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| 06.10 19:50 |
Hot Stocks: Bank Of America Corporation, Ebay Inc
Bank Of America Corporation
In a deal that could be worth more than $8.4B, the bank has agreed to
settle claims brought by state attorneys general regarding certain
risky loans originated by Countrywide Financial. The deal will cover
nearly 400,000 borrowers.
Ebay Inc
The Internet auctioneer plans to cut its global workforce by 10%,
affecting about 1,000 employees and several hundred temporary workers.
The reduction is expected to result in pretax restructuring charges of
approximately $70M to $80M.
General Electric Company
The share price of the industrial and commercial conglomerate, a
bellwether of the U.S. economy, hit its lowest point in more than 11
years as a sell-off pulled down broader markets.
Wachovia Corp
Wells Fargo appears to have the upper hand in the Wachovia acquisition.
The Wall Street Journal reported that a North Carolina court issued a
temporary restraining order preventing Citi from enforcing a claimed
exclusivity agreement.
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| 06.10 19:25 |
FED FUND FUTURES: Stripping out misses and the chances of an intermeeting cut, futures prices suggest a 100% chance of a 50bps ease by the Oct 28 FOMC and a 50/50 chance for either 75bps or 100bps worth of easing by January. |
| 06.10 19:06 |
Dow -542.00 at 9781.47, Nasdaq -130.32 at 1817.07, S&P -65.23 at 1034.00
The Dow and Nasdaq hit fresh session lows and are currently trading
near those levels. Consumer staples is the best performing sector with
a decline of 4.6%. Materials is the worst performing sector with a
decline of 7.1%.
Airline stocks are down 14% as economic concerns outweigh the benefits
of cheaper oil (-4.8% at $89.35). The Amex Airline Index is down 49%
this year.
|
| 06.10 18:47 |
FED FUND FUTURES:
Stripping out misses and the chances of
an intermeeting cut, futures prices suggest a 100% chance of a 50bps
ease by the Oct 28 FOMC and a 50/50 chance for either 75bps or 100bps
worth of easing by January.
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| 06.10 18:20 |
JPM
Via JPM's Mike Krauss - "On the heels of Global Equity market
collapses today, the S+P 500 Cash Index is accelerating below our last
major support confluence of 1100-1060. A few closes below 1060 or two
straight eekly closes below 1093 would suggest that the decline from
Oct 2007 is not just cyclical, but more secular in nature. On thing is
clear, the downside momentum in stocks is much stronger than we had
thought. Being October, Equity crashes have tended to bottom in the Oct
10 to Oct 25 time frame.... so its still a bit early in the month."
Next support is 1019/1015 with macro support at 954. After that it is
the bear market lows of 789 in March'03 and 769 from Oct 2002.
|
| 06.10 18:02 |
American focus: "don't stand in front of a running train."
The euro had its biggest one-day drop against the yen since its 1999
debut as the deepening credit crisis prompted European governments to
pledge bailouts for troubled banks while stopping short of coordinated
action.
The 15-nation currency fell below $1.35 for the first time since August
2007 after European authorities avoided announcing any plan comparable
to the $700 billion U.S. bailout. The yen rose the most against the
dollar in a decade as a plunge in global stocks encouraged investors to
sell higher-yielding assets and pay back low-cost loans in Japan.
``What's driving the market is concern the institutional framework in
Europe is not conducive for policy makers to get ahead of the crisis,''
said Todd Elmer, currency strategist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
in New York. ``The picture for Europe is pretty gloomy.''
The dollar rose against the euro today on a surge in demand for U.S.
currency funding as banks remained reluctant to lend to each other. The
greenback gained 5.8 percent last week in its biggest rally since the
euro's inception.
``Much of the euro-dollar move has been about the huge demand for
dollar liquidity,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency
strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in
Greenwich, Connecticut. ``I won't be standing in front of a running
train.''
`There's a capitulation of emerging-market currencies,'' said
Citigroup's Elmer. ``There were massive flows to emerging markets over
the past years. We're seeing a reversal of that, which is providing
support to the dollar. There's certainly further room to run.''
|
| 06.10 17:56 |
Brown Brothers Harriman: euro to test $1.3300
Matt Van Dyckhoff of Brown Brothers Harriman says there has not been
such a weekly decline in the euro, since the move higher in
dollar-Deutsch market in 1992 (DM fell). He looks for the pair to test
$1.3300 and sees scope for euro-yen to see "an extended move to sub
Y130." On the day, the euro fallen from a high of $1.3675 to a low of
$1.3471 - the pairs holds at $1.3525 currently.
|
| 06.10 17:19 |
Dow -423.85 at 9900.07, Nasdaq -105.15 at 1843.80, S&P -52.25 at 1047.68 |
| 06.10 17:03 |
Goldman Sachs: "Fed to cut interest rates to 1% or lower".
