|
|
| 03.11 19:45 |
BMO Capital Markets: what November will bring for US stocks.
Robert Kavcic of BMO Capital Markets says that in
the post-war period, the S&P 500 has posted monthly declines of 10%
or more on 8 different occasions. In the month that followed, the index
has rebounded 6 out of 8 times, with an average gain of 3.8%. "The
biggest rebound was 16.3% in 1974, while the worst performance was an
8.5% decline in 1987," Kavcic says. Looking at a 6-month time horizon,
the S&P 500 has advanced on 7 out of 8 occasions, "rising an
average 14.9% - the biggest gain was 38% in 1998, while the lone
decline was an ugly 27% in 1973," he says.
|
| 03.11 19:44 |
Citi ests Oct payrolls at -250k
"ISM employment dropped sharply
to 34.6 from 41.8 in September, consistent with a sharp decline in
manufacturing payrolls to be reported Friday."
|
| 03.11 19:37 |
Dow -36.29 at 9297.61, Nasdaq +2.20 at 1723.24, S&P -6.16 at 962.73
The stock market falls to session lows, with notable weakness in
consumer discretionary (-2.3%). Retailers are down 3.9%. Home Depot
(HD 22.29, -1.30) and Lowe's (LOW 20.71, -0.99) are the main laggards.
The Federal Reserve said banks continue to tightened standards on
loans, and there has been more tightening for commercial real estate
loans. The financial sector is down 0.7% this session.
|
| 03.11 19:12 |
General Motors reports 45% drop in October auto sales. |
| 03.11 18:51 |
Dow +5.73 at 9330.98, Nasdaq +9.89 at 1730.84, S&P -1.88 at 966.87 |
| 03.11 18:41 |
American focus: dollar gains despite ISM drop.[M]
Dollar gained agains the major rivals despite ISM Manufacturing Index
fall in October to lowest level since 1982, suggesting contraction in
U.S. manufacturing.
Earlier the yen fell against the euro on speculation a drop in
interbank borrowing costs will encourage investors to step up purchases
of higher-yielding assets financed by low-cost loans in Japan's
currency.
The dollar gained against the euro as evidence that Europe’s economic outlook is “precarious”.
Growth expected to grind to a halt next year and put government
finances under significant pressure, the European Commission warned on
Monday.
Growth in the European Union is expected to slow sharply from 1.4 per
cent this year to just 0.2 per cent in 2009, according to the Brussels
executive’s latest economic forecast. The eurozone – covering the 15
countries that share the euro – would slow from 1.2 per cent to just
0.1 per cent.
Eurozone inflation would average 2.2 per cent next year and 2.1 per
cent in 2010 – almost within the European Central Bank’s target of an
annual rate “below but close” to 2 per cent. Falling commodity prices,
the weaker growth outlook and the outlook for unemployment had reduced
the dangers of inflationary pressures becoming entrenched, it said.
The gloomy outlook prompted Joaquin Almunia, economic and monetary
affairs commission, to call for “co-ordinated action at the EU level to
support the economy” in the same way governments had acted to shore up
the banking system.
|
| 03.11 18:18 |
Dow +15.56 at 9340.62, Nasdaq +12.45 at 1733.40, S&P -0.88 at 967.87
Goldman Sachs (GS 89.31, -3.19) had its 2008 to 2010 earnings estimates
cut at Ladenburg Thalmann, saying the short-term outlook for the
company is poor, intermediate outlook is challenging, while the
long-term outlook is good. Ladenburg cut its price target on Goldman
to $80 from $140 and maintained its sell rating.
Toyota Motor (TM 76.56, +0.44) reported a 25.9% year-over-year decrease of October U.S. sales and a 37.6% drop in Lexus sales.
