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|
| 06.11 20:00 |
Hot Stocks: Wal-Mart Stores, News Corp
Cisco Systems, Inc The tech bellwether froze hiring and slashed sales targets for the current quarter.
News Corp Rupert Murdoch's media company reported a 30% drop in quarterly net income, saying it was hit by a large write-down and a decline in ad sales at its TV stations.
Pfizer Inc The pharmaceutical is discontinuing development of a Phase III weight treatment drug. Pfizer said it believes the drug is safe and effective, but made the decision based on a changing regulatory environment on the class of drugs known as cannabinoid type 1 receptor antagonists.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc The world's largest retailer announced that same-store sales rose 2.4% in October, topping the its own expectations.
|
| 06.11 19:30 |
Dow -417.12 at 8722.15, Nasdaq -60.41 at 1621.23, S&P -43.96 at 908.81 |
| 06.11 18:47 |
USD/JPY:
Has slipped to Y97.65 area as this pair and euro-yen ease lower with
stocks. Dollar pair remains just above morning low at Y97.52 with bids
suspected ahead of Y97.50 stops.
|
| 06.11 18:28 |
Dow -336.35 at 8802.92, Nasdaq -57.05 at 1624.59, S&P -37.31 at 915.46 |
| 06.11 18:07 |
American focus: [M]
The euro fell against the dollar, the yen and the pound after European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the economy ``weakened significantly'' and the International Monetary Fund cut growth forecasts for the region. The European single currency slid the most this week versus the dollar as the ECB reduced its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.25 percent today, in line with a Bloomberg survey of economists, and Trichet said more cuts may follow. The Bank of England unexpectedly lowered its key rate by 150 basis points to 3 percent. Switzerland also cut borrowing costs. ``The market is disappointed with the ECB after the Bank of England's bigger-than-expected cut earlier today,'' said Daragh Maher, deputy head of global currency strategy in London at Calyon, the investment-banking arm of France's Credit Agricole SA. ``The ECB looks like it's behind the curve and the euro is being marked down on the back of that.'' ``The intensification and broadening of the financial turmoil is likely to dampen global and euro-area demand for a rather protracted period of time,'' Trichet said today at a press conference in Frankfurt after the ECB meeting. ``In such an environment, price, cost and wage pressures should also moderate.'' Trichet said the ECB's rate-setting Governing Council discussed a 75 basis-point reduction. Economists predict the ECB will continue to cut borrowing costs at the most aggressive pace in its 10-year history, taking its key rate to 2.5 percent by April as growth falters. All Group of Seven economies except Canada will contract next year, the IMF said today in an update to its World Economic Outlook report. China's economy will also shrink, the IMF said. The Bank of England, led by Governor Mervyn King, reduced its key rate by the most in 16 years as the seizure in credit markets left Britain on the edge of its first recession since 1991. Signs the economy is faltering prompted a 50 billion-pound ($80 billion) bank rescue package from the government. The nation's main rate hasn't been lower since 1955. Gains by the dollar may be limited before economic data tomorrow. U.S. payrolls fell by 200,000 last month and the unemployment rate rose to a five-year high of 6.3 percent, according to the median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3 percent in the third quarter, the biggest decline since 2001.