As well as a change in BoE rate view,
economists at Goldman Sachs have also alterered their Fed call. GS says
that "with the boost from fiscal stimulus gone and the impact of
tighter credit conditions working its way into the real economy, US
economic activity has decelerated sharply in recent weeks....The
recession that we have been forecasting now looks likely to be deeper
and longer, taking the unemployment rate to 8% by late 2009 and pushing
the Fed to cut interest rates to 1% or lower".
|
| 06.10 16:34 |
Dow -402.30 at 9918.78, Nasdaq -90.70 at 1856.48, S&P -47.65 at 1051.02
The major indices post steep declines, although they have recovered from session lows.
The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 3.9%, 4.7% and 4.3%,
respectively, after being down as much as 5.7%, 7.0% and 6.6%,
respectively.
The major European markets also recovered from session lows, although they are still down at least 6.0%.
|
| 06.10 16:10 |
Deutsche Bank calls for a 50 bps cut at the December meeting to 1.50%. says Fed's on hold until 4:2009 when we get another 50 bps to 1.00%. |
| 06.10 15:57 |
Dow -410.02 at 9920.77, Nasdaq -98.39 at 1847.10, S&P -53.28 at 1045.95
The Dow drops below 10,000 for the first time since 2005. The S&P 500 is down more than 4% and the Nasdaq is
down more than 5%. Treasuries, meanwhile, are rallying in a flight to
safety bid. On a related note, gold is up 4.8% to $868.80 per ounce.
Although financials (-5.2%) are under pressure, multi-line insurer Hartford Financial Services (HIG 31.19, +3.79) is up 13.8% on news that it is getting $2.5 billion in capital from German insurer giant Allianz.
Hartford, which has more than $300 billion in assets, said it will post
a loss in the third quarter and cut its quarterly dividend by 40%. HIG
tumbled 52% last week on concerns regarding its capital position.
World stock markets continue to tumble. The DJ World Average,
Excluding U.S., is down 7.1%. Emerging markets are taking a pounding,
with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) dropping 9.9%. Brazil's
Bovespa has fallen 11.2% and Russia's RTS is down 19.1%.
The dollar is rallying against European currencies, with the euro down
1.9% to $1.35 and the pound down 2.0% to $1.74. The yen, however, is
showing strength, with the dollar falling 5.4% against the Japanese
currency.
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| 06.10 15:42 |
UK DARLING: BOE will continue to make cash available to banks |
| 06.10 15:40 |
FTSE-100 hits fresh year lows below 4,670 -- now trading at lowest level since November 1, 2004. |
| 06.10 15:27 |
Dow -304.85 at 10011.73, Nasdaq -75.61 at 1870.78, S&P -38.72 at 1060.51 |
| 06.10 15:23 |
European equity bourses remain deeply in the red zone
Financials are leading the market lower, amid failure by finance
ministers to reach an agreement at the Paris Summit and confusion over
whether German government would guarantee all private German bank
accounts. In FTSE-100: Financials -6.17%, oil & gas -5.93%,
consumers -3.01%, telecommunications -1.9% , utilities -1.58% and
industrials -3.61%. In CAC-30: Financials -5.99%, oil & gas -4.6%,
consumers -3.96%, utilities -6.22%. In Xetra-DAX: Financials -7.65%,
consumers -2.39%, industrials -8.55% and technology -5.14%. FTSE-100 is down 254pts (-5.13%), CAC-30 is down 214pts (-5.86%) and Xetra-DAX is down 287pts (-5.37%).
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| 06.10 15:17 |
CANADA: Sep Ivey purchasing managers index 61.0 vs Aug 51.5 |
| 06.10 14:51 |
Dow -211.30 at 10118.14, Nasdaq -43.31 at 1904.08, S&P -24.64 at 1074.78
The major indices start the week sharply lower as overseas markets tumble on financial market and global slowdown concerns.
European markets are seeing notable weakness in banks on worries that
more bailouts of European financial institutions are needed. London's
FTSE is down 4.9%, Germany's DAX is down 5.1%, and France's CAC is down
5.5%. Brazil's Bovespa stock index was halted after tumbling 10.1%.
Asian markets also faced selling pressure -- Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell
5.0% and Japan's Nikkei fell 4.3%.
Overseas weakness is prompting some buying in the dollar, which is up 1.3% against leading world currencies.