Separately, crude oil continues to tumble, falling to session lows with a loss of 5.4% at $64.17 per barrel.
|
| 03.11 17:56 |
GS on Fed policy
GS says they disagree with calls for a 0% funds rate "because we do not
believe that such a move would provide net stimulus to the economy. As
the funds rate approaches 0%, the expansionary impact of lower
borrowing costs is likely to be offset by growing systemic problems in
the money markets."
|
| 03.11 17:30 |
RBC and BAS on ISM
BAS says to expect "significant decline in the mfg sector for the rest
of the quarter and into the first part of 2009." Meanwhile, RBC says
ISM signals the outlook is bleak.
|
| 03.11 17:10 |
Dow +52.57 at 9377.90, Nasdaq +12.98 at 1733.93, S&P +2.64 at 971.69
Monday has been a low volume and relatively calm session on an
overall slow news day. At midday, the S&P 500 is posting a modest
gain. In corporate news, Boeing's (BA 51.85, -0.57) machinists union
voted in favor of a new contract as expected. Boeing was added to the
Conviction Sell list at Goldman Sachs. Wal-Mart (WMT 56.97, +1.16) was
upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.
Struggling retailer Circuit City (CC .36, +0.10) is closing 155
domestic stores, about 20% of its U.S. stores, due to its
"deteriorating" liquidity position and the weak macroeconomic
environment.
Eight of the ten sectors are posting a gain. Telecom (+5.0%) is
showing the most strength. The energy sector (-1.6%) is the main
laggard as crude prices fall 3.6% to $65.41 per barrel.
|
| 03.11 17:07 |
Ford reported Oct sales fell about 30%. |
| 03.11 16:50 |
SocGen on ISM
"The ISM is at levels consistent with a recession and maybe
deeper than expected with the index falling to 1982 levels. Very
short-term, the Inventory picture is a factor. We see inventories as
low, but businesses are making heavy inventory cuts nonetheless."
|
| 03.11 16:26 |
Dow +15.93 at 9340.62, Nasdaq +9.34 at 1730.32, S&P -0.54 at 968.21
The stocks market trades near the unchanged mark in relatively subdued action. In
earnings news, Goodyear Tire (GT 9.82, +0.90) is up 10.1% after
reporting a smaller-than-expected drop in third quarter profit. Sysco
(SYY 25.31, -0.90) is down 3.5% after its fiscal first quarter profit
failed to meet Wall Street's expectations.
|
| 03.11 16:17 |
BOE KING: Bank bailout will pay off in the end
-- Bank bailout needed to support economy
-- Was nesessary to take drastic action to aid banks.
|
| 03.11 16:14 |
GERMAN FINMIN: Facing "very serious, problematic year". |
| 03.11 16:11 |
UK DARLING: UK faces extraordinary circumstances. |
| 03.11 16:10 |
JPM: recession to be more protractive
"Developed economy downturn is projected to extend through 2Q09 is
expected to produce a 1.5% GDP decline-a contraction similar in
magnitude to 1974, the worst recession in the modern era."
|
| 03.11 15:45 |
Dow -23.82 at 9300.24, Nasdaq +6.24 at 1727.60, S&P -3.89 at 964.67
The Dow and S&P 500 trade near the unchanged mark, while the
Nasdaq posts a modest gain. Five of the ten sectors trade in positive
territory. Telecom (+3.4%) is posting the largest advance. The energy
sector (-2.7%) is the main laggard. Crude oil prices are down 3.5% to
$65.45 per barrel.
|
| 03.11 15:30 |
US: Oct mfg ISM index 38.9 vs 43.5.
Prices paid 37.0, new orders 32.2, employment 34.6, production 34.1.
|
| 03.11 14:54 |
ISM Index and Construction Spending reports will both be released at 15:00 GMT.
The ISM Index, a measure of nationwide manufacturing activity, is expected to
come in at 43, down from 43.5 in September. Anything below 50 signals a contraction in
manufacturing, while anything over 50 reflects growth.
A report on construction spending in September is also due at 1500 GMT.
Economists expect a decline of 0.8%. In August, construction
spending was flat.
|
| 03.11 14:44 |
Dow -9.40 at 9308.64, Nasdaq -1.51 at 1719.37, S&P -1.90 at 966.29
The stock market kicks off the week on a muted note on what has been a slow news morning.