|
| 06.11 17:47 |
Dow -350.93 at 8788.34, Nasdaq -58.33 at 1623.31, S&P -38.96 at 913.81 |
| 06.11 17:29 |
CRUDE OIL: Holds at $60.75, down $4.56 on the day and close to session lows at $60.16 |
| 06.11 17:18 |
BMO: "Labor costs will decelerate sharply as unemployment rises, driving inflation lower in the year ahead." |
| 06.11 17:01 |
Stocks tumble on recession fears [M]
Stocks swooned Thursday, as weak reports on retail sales and jobless claims added to fears of a prolonged recession. The Dow is back below 9,000 on worries about the economy. With the exception of discount chain Wal-Mart most retailers saw October sales in line with the bruised economy. Thomson Reuters estimates the monthly sales could be the worst in 8 years. Gap reported a 16% drop in sales at stores open a year or more, a retail industry metric known as same-store sales. Macy's same-store sales fell 6.3% and the company warned November sales would weaken. AnnTaylor Stores said same-store sales fell 19% from a year ago. The women's clothing retailer also said it was expanding its restructuring program and warned that third-quarter results won't meet forecasts. Shares fell 24%. Signs of the recession were evident in economic reports released earlier this week. They included dour readings on manufacturing, factory orders and the services sector and the worst monthly auto sales in 25 years. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week topped forecasts. The weekly number followed a pair of monthly reports Wednesday that showed the labor market continued to get hammered in October. The reports were especially worrisome ahead of Friday's big government report. That report is expected to show that employers cut 200,000 jobs from their payrolls in October. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which is generated by a separate survey, is expected to rise to 6.3% from 6.1% the previous month. In global trade, Asian markets tumbled on recession fears. European markets were lower in afternoon trading, after European and British central banks announced interest rate cuts. The dollar gained against the euro and the yen. COMEX gold for December delivery rose $14.60 to $757 an ounce. U.S. light crude oil for December delivery fell $3.70 to $61.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The credit market continued to improve. The 3-month Libor fell to 2.39% from 2.51% Wednesday, a nearly four-year low. The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill, seen as the safest place to put money in the short term, fell to 0.36% from 0.39% Wednesday, with investors preferring to take a small return on their money than risk the stock market. Last month, the 3-month yield reached a 68-year low around 0% as investor panic peaked. Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.72% from 3.70% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
|
| 06.11 16:30 |
RDQ Economics says "jobless claims data continue to point to a rapidly contracting labor market" and est nonfarm payrolls fell by 250,000 in Oct. |
| 06.11 16:18 |
Dow -193.86 at 8945.41, Nasdaq -38.09 at 1643.55, S&P -22.81 at 929.88 |
| 06.11 16:01 |
Miller, Tabak about US data
Analyst Tony Crescenzi of Miller, Tabak says "The current level of claims is consistent with monthly job losses of much greater than the 84k average seen thus far this year. Job losses are now likely to run around 150k to 200k per month."
|
| 06.11 15:46 |
CRUDE OIL:
WTI Nymex crude oil briefly broke below $61.00 level - lowest since May 2007 -- shadowing weakness in stock markets. Prices have since bounced to $61.25, down $3.96 on session.
|
| 06.11 15:31 |
Goldman has deepened forecast of payrolls to -300,000 from -250,000
GS saw "a string of very weak data releases since we cut our forecast that point toward more severe job losses in October."
|
| 06.11 15:21 |
Dow -17.13 at 9122.14, Nasdaq -14.04 at 1667.60, S&P -4.11 at 948.66
The major indices opened lower, with broad-based weakness. Stocks
are improving their position quickly, though, as several economic
sectors make their way into the green.
|
| 06.11 14:59 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1500GMT cut
EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2875, $1.3000 (lge) USD/JPY Y96.00, Y97.55, Y98.10, Y99.45, Y100.00 (lge), Y100.30 EYR/GBP stg0.8050
|
| 06.11 14:43 |
BNY-Mellon: Friday's non-farm payrolls will be -223K
"Using the ADP premium of 66K averaged over the past five months,
October's ADP of -157K suggests that Friday's non-farm payrolls will be
-223K compared to consensus expectations of -200K."
|
| 06.11 14:30 |
Before the bell: Wall Street set to open lower
The major indices remain on track for a downward start to the session, according to stock futures (S&P futures -6.90, Nasdaq futures -19.00). Analysts at Morgan Stanley slashed their earnings estimate for Goldman Sachs. Persistent uncertainty in financial markets and a clouded economic outlook have resulted in lower earnings expectations for many firms, and has also led to mounting job cuts on Wall Street. Recent reports indicate Goldman Sachs has informed some 3,200 employees, or 10% of its workforce, they will lose their jobs. Meanwhile, Citigroup has begun notifying some of the 9,100 employees, or 2.6% of its workforce, whose jobs will be eliminated. The announcements coincide with continued government reports indicating a relatively weak labor market. Jobless claims for the week ending November 1 totaled 481,000, marking a 4,000 decrease from the prior week's upwardly revised claims number. The latest figures exceeded the 477,000 claims that were widely expected. Cisco and Spectra Energy posted better-than-expected earnings per share results for the latest quarter. Williams Companies missed the consensus EPS estimate. Media giant Newscorp also reported earnings per share results that were below expectations, but had its shares downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by analysts at JPMorgan. Wal-Mart continues to attract bargain hunters; the discount retail giant reported October same-store sales growth of 2.4%. It expects November same-store sales to grow between 1% and 3%.
