will release the data at 9:30 a.m. in London. BOE policy makers are prepared to lower their benchmark rate from the current target of 3 percent, minutes of this month's BOE meeting showed yesterday.

EUR/USD having shown low on $1,2465, the pair has become stronger in area $1,2530.

EUR/USD $1.2550, $1.2700, $1.2250
USD/JPY Y95.00, Y94.60, Y94.20, Y94.00, Y96.40

The following data were published:
09:30 UK BoE meeting minutes (05-06.11)
13:30 USA Building permits (October), mln 0,708
13:30 USA Housing starts (October), mln 0,791
13:30 USA CPI excluding food and energy (October) Y/Y 2.2%
13:30 USA CPI excluding food and energy (October) -0.1%
13:30 USA CPI (October) Y/Y 3.7%
13:30 USA CPI (October) -1.0%
19:00 USA FOMC meeting minutes (28-29.10)
23:50 Japan Trade balance (October) unadjusted, trln -0.064

The yen advanced against the dollar and the euro as traders speculated a global drop in stocks will prompt investors to sell higher-yielding assets and pay back low-cost loans in Japan's currency. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 2.7 percent.
``Everything is correlated to equities,'' said Firas Askari, head currency trader at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``I don't believe risk appetite will recover any time soon, so the yen will still appreciate. The market seems fragile.''
The yen advanced 14 percent versus the dollar, 33 percent against the euro and 53 percent against the Australian dollar in the past three months as the global economy headed toward a recession.
Japan's currency reached a 13-year high of 90.93 per dollar last month, threatening exporters' earnings and reducing the value of Japan's U.S. government debt holdings.
``I would recommend a continuation pattern of buying the yen,'' said David Bloom, the London-based global head of currency strategy at HSBC Plc, Europe's biggest bank by market value. ``Don't throw your coin in the well and wait around listening for the bottom of the market. This financial crisis is not over.''

EUR/USD having begun session in the field of $1,2620, the rate has established high slightly above a mark $1,2800 then has sharply fallen in area $1,2485.

Retail sales (October) Y/Y 1,9%
Retail sales (October) -0,1%
PSNCR (October), bln -4,9
M4 lending (October) provisional, bln +52,8
M4 money supply (October) provisional Y/Y 15,1%
M4 money supply (October) provisional 2,3%

Japanese stock indices ended Thursday's session sharply lower, weighed by the stronger yen and overnight falls in the US. Weaker-than-expected Japanese trade data also weighed. The Nikkei was down 570.18 points, or 6.89%, at 7703.04 - a three-week closing low. Volume in the Nikkei constituent stocks totalled 1.354 bln, with 215 issues trading lower, 8 higher and 2 unchanged.

Japan stocks declined, led by financial companies, on concern the nation's drop into recession will lead to an increase in bad-loan costs.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. dropped more than 6 percent on reports they'll sell shares to replenish capital sapped by bad loans and share losses. Aiful Corp. led a slump by consumer lenders after Nikko Citigroup Ltd. said interest-refund claims are rising. Mitsubishi Corp. fell to a four-year low on speculation commodity demand in emerging markets will slow. Softbank Corp., a mobile carrier that's lost half its value this year, rose 5.6 percent.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 55.19, or 0.7 percent, to 8,273.22. The broader Topix index slipped 8.01, or 1 percent, to 827.43 in Tokyo, the lowest close since Oct. 28. The value of stocks traded in Tokyo retreated for a fourth day, sliding to the lowest level since Sept. 1.
The Topix has fallen 44 percent this year as the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market prompted banks to tighten lending, pushing corporate bankruptcies to a five-year high. About a quarter of shares on the gauge trade at less than half of their book value, according to Bloomberg data.
Mitsubishi UFJ yesterday posted a 61 percent drop in net income for the three months to Sept. 30, citing mounting losses on stockholdings and increased costs to get rid of bad loans. The bank said it will raise as much as 546 billion yen ($5.64 billion) through a share sale.

European stocks fell, pushing the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index to the lowest level since May 2003, as concern deepened the economic slowdown will cut profits for chemical companies, financial firms and commodity producers.
BASF SE, the world's largest chemical company, tumbled 14 percent after abandoning its profit target. UBS AG slumped 9 percent as Morgan Stanley slashed its estimate for the Swiss bank's earnings by 23 percent, citing the possibility of more writedowns. SSAB AB, Sweden's largest steelmaker, slid 16 percent after saying deliveries will drop in the fourth quarter.
The Stoxx 600 lost 4 percent to 193.77, extending this year's drop to 47 percent. More than $31 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities as financial-market turmoil pushes countries from Europe to the U.S. and Japan into recession.

U.S. stocks fell and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid below its lowest close since 2003 on growing concern over the fate of the nation's car industry and economic data signaling the recession is deepening.
General Motors Corp. tumbled 15 percent and Ford Motor Co. lost 25 percent as auto executives pleaded to Congress for federal aid. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Cisco Systems Inc. and General Electric Co. helped lead declines after government reports showed consumer prices decreased by the most on record and housing starts sank to an all-time low. Citigroup Inc. slid 9.6 percent on the fifth-biggest U.S. bank's plan to buy $17.4 billion of assets from structured investment vehicles it advises.
The S&P 500 slipped 2.9 percent to 833.98 at 12:45 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 163.76 points, or 1.9 percent, to 8,260.99. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 3.3 percent to 1,434.49. Almost 11 stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by market value, tumbled 7.9 percent to $29.60. Cisco, the biggest maker of networking equipment, retreated 5.1 percent to $15.62. GE, the largest maker of power-generation equipment, fell 95 cents, or 5.9 percent, to $15.11.
Citigroup, which was surpassed by US Bancorp today as the nation's fourth-largest bank by market value, retreated 81 cents to $7.55, its lowest price since September 1995, three years before Citicorp Inc.'s merger with Sanford ``Sandy'' Weill's Travelers Group Inc.