In corporate news, Boeing's (BA 51.00, -1.42) machinists union voted in
favor of a new contract as expected. Boeing was added to the Conviction
Sell list at Goldman Sachs. Wal-Mart (WMT 56.53, +0.74) was upgraded to
Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan. On the economic front, the ISM Index and Construction Spending reports will both be released at 15:00 GMT.
|
| 03.11 14:40 |
Crude oil prices under pressure as markets react to headlines to investment banks downgrading year-end oil price targets.
SocGen expect
oil prices to averaage $55.00/barrel in December and Goldman Sachs now
see downside risks to the $70.00 year-end oil forecast given slowdown
in emerging markets.
WTI Nymex crude oil hit fresh session low at $65.25, down $2.56 as Dollar trade weighted index rises to 85.87.
|
| 03.11 14:26 |
GBP/USD under pressure
The unwind continues as cable slides takes out Friday's lows,
triggering stops through $1.6000 with relative ease and tumbling to
$1.5970 (50% retracement of
the move from $1.5280 to $1.6670), with the 61.8% at
$1.5810.
|
| 03.11 14:10 |
Before the bell:
U.S. stock futures were mixed Monday, as investors expressed caution on
the eve of Election Day. S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq
futures vs fair value: -3.80. Dow futures vs fair value: -16.00. A
slightly lower start is expected. Dollar Libor fell across most terms
and the TED Spread is down 24 basis points to 2.41%, indicating
improved credit market conditions.
Economy: A report on construction spending in September is due at 1500
GMT. Economists expect a decline of 0.8%, according to a consensus
of projections compiled by Briefing.com. In August, construction
spending was flat.
The ISM Index, a measure of nationwide manufacturing activity, is also
set to be released at 1500 GMT. The October reading is expected to
come in at 43, down from 43.5 in September, according to the
Briefing.com consensus. Anything below 50 signals a contraction in
manufacturing, while anything over 50 reflects growth.
Credit card colossus MasterCard (MA) is scheduled to report
third-quarter results after the close. The company is expected to
report a 25% gain in earnings to $2.25 per share, compared to the same
period last year, according to a consensus of analyst estimates from
Thomson Reuters.
Oil slipped 64 cents to $67.17 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
|
| 03.11 13:57 |
RDQ Economics: Fed to cut funds rate down to 0.5%.
"With the fourth quarter shaping up to be very weak in our judgment,
we expect that the Fed will cut the funds rate target in December and
again in early 2009, taking the target funds rate down to 0.5%. We
doubt, at these levels, that the target rate actually matters."
|
| 03.11 13:30 |
EU JUNCKER: Facing technical recession in euro area
- But EMU may not be in recession in strict sense
- Have not reached end of tunnel in financial crisis
- Must apply rules of EU stability pact.
|
| 03.11 13:01 |
European session: [M]
The yen fell against the dollar and the euro as a rally in Asian
and European stocks encouraged investors to step up purchases of
higher-yielding assets financed with the Japanese currency.
The yen also weakened versus Australia's dollar on expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates tomorrow to sustain economic growth.
Economists forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its
benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point to 5.5 percent
tomorrow, after policy makers in the U.S., Japan and China announced
reductions last week.
The Federal Reserve lowered its target rate to 1 percent last week,
matching a half-century low, after a government report showed the U.S.
economy contracted by the most since 2001 in the third quarter. Futures
on the Chicago Board of Trade indicate a 55 percent probability the Fed
will reduce the target rate to 0.5 percent at its Dec. 16 meeting. The
odds a week ago were zero.
Gains by the euro and pound may be muted on speculation the
European Central Bank and the Bank of England will reduce their key
interest rates by a half-percentage point to 3.25 percent and 4
percent, respectively, at policy meetings on Nov. 6, according to
surveys of economists. The euro-area economy probably entered a
recession in the third quarter and will grow 0.1 percent next year, the
worst performance since 1993, the European Commission said today.