|
| 06.11 14:04 |
ECB TRICHET: 50 bps cut today seems right and appropriate
- We depend on data and our own judgement based on facts - Don't exclude another rate cut
|
| 06.11 13:43 |
ECB TRICHET: Expect bank sector to help restore confidence
- Council will keep inflation expectations anchored - Will monitor very closely all levels - Face extraordinary high uncertainty - World economy feeling market turmoil's adverse impact - Latest data confirm econ momentum weakened significant - Tighter financial conditions, slower demand in EMU - Of utmost importance to keep discipline in economic policy - Of utmost importance to avoid 2nd-round effects - Crisis to dampen demand for protracted period ahead - Inflation to continue to decline ahead - To reach price stability during course of 2009 - Number of downside growth risks have materialised - 2nd-round effects still a risk to price stability - No signs of drying up of bank loans to households, corpotates - Fin turmoil likely to dampen EMU, global demand
|
| 06.11 13:32 |
US data
Unit labour cost (Q3) preliminary 3,6% Productivity (Q3) preliminary 1,1% Jobless claims (week to 01.11) 481К
|
| 06.11 13:22 |
HSBC ests -230k for Friday's nonfarm payrolls
"An even bigger drop is possible given this month's: 4pt fall in Jobs
Plentiful index, 5pt rise in Jobs Hard to Get index, 79% y/y rise in
this morning's Challenger Job Cuts, and 7pt drop in ISM mfg employment
to 35."
|
| 06.11 13:15 |
European session: [M]
The following data were published 00:01 UK NIESR GDP Estimate (Oct) -0,5% -0.2%
00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (Oct) 4,3% 4,3%
00:30 Australia Employment Change (Sep) 34.3K 2,2К
06:00 Japan Coincident indicators diffusion index (September) preliminary 100.8 100,6
06:00 Japan Leading indicators diffusion index (September) preliminary 89.2 89,0
09:00 UK Halifax house price index (October) -2.2% -1.3%
09:00 UK Halifax house price index (October) 3m Y/Y -13.7% -12.4%
11:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (September) unadjusted Y/Y -2,7% -7,6%
11:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (September) seasonally adjusted Y/Y -1,3%
11:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (September) adjusted 3,6%
12:00 UK BoE meeting announcement 3,00% 4,00% 4,50%
12:45 Е15 ECB meeting announcement 3,25% 3,25% 3,75%
The euro fell against the dollar and the yen as European Central Bank cut interest rates today half-percentage point cut to 3.25 percent. ``The
market is pretty certain we're going to get 50 basis points,'' said
Jeremy Stretch, senior strategist in London at Rabobank International,
the third-largest Dutch banker. ``I suspect the accompanying rhetoric
will be dovish and they'll continue to talk of downside risks to
growth.''
The ECB announced its decision at 12:45 GMT and the bank's president, Jean-Claude Trichet,
will hold a press conference 45 minutes later. The ECB lowered its
benchmark rate to 3.75 percent on Oct. 8, joining the Federal Reserve,
the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank in
coordinated reductions. Benchmark rates are 1 percent in the U.S. and
0.3 percent in Japan.
``The euro is likely to ease on the decision,'' analysts led by Ulrich
Leuchtmann, head of foreign-exchange research in Frankfurt at
Commerzbank AG, wrote in a client note. '
The pound declined for a second day against the dollar as
BoE MPC cut Bank rate by 150bps to 3.00%.
EUR/USD started the day at $1.2955 before posted session
low around $1.2823. The pare bounced back later and traded around
$1.2880. After ECB cut euro fell to $1.2760.