Commodities fall 2.0%, with oil down 2.6% to $91.48 per barrel, on
global slowdown concerns. Gold, however, is managing to rally 3.8% to
$860.00 in a safe have bid.
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| 06.10 14:48 |
EU ALMUNIA: Need coordinated EU response to financial crisis
-- Need improved conditions EU inter-bank market.
|
| 06.10 14:29 |
Nomura looks for 50bp Fed rate cut at Oct 28 FOMC and says there're 80% odds of an intermeeting cut. FF to go to 1% by Jan. |
| 06.10 14:23 |
Before the bell: A sharply lower open is expected.
S&P futures vs fair value: -22.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -37.50.

The Fed continues to address liquidity issues, planning to eventually
bring the outstanding Term Auction Facilities (TAF) balances to $900
billion from $450 billion. The TAF aims to improve liquidity by
allowing depository institutions to borrow from the Fed using the same
collateral that is accepted at the discount window. The Fed will also
start paying interest on depositary institutions' required and excess
reserve balances. Dollar Libor -- the rate banks charge each other for
short-term loans -- remain at highly elevated states, but did decline
slightly for all terms except the overnight lending rate. Overnight
Libor climbed 37 basis points to 2.37%.
Companies: Drug company Eli Lilly said it would buy ImClone (IMCL),
the biotech that produces colon cancer treatment Erbitux, for $6
billion.
Online auctioneer eBay said it would cut one-tenth of its workforce, or 1,000 employees, to streamline its business.
|
| 06.10 13:59 |
JPM says global economy is in recession
"Global
GDP growth is expected to hover around zero over the three quarters
from 3Q08 to 1Q09, similar to the performance recorded in 2001." EM
mkts are sharply eroding, they say.
|
| 06.10 13:33 |
Canada: Building Permits -13.5% m/m In Aug |
| 06.10 13:29 |
European session: euro falls on fears of deepening credit crisis. [M]
The euro had its biggest one-day drop against the yen in seven years as
the deepening credit crisis prompted European governments to pledge
bailouts for troubled banks while stopping short of coordinated action.
The 15-nation currency declined to a 14-month low against the dollar
and the weakest in two years versus the yen after leaders meeting at
the weekend avoided announcing any plan that would mirror the U.S.'s
$700 billion bailout. Germany joined with banks and insurers to prevent
the collapse of property lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG and Belgium
announced a revised deal to salvage Fortis. The yen jumped 5 percent
versus the Australian dollar as investors cut holdings of higher-
yielding assets funded in Japan, known as carry trades.
``It appears that European governments are failing to grasp the real
problem and are taking reactive measures instead of dealing with the
underlying situation,'' said Ian Stannard, a London-based currency
strategist fro BNP Paribas SA. ``The market is disappointed with the
results out of weekend meetings and that's going to put the euro under
increasing pressure.
Technical analysis shows the euro may fall to $1.3380 this week, said
Kengo Suzuki, currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo.
The European currency is likely to extend last week's 5.8 percent loss
as its daily moving average convergence/divergence chart is showing a
sell signal, according to Suzuki. Support at $1.3380 is near the euro's
200-week moving average, he said. Support is a level where buy orders
may be clustered.
``There's really not much to suggest the euro can stage a meaningful
recovery right now,'' Suzuki said. ``It's been caught in a wave of
panic selling and the charts show it can go lower still.''
EUR/USD: after consolidation within $1.3600/50 posted session
low at $1.3540, before gained back to $1.3620. Offers remain at
$1.3620. more on approach to
$1.3670/80 (day high and 61.8% of $1.3540-$1.3907 move). Bids spotted
at $1.3535/30, stronger near $1.3500 option barrier.

GBP/USD: followed the euro-dollar. Having posted low at $1.7515
consolidated within $1.7550/00 range before rose back to $1.7620. Bids
$1.7510/00, $1.7485/80. Offers $1.7620, $1.7650.
USD/JPY: fell from Y105.15 to Y102.80. Rebound failed at Y103.60/70, and rate revisited session's low.
Offers Y103.75/80. Bids Y102.75/70. large stops lower.