The dollar fell for the first time in three days against the euro on speculation slowing growth in the world's largest economy will support the case for the Fed to cut interest rates.
The Institute for Supply Management's factory index, scheduled for
release at 10 a.m. in New York, declined to 41.5 in October from 43.5
the previous month. A Labor Department report on Nov. 7 will probably
show payrolls fell for a 10th straight month in October, a separate
survey showed.
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama holds a 54 percent to 43
percent lead among likely voters over Republican candidate John McCain
in the presidential campaign, according to a Washington Post-ABC News
tracking poll.
EUR/USD in current European session the rate was consolidated within the limits of $1,2780-$ 1,2890.

GBP/USD having shown high in the field of $1,6400, the rate has
decreased in area $1,6150. Offers are noted on $1.6400, $1.6450/60.
Bids are exposed on $1.6080/75.
USD/JPY the pair has continued to be consolidated within the
limits of the reached week’s high. Movements of a rate have been
limited by frameworks Y98,80-Y99,70.
At 1500GMT, US construction spending is expected to fall 0.7%, as
private residential construction is expected to return to its downward
trend. Housing starts plunged for the third straight month. Also at
1500GMT, the ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a reading
of 41.9 in October after plunging to 43.5 in September
|
| 03.11 12:41 |
ECB. Bini-Smaghi: an interest rate cut in November is possible. |
| 03.11 12:18 |
EU ALMUNIA: situation in markets remain precarious
- Says demand from emerging economies is diminishing - Inflationary pressures are easing - Economic growth should ease inflation pressures - Says the "bottom will be reached" in mid-2009 - Says fiscal position will deteriorate - Sees 7 member countries with deficits over 3.00%/2009. - No new EMU members likely until after Spring 2010 - Sees "gradual recovery" from the second half of 2009.
|
| 03.11 12:04 |
RBSGC says they would not be surprised to see the October ISM index fall to as low as 40.0. |
| 03.11 11:42 |
European focus:
The yen fell against the dollar and the euro as a rally in Asian and European stocks encouraged investors to step up purchases of higher-yielding assets financed with the Japanese currency. The yen also weakened versus Australia's dollar on expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates tomorrow to sustain economic growth. ``We're seeing a bit of risk appetite returning as things stabilize and I wouldn't be surprised to see the yen even lower,'' said Ian Stannard, a senior currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate forecaster in a 2007 Bloomberg survey. ``We should see lower-yielding currencies coming under some more pressure.'' Economists forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point to 5.5 percent tomorrow, after policy makers in the U.S., Japan and China announced reductions last week. The Federal Reserve lowered its target rate to 1 percent last week, matching a half-century low, after a government report showed the U.S. economy contracted by the most since 2001 in the third quarter. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade indicate a 55 percent probability the Fed will reduce the target rate to 0.5 percent at its Dec. 16 meeting. The odds a week ago were zero. Gains by the euro and pound may be muted on speculation the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will reduce their key interest rates by a half-percentage point to 3.25 percent and 4 percent, respectively, at policy meetings on Nov. 6, according to surveys of economists. The euro-area economy probably entered a recession in the third quarter and will grow 0.1 percent next year, the worst performance since 1993, the European Commission said today. The dollar fell for the first time in three days against the euro on speculation slowing growth in the world's largest economy will support the case for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index, scheduled for release at 10 a.m. in New York, declined to 41.5 in October from 43.5 the previous month. A Labor Department report on Nov. 7 will probably show payrolls fell for a 10th straight month in October, a separate survey showed. Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama holds a 54 percent to 43 percent lead among likely voters over Republican candidate John McCain in the presidential campaign, according to a Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. ``With the result largely priced in, we are not expecting a significant impact on the currency markets,'' Geoff Kendrick, a senior currency strategist in London at UBS, wrote in a research note today.