GBP/USD fall after BoЕ desicion but got support at $1.5720
before gained up to $1.6040. Now the rate stabelized in the middle of
the range.
USD/JPY from Y98.40, fell to the session low at Y97.55 before bounced back to session high, where met the new pressure.
US data for Thursday starts at 1330GMT with the weekly jobless claims
and the preliminary Q3 non-farm productivity and unit labor costs data.
Jobless claims are expected to fall 4,000 to 475,000 in the November 1
week after holding steady in the previous week. Meanwhile, Non-farm
productivity is expected to rise only 0.4% in the preliminary third
quarter estimate as output growth likely fell in the quarter, but hours
worked also declined. Unit labor costs are expected to accelerate to a
3.0% annual rate from the 0.5% drop in the second quarter.
|
| 06.11 12:45 |
ECB cut Refi rate 50bps to 3.25%. |
| 06.11 12:41 |
European equity bourses are paring losses, amid speculation that the ECB will follow the BoE and cut interest rates aggressively.
CAC-40 is now down 54pts (-1.48%), Xetra-DAX is down 116pts (-2.26%) and FTSE-100 is down 77pts (-1.7%).
|
| 06.11 12:14 |
BOE: Bank measures starting to ease situation
- Credit access likely to stay restricted for some time
- Money, credit conditions have tightened sharply
- Equity prices have fallen substantially
- Agents point to severe near-term contraction
- Consumer spending has faltered, bus. investment weaker
- Conditions worsening in key export markets
- Inflation should soon drop back sharply
- CPI will fall despite decline in sterling
- Pay growth remains subdued, infl expectations falling
- Inflation risks have shifted decisively to downside
- Sees substantial risk CPI to undershoot target
- Judged significant rate cut needed to hit CPI target
|
| 06.11 12:07 |
SNB cuts rates
-- 3-mth target range 1.5-2.5%
|
| 06.11 12:01 |
BoE MPC cuts Bank rate by 150bps to 3.00%. |
| 06.11 12:01 |
European focus:
The euro fell against the dollar and the
yen on growing speculation the European Central Bank will slash
interest rates today and signal more cuts are needed to stave off an
economic slump.
The 15-nation currency declined in five of the past six days. The ECB
may lower its main refinancing rate an unprecedented 1 percentage point
today, according to Citigroup Inc. Most economists surveyed by
Bloomberg see a half-percentage point cut to 3.25 percent.
``The market is pretty certain we're going to get 50 basis points,''
said Jeremy Stretch, senior strategist in London at Rabobank
International, the third-largest Dutch banker. ``I suspect the
accompanying rhetoric will be dovish and they'll continue to talk of
downside risks to growth.''
The euro-region economy contracted 0.3 percent in the three months
through September and may shrink by the same amount in the fourth
quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
A 100 basis-point reduction by the ECB would provide an opportunity to
buy the euro, according to Citigroup, the world's fourth-largest
currency trader.
Such a cut ``would be unprecedented from the ECB, which has never moved
more than 50 basis points in one step,'' analysts including New
York-based Tom Fitzpatrick wrote in a research note yesterday. ``An
aggressive rate cut is unlikely to mark a sustained decline in the euro
and, tactically, an intraday dip should represent an attractive buying
opportunity.''
The ECB will announce its decision at 12:45 GMT and the bank's
president, Jean-Claude Trichet, will hold a press conference 45 minutes
later. The ECB lowered its benchmark rate to 3.75 percent on Oct. 8,
joining the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada
and the Swiss National Bank in coordinated reductions. Benchmark rates
are 1 percent in the U.S. and 0.3 percent in Japan.
``The euro is likely to ease on the decision,'' analysts led by Ulrich
Leuchtmann, head of foreign-exchange research in Frankfurt at
Commerzbank AG, wrote in a client note. A cut of more than half a point
``would substantially reduce the yield spread to the dollar.''
The pound declined for a second day against the dollar as traders bet
that U.K. policy makers will lower their benchmark interest rate by
three-quarters of a percentage point to 3.75%. Fifteen of 60 economists
in a Bloomberg survey say the BOE will reduce rates by that amount or
more, with the rest predicting a half-point cut. The decision will be
announced at 1200GMT today in London.