Resistance 3: Y99.45
Resistance 2: Y98.50
Resistance 1: Y97.00
Current price: Y95.30
Support 1: Y94.40
Support 2: Y93.60
Support 3: Y90.90
Comments:The yen rose for a second day against the dollar and the euro on speculation a plunge in global stocks prompted investors to sell higher-yielding assets and pay back low-cost loans from Japan. The nearest support is located at level Y94,40 (Thursday's low). Below possible falling to level Y93,60 (76,4 % FIBO of growth Y90,90-Y100,55) and further to a level of 13 years low on Y90,90. Overcoming of level МА (200) for Н1 on Y97,00 will open road to level Y98,50 (38,2%FIBO falling Y110,65-Y90,90). Above is possible growth to Y99,45 (a high of November, 10).

Resistance 3: Chf1.2470
Resistance 2: Chf1.2215
Resistance 1: Chf1.2140
Current price: Chf1.2141
Support 1: Chf1.2000
Support 2: Chf1.1920
Support 3: Chf1.1850
Comments: The dollar continues to become stronger against franc. The area of a session high on Chf1,2140 is the nearest resistance (also the given level is area of high of September of the last year and low of June and February of the last year). Above is possible growth to Chf1,2215 (area of a maximum of August, 2008) and further to Chf1,2470 (area of a maximum of June, 2007). Overcoming at decrease in level Chf1,2000 (23,6 % FIBO of growth Chf1.1550-Chf1.2145) will open road to Chf1.1920 (38,2 %), further are possible decrease to Chf1.1850 (50,0 %).

Resistance 3: $1.5370
Resistance 2: $1.5220
Resistance 1: $1.5060
Current price: $1.4890
Support 1: $1.4655
Support 2: $1.4555
Support 3: $1.4280
Comments: the basic levels support and resistance on thes currency pair have remained former. As the nearest support acts the area of Friday's and Monday's low on $1,4655. Below is located the level of last Thursday's low on $1,4555 (the level $1,4530 is area of low of June 2002). Further is possible decrease in area $1,4280 (low of Apri, 2002) . In case of growth by the nearest resistance there will be a level $1,5060 (38,2%FIBO from falling $1,5880-$ 1,4555). Above are located levels $1,5220 (50,0 %) and $1,5370 (61,8 %).

Resistance 3: $1.3050
Resistance 2: $1.2880
Resistance 1: $1.2670
Current price: $1.2530
Support 1: $1.2425
Support 2: $1.2385
Support 3: $1.2330
Comments: The pair continues to remain under pressure. As the nearest support acts the level $1,2425 (a line of support constructed on low of October, 28 and November, 13). Overcoming of the given level will open road to $1,2385 (area of last Friday's low). Below possible falling to two years low on $1,2330. The nearest resistance is the level $1,2670 (23,6% FIBO falling $1,3765-$ 1,2330). Further growth to $1,2880 (38,2 %) is possible. Above is located the level $1,3050 (50,0 %).

High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.2813 1.2482 1.2489
USD/JPY 97.16 95.65 95.72
GBP/USD 1.5248 1.4902 1.4950
USD/CHF 1.2147 1.1941 1.2139

EUR/JPY 124.27 119.16 119.54
EUR/GBP 0.8462 0.8337 0.8351
GBP/JPY 147.88 142.98 143.09
GBP/CHF 1.8281 1.7916 1.8146

Change % Change Last
Nikkei -55.19 -0.66% 8,273.22
Topix -8.01 -1.00% 827.43
FTSE -202.87 -4.82% 4,005.68
DAX -225.38 -4.92% 4,354.09
CAC -129.51 -4.03% 3,087.89
Dow -426.91 -5.07% 7,997.84
NASDAQ -96.85 -6.53% 1,386.42
S&P -52.45 -6.11% 806.67
10yr Note -1.4400 -0.407% 3.391%
NYMEX Crude Oil -0.77 -1.42% 53.62
Gold +3.30 +0.45% 736.00

07:00 Germany PPI (October) Y/Y 8,3%
07:00 Germany PPI (October) -0,6% 0,3%
09:30 UK Retail sales (October) Y/Y 1,8%
09:30 UK Retail sales (October) -0,4%
09:30 UK PSNCR (October), bln -2,3 12,6
09:30 UK M4 lending (October) provisional, bln +33,1
09:30 UK M4 money supply (October) provisional Y/Y 12,4%
09:30 UK M4 money supply (October) provisional 1,5%
13:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 15.11) 516К
14:00 USA Leading indicators (October) -0,6% -0,3%
14:00 USA Philadelphia Fed index (November) -31,0 -37,5
21:30 USA M2 money supply (10.11), bln 0,2