|
| 03.11 11:21 |
JPY/USD techs:
Resistance 3: Y102.35
Resistance 2: Y100.55
Resistance 1: Y99.70
Current price: Y99.15
Support 1: Y97.60
Support 2: Y96.30
Support 3: Y94.30
Comments: The pair is consolidated in the field of a week's high. The
nearest resistance is located in the field of a high of October 29 on
Y99,70. Overcoming of the given level will open road to Y100,55 (low of
October 17 and high of October 22) and further to Y102,35 (high of
October 20). The nearest support is presented by a level of 23,6 % FIBO
of growth Y90,90-Y99,70 on Y97,60. Below possible decrease to Y96,30
(38,2 %) and further to Y94,30 (61,8 %).
|
| 03.11 11:00 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1750
Resistance 2: Chf1.1660
Resistance 1: Chf1.1590
Current price: Chf1.1566
Support 1: Chf1.1340
Support 2: Chf1.1220
Support 3: Chf1.1120
Comments: The pair has updated a session high which at present acts as
the nearest resistance (Chf1,1590). Above is possible growth to
Chf1,1660 (high of October 28) and further to Chf1,1750 (high of
October 24. As the nearest support acts area Chf1,1340 (area of a
Friday's lowand also a level of 38,2 % FIBO of growth
Chf1,0685-Chf1,1750). Below the level of 50,0 % on Chf1,1220 is
located. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to Chf1,1100/20
(61,8 %, and also area of low of October 10).
|
| 03.11 10:52 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.6880
Resistance 2: $1.6500
Resistance 1: $1.6500
Current price: $1.6218
Support 1: $1.6145
Support 2: $1.5810
Support 3: $1.5265
Comments: Tech on GBP/USD hasn't changed. The nearest support - $1,6145
(38,2 % FIBO of growth $1,5265-$ 1,6675). Below possible falling to
$1,5810 (61,8 %) and further to $1,5265 (low of October 24 and 27). The
nearest resistance is presented by a level $1,6500. Above is possible
growth in area $1,6650 which is a level 61,8%FIBO falling $1,7520-$
1,5265. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to $1,6880 (76,4 %).
|
| 03.11 10:21 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.3290
Resistance 2: $1.3070
Resistance 1: $1.2950
Current price: $1.2837
Support 1: $1.2810
Support 2: $1.2700
Support 3: $1.2590
Comments: The rate has tested support in the field of 50,0 % FIBO of
growth $1,2330-$ 1,3290 on $1,2810. Overcoming of the given mark will
open road to a level of 61,8 % on $1,2700. Below possible falling to
$1,2590 (76,4 %). Intermediate resistance is presented by a level
38,2%FIBO of falling $1,3290-$ 1,2740 on $1,2590. Overcoming of the
given mark will open road to $1,3070 (61,8 %). Above is located the
high of Thursday on $1,3290.
|
| 03.11 10:00 |
OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1500GMT cut
EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2750, $1.2850, $1.3000, $1.3050 USD/JPY Y93.00, Y98.45, Y99.65, Y100.40, Y102.85
|
| 03.11 09:55 |
EU COMMISSION: New fcasts show negative 3Q EMU GDP, implying recession
-Risks to GDP forecast significantly on downside -Risks to inflation outlook more balanced as oil price drops -Eurozone 2009 GDP forecast +0.1% (vs. 1.5%); 09 HICP 2.2% (unchanged) -Germany 2009 GDP forecast flat (vs. +1.5); 09 HICP 2.1% (1.8%) -UK 2009 GDP -1.0% (+1.6% previous fcast); 09 HICP 1.9% (2.2%)
EU Almunia: "economic climate has significantly darkened" -Labor market conditions to deteriorate markedly in 2009
-EU forecasts assume oil at $104/barrel in 2008; $85.7 in 2009 -EU forecasts assume euro-dollar at $1.48 in 2008; $1.36 in 2009
|
| 03.11 09:32 |
UK CIPS manufacturing index (October) 41.5 |
| 03.11 09:21 |
RBSGC on US data
Dustin Reid, FX Strategist at RBSGC says "Chicago PMI hints at deeper than normal recession" as "the details are about as bad as one could script with employment, new orders and order backlogs all plunging." Reid says this sets up for a very ugly ISM print, ests "the whisper number at a 30-handle."
|
| 03.11 08:58 |
Asian session: [M]
The yen fell against the dollar and the euro as a rally in Asian
stocks encouraged investors to step up purchases of higher-yielding
assets financed with the Japanese currency.