Gains in the dollar may be limited before economic data tomorrow. U.S.
payrolls fell by 200,000 last month and the unemployment rate rose to a
five-year high of 6.3 percent, according to the median forecast of 75
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3
percent in the third quarter, the biggest decline since 2001.
|
| 06.11 11:25 |
JPY/USD techs:
Resistance 3: Y100.55
Resistance 2: Y98.75
Resistance 1: Y98.30
Current price: Y97.78
Support 1: Y96.10
Support 2: Y95.70 Support 3: Y94.60
Comments: The yen remains within the former range. Initial resistance is now former support
Y98.30 and the 5-day moving average and Kijun line at Y98.75.
The key support remains at Y96.10 (50% of the most resent rebound) and
the Tenkan line at Y95.70.
|
| 06.11 11:23 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1950
Resistance 2: Chf1.1885
Resistance 1: Chf1.1800
Current price: Chf1.1644
Support 1: Chf1.1575
Support 2: Chf1.1490 Support 3: Chf1.1430
Comments:
Tech on USD/CHF hasn't changed. The yesterday's high on Chf1,1800 is
the nearest resistance. Except for that mark Chf1,1800 also is area of
low of August 2007. Above Chf1,1800 growth likely to extend to the Chf1,1885 area (high
of October 2007) and further to Chf1,1950 (area of low of July 2007). As the nearest support acts the area of 31,8 %
FIBO of growth Chf1,1200-Chf1,1800 on
Chf1,1575. Sustained break of Chf1.1490 (50%) will open road down to
Chf1,1430 (61,8 %).
|
| 06.11 11:17 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.6230
Resistance 2: $1.6180
Resistance 1: $1.5980
Current price: $1.5922
Support 1: $1.5800
Support 2: $1.5610
Support 3: $1.5400
Comments: Interim support level is $1.5410/00. Above
yesterday high $1.6180 resistance comes at 14DMA, currently at $1.6230
and Monday's high $1.6400. 21DMA comes today at $1.6470. Closest support comes at $1.5800. A decisive break below $1.5610 (50%
retracement of rally from $1.5280) puts October 24, 27 low at
$1.5260/80 back in focus.
|
| 06.11 11:15 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.3300
Resistance 2: $1.3100
Resistance 1: $1.3050
Current price: $1.2877
Support 1: $1.2745
Support 2: $1.2660
Support 3: $1.2530
Comments: Failure to hold above $1.3000/50 Fibonacci level (61.8% of $1.3299 to
$1.2528) yesterday put the euro under the pressure. Today the euro may extend its losses against the dollar on speculation the
European Central Bank is in the midst of the most aggressive round of
interest-rate cuts in its 10-year history. Closest support
spotted near Wednesday low $1.2790 and the pare may find the base there
or at $1.2750 before one more test of resent highs. Sustained break
above 21DMA, which is today valued at
$1.3100 will lead to retest of October 30 peak $1.3300 (38.2% of the
$1.4860
decline).Minor support comes at $1.2660 and November 4 low at $1.2530.
The double-day low at $1.2330 area remains the key target.
|
| 06.11 11:01 |
German manufacturing orders in September -8.0%
The worst monthly performance since at least 1991
|
| 06.11 10:50 |
Asian session: [M]
The euro may extend its losses against the dollar
on speculation the European Central Bank is in the midst of the most
aggressive round of interest-rate cuts in its 10-year history.
ECB will lower its main refinancing rate by a
half-percentage point to 3.25 percent today, after a similar-sized
reduction less than a month ago, and signal further cuts. Britain's
pound also weakened on speculation the Bank of England will reduce
borrowing costs when it meets today.The ECB will announce its decision at 12:45GMT in Frankfurt and the bank's president, Jean-Claude Trichet, will hold a press conference 45 minutes later.
Gains in the dollar may be limited before economic
data tomorrow. U.S. payrolls fell by 200,000 last month and the
unemployment rate rose to a five-year high of 6.3 percent, according to
the median forecast of economists.