Canada bulding permits are due at 12:30 GMT. PMI Ivey expected at 14:00
GMT.
|
| 06.10 13:12 |
EUR/USD is back above $1.3600
Now the rate seen challenging short term
tech resistance at $1.3605/10. Above here and rate can move back up to
retest earlier recovery highs at $1.3618/offers to $1.3620. A break and
clear above here to open technical potential toward the $1.3665/85 area.
|
| 06.10 12:51 |
Suncorp-Metway Ltd.: "dollar will weaken to $1.45 per euro over the next month"
``It's unwise to buy a currency which is both in recession and having a
banking crisis,'' said Peter Pontikis, a treasury strategist at
Suncorp-Metway Ltd. in Brisbane. The dollar will weaken to $1.45 per
euro over the next month, he said.
|
| 06.10 12:25 |
OPEC President Chakib Khelil expects oil prices to fall further next year
-- Will take "appropriate" steps to stabalize prices.
|
| 06.10 12:22 |
Goldman Sachs Group Inc: U.S. economy recession wil be ``significantly deeper''
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy will enter a recession
``significantly deeper'' than previously forecast, prompting the
Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least 1 percentage point.
Gross domestic product will decline in each of the next two quarters,
with unemployment reaching 8 percent by the end of 2009, Goldman said
in a research note.
|
| 06.10 12:00 |
European focus: [M]
The euro had its biggest one-day drop against the yen in seven years as
the deepening credit crisis prompted European governments to pledge
bailouts for troubled banks while stopping short of coordinated action.
The 15-nation currency declined to a 14-month low against the dollar
and the weakest in two years versus the yen after leaders meeting at
the weekend avoided announcing any plan that would mirror the U.S.'s
$700 billion bailout. Germany joined with banks and insurers to prevent
the collapse of property lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG and Belgium
announced a revised deal to salvage Fortis. The yen jumped 5 percent
versus the Australian dollar as investors cut holdings of higher-
yielding assets funded in Japan, known as carry trades.
``It appears that European governments are failing to grasp the real
problem and are taking reactive measures instead of dealing with the
underlying situation,'' said Ian Stannard, a London-based currency
strategist fro BNP Paribas SA. ``The market is disappointed with the
results out of weekend meetings and that's going to put the euro under
increasing pressure.
The German government and the country's banks and insurers agreed on a
50 billion-euro ($68 billion) rescue for Hypo Real Estate after an
earlier bailout faltered. BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, agreed
to take over Fortis's units in Belgium after a government rescue failed.
``It could be difficult for the European Union to take coordinated
relief actions,'' Toru Umemoto, chief currency analyst in Tokyo at
Barclays Capital, Britain's third-biggest lender, said in a Bloomberg
Television interview. ``This is a risk and the currency market is
focusing on this risk.''
HSBC Holdings Plc cut its forecast for European growth next year to 0.4
percent from a previous prediction of a 0.9 percent, economists led by
Janet Henry wrote in a note to clients dated Oct. 3. UBS AG cut its
outlook for expansion in Asia excluding Japan next year to 6.1 percent
from 6.9 percent.
``We are in a multi year trend reversal,'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, a
senior vice president at Putnam Investment LLC in Boston, who helps
manage $50 billion in currency assets. ``We are going to see a global
central bank easing cycle. The yen is the place to be in this
environment of economic slowdown and heightened volatility.''
Technical analysis shows the euro may fall to $1.3380 this week, said
Kengo Suzuki, currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo.
The European currency is likely to extend last week's 5.8 percent loss
as its daily moving average convergence/divergence chart is showing a
sell signal, according to Suzuki. Support at $1.3380 is near the euro's
200-week moving average, he said. Support is a level where buy orders
may be clustered.
``There's really not much to suggest the euro can stage a meaningful
recovery right now,'' Suzuki said. ``It's been caught in a wave of
panic selling and the charts show it can go lower still.''
|
| 06.10 11:39 |
ECB TUMPEL-GUGERELL: financial markets would return to normal only when confidence has been restored
While governments, supervisors,
central banks and commercial banks must work together to resolve the
ongoing financial market crisis, they should not resort to
"overhurried" measures, European Central Bank Executive Board member
Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell was quoted as saying over the weekend. In a
comment piece in Austria's Oberoestereiche Nachrichten, Tumpel-Gugerell
insisted that the financial markets would return to normal only when
confidence has been restored and that efforts were underway to do just
that.
|
| 06.10 11:12 |
Goldman Sachs: Bank of England to cut rates by 25bp at Thursday's MPC meeting.