The yen also weakened versus the Australian dollar, which last month
slumped to a record low as frozen credit markets damped demand for
so-called carry trades. Regional shares climbed for a fifth day after
South Korea pledged extra spending to help avert a recession and India
lowered interest rates for the second time in two weeks. The prospect
of rate cuts in Australia and Europe this week also helped drive
equities higher.
Economists forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its
benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point to 5.5 percent
tomorrow, after policy makers in the U.S., Japan and China announced
reductions last week.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will reduce their
benchmarks by a half-percentage point to 3.25 percent and 4 percent,
respectively, at policy meetings on Nov. 6, according to separate of
economists.
The dollar fell for the first time in three days against the euro
on speculation that growth in the world's largest economy will slow
further, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest
rates. A report today is forecast to show U.S. manufacturing last month
dropped to the lowest level since October 2001.
The Institute for Supply Management's factory index, scheduled for
release at 10 a.m. in New York, declined to 41.5 in October from 43.5
the previous month, according to economists surveyed. A reading of less
than 50 signals contraction. A Labor Department report on Nov. 7 will
probably show payrolls fell for a 10th straight month in October, a
separate survey showed.
EUR/USD having shown high in the field of $1,2890, the pair has decreased below a mark $1,2800.

GBP/USD having established a session high on $1,6398, the pair has receded in area $1,6270.
USD/JPY the pair has tested a high of October 29 on Y99,70 then has decreased in area Y99,00.
UK - It's manufacturing PMI/ISM day Monday with the core-European
releases working up to the Eurozone release at 0900GMT. UK
manufacturing PMI is also due, at 0930GMT.
At 1500GMT, US construction spending is expected to fall 0.7%, as
private residential construction is expected to return to its downward
trend. Housing starts plunged for the third straight month. Also at
1500GMT, the ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a reading
of 41.9 in October after plunging to 43.5 in September.
|
| 03.11 08:29 |
STOCKS: weekly review
This month has been one of the worst-ever for stocks. Dow on a wild ride. S&P down 204 points - most ever. As of Thursday's market close, the S&P 500 had plunged 18.2%, or 204.8 points, for the month. That's the worst-ever monthly point decline for the S&P, and it's the eighth-worst percentage decline. As
of Monday, the S&P 500 had dropped 285 points for the month. At the
time, the index was down 27.2%, which would have been the biggest
monthly percentage decline in 57 years and its second-worst performance
ever. Stocks on Friday bounced up and down in the first hour of
trading. If they continue to fall, then the month's declines could
easily rival the 21.76 % plunge in October 1987, which includes the
infamous Black Monday crash of Oct. 19. Trading has been extremely volatile, and recessionary fears have spread like a virus, roiling markets around the world. "The
real problem is a total lock-up of the credit markets," said Wyss.
"I've never seen that before, just the inability for firms to borrow
money." The Dow Jones industrial average is winding up one of its
most volatile months ever. The Dow plunged 15%, or 1,669 points,
through Oct. 30. The Dow has enjoyed only six positive days so far,
and none of them were consecutive. The Dow plunged 2,400 points, or
22%, in the week ended Oct. 10. But the Dow also experienced its two
best sessions ever: a rise of 936 points, or 11.1%, on Oct. 13, and a
jump of 889 points, or 10.9%, on Oct. 28. The Nasdaq, which consists primarily of tech stocks, plummeted 384 points, or 18.4%, through Oct. 30. The
market malaise is in spite of the U.S. government's sweeping actions to
kick-start the economy, including Congressional approval of a $700
billion bailout for Wall Street firms, including buying stakes in
ailing banks, and the Federal Reserve agreeing to buy businesses'
commercial paper and cutting the federal funds rate by half a point, to
1%. Many economists believe the economy is in a recession, while
noting that the current problems pale compared to the Great Depression,
which began in October 1929. But as some economists are quick to point out, the current downturn isn't over yet, and no one knows how bad it will be.
|
| 03.11 08:09 |
FOREX: weekly review
The yen and the dollar rose against the euro and headed for
record monthly gains as signs of a global recession led investors to
seek safety. Japan's currency also advanced after the Bank of Japan
lowered the target lending rate by 0.2 percentage point to 0.3 percent.