The pound declined for a second day against the dollar as traders bet
that U.K. policy makers will lower their benchmark interest rate by
three-quarters of a percentage point to 3.75%. Fifteen of 60 economists
in a Bloomberg survey say the BOE will reduce rates by that amount or
more, with the rest predicting a half-point cut. The decision will be
announced at 1200GMT today in London. EUR/USD started
the day at $1.2955 before posted session low around $1.2823. The pare
bounced back later and currently trades around $1.2880.
GBP/USD got support at $1.5800 before gained ud to $1.5990.
USD/JPY from Y98.40, fell to the session low at Y97.55.
US data for Thursday starts at 1330GMT with the weekly jobless claims
and the preliminary Q3 non-farm productivity and unit labor costs data.
Jobless claims are expected to fall 4,000 to 475,000 in the November 1
week after holding steady in the previous week. Meanwhile, Non-farm
productivity is expected to rise only 0.4% in the preliminary third
quarter estimate as output growth likely fell in the quarter, but hours
worked also declined. Unit labor costs are expected to accelerate to a
3.0% annual rate from the 0.5% drop in the second quarter.
|
| 06.11 10:46 |
European equity bourses are opening around 3% lower Thursday following sharp falls in Asian and US stock markets.
Concerns about a deeper economic slowdown are now outweighing the
"Barack Bounce". CAC-40 is down 118pts (-3.26%), Xetra-DAX is down
154pts (-3.00%) and FTSE-100 is down 136pts (-3.00%).
|
| 06.11 09:42 |
Stock market: Wednesday summary
Japan stocks extended a record rally from a 26-year low on
speculation U.S. president-elect Barack Obama will take additional
steps to spur economic growth and as a rise in commodities prices
sparked gains by resource companies. Honda Motor Co. climbed 13
percent on speculation U.S. lawmakers may push for more policies to
boost the economy. Inpex Holdings Inc. and Japan Petroleum Exploration
Co., the nation's biggest oil explorers, jumped more than 12 percent
after crude rose the most in six weeks. Mizuho Financial Group Inc.,
Japan's No. 2 listed bank, gained 16 percent as tumbling money market
rates indicated credit is easing. Sumitomo Heavy Industries Ltd. soared
the most in 22 years after profit exceeded its forecast. The Nikkei
225 Stock Average rose 406.64, or 4.5 percent, to close at 9,521.24 in
Tokyo. The gauge has rebounded 33 percent from a 26-year low on Oct.
27, its best six-day gain according to available data back to 1970. The
broader Topix index surged 56.21, or 6.2 percent, to 966.91, its
third-largest advance this year. European stocks
retreated for the first time in seven days after disappointing earnings
overshadowed speculation that Barack Obama will boost the U.S. economy
with a stimulus package. ArcelorMittal, the biggest steelmaker,
slumped 15 percent after saying it will double production cuts. BNP
Paribas SA dropped 1.5 percent as third-quarter profit at France's
largest bank missed analysts' estimates. Carlsberg A/S, the Nordic
region's biggest brewer, declined 5.3 percent after lowering its
full-year earnings and sales forecasts. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600
Index lost 2.3 percent to 228.13 in London. Companies from
ArcelorMittal and BNP Paribas to Nokia Oyj and BASF SE have reported
earnings that fell short of expectations as economic growth slows. Earnings
for the 924 companies in western Europe that reported results since
Oct. 7 declined 4.9 percent on average, trailing expectations by 3.6
percent.
|
| 06.11 09:40 |
FOREX. Wednesday summary
The dollar fell against the euro as a contraction in U.S. services
increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut the target
lending rate by a half- percentage point next month.
The greenback weakened as the Institute for Supply Management reported
that non-manufacturing industries shrank in October at the fastest pace
on record as a lack of credit and slowing sales caused companies to
retrench. The yen rose against the dollar as a drop in stocks
encouraged investors to sell higher-yielding assets and pay back
low-cost loans in Japan.
The ISM's non-manufacturing index, which covers almost 90 percent of
the U.S. economy, dropped last month to 44.4, the lowest level since
records began in 1997, the Tempe, Arizona- based group said today. A
reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.
Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 157,000 jobs in October, the
most in almost six years, a private report based on payroll data showed
today. The drop was larger than forecast and followed a revised 26,000
decrease in September that was bigger than previously estimated, ADP
Employer Services said.
Тotal U.S. payrolls fell by 200,000 last month, and the unemployment
rate rose to a five-year high of 6.3 percent, according to the median
forecast of economists. The Labor
Department's report is due Nov. 7.
Still we consider current dollar slide as temporary and expect appreciation of the greenback in the nearest future.
US data for Thursday starts at 1330GMT with the weekly jobless claims
and the preliminary Q3 non-farm productivity and unit labor costs data.
Jobless claims are expected to fall 4,000 to 475,000 in the November 1
week after holding steady in the previous week. Meanwhile, Non-farm
productivity is expected to rise only 0.4% in the preliminary third
quarter estimate as output growth likely fell in the quarter, but hours
worked also declined. Unit labor costs are expected to accelerate to a
3.0% annual rate from the 0.5% drop in the second quarter.
|
| 06.11 09:31 |
US index futures continue to trade lower, although off earlier lows.
The S&P Dec contract was last 7.6 points lower at 950.4, with the
Nasdaq Dec contract losing 24.5 points to stand at 1281.25. The Dow is
down 58 at 9117.
|
| 06.11 09:03 |
UK Halifax house price index -2.2% m/m, -13.7% y/y in October.
UK: Halifax says Q3 mortgage approvals -25% on Q2
|
| 06.11 08:30 |
JPY/USD techs:
Resistance 3: Y100.55 Resistance 2: Y98.75 Resistance 1: Y98.30 Current price: Y98.23 Support 1: Y96.10 Support 2: Y95.70 Support 3: Y94.60
Comments: The yen rose against the dollar as a drop in stocks
encouraged investors to sell higher-yielding assets and pay back
low-cost loans in Japan. The key support remains at Y96.10 (50% of the most resent rebound). and
the Tenkan line at Y95.70. Initial resistance is now former support
Y98.30 and the 5-day moving average and Kijun line at Y98.75.
|
| 06.11 08:03 |
The Hang Seng Index closed down 7.68% at 13700.72 points on Thursday. |
| 06.11 08:02 |
Shanghai Composite Index closes down 42.89 points, or 2.44%, at 1,717.72, after trading between 1,703.09 and 1,728.21 today. |
| 06.11 07:58 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1950 Resistance 2: Chf1.1885 Resistance 1: Chf1.1800 Current price: Chf1.1694 Support 1: Chf1.1675 Support 2: Chf1.1575 Support 3: Chf1.1430
Comments:
Tech on USD/CHF hasn't changed. The yesterday's high on Chf1,1800 is
the nearest resistance. Except for that mark Chf1,1800 also is area of
low of August 2007. Above Chf1,1800 growth to Chf1,1885 (area of high
of October 2007) and further to Chf1,1950 (area of low of July 2007) is
possible. As the nearest support acts area Chf1,1660 (a level of 23,6 %
FIBO of growth Chf1,1200-Chf1,1800). Below the level of 31,8 % on
Chf1,1575 is located. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to
Chf1,1430 (61,8 %).
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| 06.11 07:56 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.6230 Resistance 2: $1.6180 Resistance 1: $1.5980 Current price: $1.5862 Support 1: $1.5800 Support 2: $1.5610 Support 3: $1.5400
Comments: The pound declined for a second day against the dollar before expected
rate reduction by the Bank of England to 4.00% from 4.50%. Most economists looking for a 50 b.p rate cut today but some say 100 b.p is possible, and that should keep the pound
defensive.
The decision will be announced at 1200GMT today in London.
Closest support comes at $1.5800. A decisive break below $1.5610 (50%
retracement of rally from $1.5280) puts October 24, 27 low at
$1.5260/80 back in focus. Interim support level is $1.5410/00. Above
yesterday high $1.6180 resistance comes at 14DMA, currently at $1.6230
and Monday's high $1.6400. 21DMA comes today at $1.6470.