Economists at Goldman Sachs now expect the Bank of England to cut rates
by 25bp at Thursday's MPC meeting. However, "we still think no move is
more likely than 50bps", adds GS. In addition, GS have also revised its
total rate cuts by the BoE to 150bps by the end of 2009 from 50bps
previously, "reflecting the deteriorating growth environment".
|
| 06.10 11:02 |
JAPAN STOCKS:
Japanese stocks ended sharply lower, although
off the session's worst levels. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was down
465.05 points, or 4.25%, at 10473.09. The broader-based TOPIX was down
48.92 points at 999.05.
|
| 06.10 10:49 |
USD/JPY techs:
Resistance 3: Y104.50 Resistance 2: Y104.10 Resistance 1: Y103.60 Current price: Y103.12 Support 1: Y102.60 Support 2: Y101.50 Support 3: Y100.00 Comments:
The dollar fell for a fourth day against the yen on speculation reports
will show a deepening slump in the U.S. economy. Pending home sales
fell 1.1 percent in August after a 3.2 percent decline in the previous
month, according to economist. The National Association of Realtors
will release the data on Oct. The nearest support is presented by area
of May's lows on Y102,60. Below there is a chance of falling to Y101,50
and further to Y100,00 (April 10 low). Resistance is presented by
levels FIBO from falling Y106,15-Y102,80: Y103,60 (23,6 %, and also
level Y103,40 is area of low Sep 30, 16 and July 16), Y104,10 (38,2 %),
Y104,50 (50,5 %, also area of Friday's low).
|
| 06.10 07:41 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1600
Resistance 2: Chf1.1500
Resistance 1: Chf1.1420
Current price: Chf1.1375
Support 1: Chf1.1275
Support 2: Chf1.1220
Support 3: Chf1.1140
Comments: The German government and the country's banks and insurers
agreed on a 50 billion euro ($68 billion) rescue for Hypo Real Estate
after an earlier bailout faltered. As the nearest support acts
Chf1,1275 (session low). Below loss of a rate can will increase up to
Chf1,1220 (Friday's low) and further to Chf1,1140 (Oct 1 low).
Resistance is Sep 11 and Oct 2 highs on Chf1,1420. Above is possible
growth to Chf1,1500 and further to Chf1,1600.
|
| 06.10 07:22 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.7980
Resistance 2: $1.7820
Resistance 1: $1.7700
Current price: $1.7588
Support 1: $1.7550
Support 2: $1.7440
Support 3: $1.7300
Comments: The U.S. Congress approved a financial-market bailout on Oct.
3, authorizing the government to spend as much as $700 billion buying
troubled assets from financial institutions reeling from record home
foreclosures. The dollar supported by the given fact has continued to
become stronger against pound. Support is located on area of Oct 2-3
low on $1,7550/60, stronger level is the area of Sep 11low on $1,7440.
Below possible falling to $1,7300. Resistance is noted on $1,7700
(session high), further is located stronger level $1,7820 (23.6 % Fibo
of falling $1,8670-$ 1,7550). Above the purpose of growth can become
$1,7980 (38,2 %).
|
| 06.10 07:01 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3:$1.4080
Resistance 2: $1.3900
Resistance 1: $1.3680
Current price: $1.3600
Support 1: $1.3550
Support 2: $1.3360
Support 3: $1.3260
Comments: The euro fell to a 13-month low against the dollar as the
deepening credit crisis prompted European governments to pledge
bailouts for troubled banks. As the nearest support acts the area of
Sep 2007 low on $1,3550, further is possible falling to $1,3360 (Aug
2007 low) and $1,3260 (June 2007 low). In case of restoration by the
nearest resistance there will be an area of session high/Friday's low
on $1,3680/00. Further follows Fibo on $1,3900 (23.6 % of decrease
$1,4870-$ 1,3600, and also area of Friday's high) and $1,4080 (38,2 %).
|
| 06.10 06:42 |
Daily History for Okt 03, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.3907 1.3699 1.3804
USD/JPY 106.15 104.48 105.12
GBP/USD 1.7840 1.7557 1.7746
USD/CHF 1.1402 1.1218 1.1271
EUR/JPY 146.82 143.98 145.09
EUR/GBP 0.7846 0.7749 0.7774
GBP/JPY 188.47 184.68 186.58
GBP/CHF 2.0175 1.9929 2.0002
Change % Change Last
Nikkei -216.62 -1.9% 10 938.14
Topix -29 -2.7% 1 047.97
FTSE +109.91 +2.26% 4,980.25
DAX +136.40 +2.41% 5,797.03
CAC +117.47 +2.96% 4,080.75
Dow -157.47 -1.50% 10,325.38
NASDAQ -29.33 -1.48% 1,947.39
S&P -15.05 -1.35% 1,099.23
10yr Note -0.0200 -0.005% 3.644%
NYMEX Crude Oil -0.09 -0.10% 93.88
Gold -11.10 -1.33% 833.20
|
| 06.10 06:21 |
Schedule for today, Monday, Okt 06, 2008
08:30 Е15 Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct) -20,2
12:30 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Sep) 51.5
12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Aug) 1.8%
23:01 UK NIESR GDP Estimate (Sep) -0.2%
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