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| 06.11 07:24 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.3300 Resistance 2: $1.3100 Resistance 1: $1.3050 Current price: $1.2851 Support 1: $1.2745 Support 2: $1.2660 Support 3: $1.2530 Comments: The euro may extend its losses against the dollar on speculation the
European Central Bank is in the midst of the most aggressive round of
interest-rate cuts in its 10-year history.ECB will lower its main
refinancing rate by a half-percentage point to 3.25 percent today,
after a similar-sized reduction less than a month ago, and signal
further cuts. The ECB will announce its decision at 12:45 GMT and the
bank's president, Jean-Claude Trichet, will hold a press conference 45
minutes later.
Gains in the dollar may be limited by speculation the U.S. economy lost
jobs for the 10th consecutive month. Nonfarm payrolls probably fall by
200,000 in October, according to forecasts before the report on Nov. 7.
Failure to hold above $1.3000/50 Fibonacci level (61.8% of $1.3299 to
$1.2528) yesterday put the euro under the pressure. Closest support
spotted near Wednesday low $1.2790 and the pare may find the base there
or at $1.2750 before one more test of resent highs. Sustained break
above 21DMA, which is today valued at
$1.3100 will lead to retest of October 30 peak $1.3300 (38.2% of the
$1.4860
decline).Minor support comes at $1.2660 and November 4 low at $1.2530.
The double-day low at $1.2330 area remains the key target.
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| 06.11 06:59 |
Japanese stocks indices ended Thursday's session sharply lower.
Nikkei 225 was
down 622.1 points, or 6.53%, at 8899.14. The broader-based TOPIX was
lower by 63.67 points, or 6.5%, at 903.25
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| 06.11 06:35 |
Major European stock markets to open lower Thursday
FTSE down 113, the DAX down
161, the CAC down 103 and the STOXX 50 down 80.
|
| 06.11 06:26 |
Daily History November 05, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.3116 1.2792 1.2954
USD/JPY 99.93 97.85 97.92
GBP/USD 1.6196 1.5752 1.5896
USD/CHF 1.1747 1.1549 1.1577
EUR/JPY 130.17 126.03 126.86
EUR/GBP 0.8163 0.8043 0.8147
GBP/JPY 160.84 155.21 155.66
GBP/CHF 1.8796 1.8396 1.8401
Change % Change Last
Nikkei +406.64 +4.46% 9,521.24
Topix +56.21 +6.20% 966.91
FTSE -108.77 -2.34% 4,530.73
DAX -111.17 -2.11% 5,166.87
CAC -72.98 -1.98% 3,618.11
DOW -486.01 -5.05% 9,139.27
NASDAQ -98.48 -5.53% 1,681.64
S&P 500 -52.97 -5.27% 952.78
10yr Note -0.7100 -0.189% 3.694%
NYMEX Crude Oil -4.93 -6.99% 65.60
Gold -14.90 -1.97% 742.40
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| 06.11 06:25 |
Schedule for today, Thursday, November 06, 2008
05:00 Japan Leading indicators diffusion index (September) preliminary - 89.0 05:00 Japan Coincident indicators diffusion index (September) preliminary - 100.6 05:00 Japan Leading indicators composite index (September) preliminary - 18.2 05:00 Japan Coincident indicators composite index (September) preliminary - 10.0 09:00 UK Halifax house price index (October) - -1.3% 09:00 UK Halifax house price index (October) 3m Y/Y - -12.4% 10:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (September) adjusted - 3.6% 10:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (September) seasonally adjusted Y/Y - -1.3% 10:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (September) unadjusted Y/Y - -7.6% 12:00 UK BoE meeting announcement 4.50% 5.00% 12:45 EU(15) ECB meeting announcement 3.75% 4.25% 13:30 EU(15) ECB press conference 13:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 01.11) 475K 479K 13:30 USA Productivity (Q3) preliminary 1.0% 4.3% 13:30 USA Unit labour cost (Q3) preliminary - -0.5% 21:30 USA M2 money supply (27.10), bln - +54.3
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| 06.11 06:01 |
JAPAN: PRELIM SEP LEADING COMPOSITE INDEX 89.2
PRELIM SEP COINCIDENT COMPOSITE INDEX 100.8
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