The euro fell as inflation in the 15 nations that share the currency
slowed to the lowest since January, making it easier for the European
Central Bank to lower borrowing costs. ``There's decent dollar
repatriation, and you cannot fight the flows,'' said Steven Butler,
director of foreign-exchange trading in Toronto at Scotia Capital Inc.,
a unit of Canada's third-biggest bank. ``I cannot remember any time
that we had so much volatility and illiquidity.'' U.S. investors
have cut their holding of foreign assets to 23.5 percent of their
portfolios by September from almost 26 percent earlier this year,
according to UBS. As global growth will be very weak next year, we
expect U.S. repatriation by risk-averse investors will continue to
benefit the dollar. Japan's currency has risen 17 percent against
the euro in October, the biggest monthly gain since the European
currency's introduction in 1999. The dollar has increased a record 10.6
percent versus the euro. The greenback is down 7.8 percent against the
yen, the biggest decline since 1998, when hedge fund Long-Term Capital
Management LP collapsed. The yen increased 4.8 percent to 64.24
against the Australian dollar and 3.1 percent to 56.63 versus the New
Zealand dollar today on speculation the global economic slump will
encourage investors to unwind carry trades, in which they get funds
from a country with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns
are higher. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told a press briefing
that the Japanese economy had clearly worsened this month and that
three dissenters had wanted a quarter-point cut. One favored no
reduction and four voted for the move. ``The reluctance of the BoJ
to join the more aggressive moves of the Fed has hit risk appetite,''
analysts led by Hans- Guenter Redeker, London-based global head of
currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, wrote in a client note. The move
suggests the Japanese central bank ``is nowhere near ready to introduce
quantitative easing steps.'' The euro weakened as the European Union
statistics office reported that inflation in the countries sharing the
currency eased to 3.2 percent in October from 3.6 percent the prior
month. The ECB participated in a coordinated interest-rate reduction
by global central banks on Oct. 8 to prevent the international
financial system from collapsing, reducing its benchmark rate by a
half-percentage point to 3.75 percent. Policy makers next meet Nov.
6, when they will probably cut the region's main refinancing rate to
3.25 percent, according to the median forecast of 26 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News. The pound weakened 1.7 percent to
$1.6165 after London- based market researcher GfK NOP said U.K.
consumer confidence in October fell to the lowest since at least 1974.
Sterling has dropped 9.2 percent this month, the biggest decline since
investor George Soros drove the currency out of Europe's system of
linked exchange rates in 1992. The Bank of England will lower its
main rate by a half- point to 4 percent when it announces its next
decision on Nov. 6, according to the median forecast of 30 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News.
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| 03.11 07:50 |
JPY/USD techs:
Resistance 3: Y102.35
Resistance 2: Y100.55
Resistance 1: Y99.70
Current price: Y99.45
Support 1: Y97.60
Support 2: Y96.30
Support 3: Y94.30
Comments: Growth of the Asian indexes became the reason of falling of
yen against dollar. The nearest resistance is located in the field of a
high of October 29 on Y99,70. Overcoming of the given level will open
road to Y100,55 (low of October 17 and high of October 22) and further
to Y102,35 (high of October 20). The nearest support is presented by a
level of 23,6 % FIBO of growth Y90,90-Y99,70 on Y97,60. Below possible
decrease to Y96,30 (38,2 %) and further to Y94,30 (61,8 %).
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| 03.11 07:31 |
USD/CHF techs:
Resistance 3: Chf1.1750
Resistance 2: Chf1.1660
Resistance 1: Chf1.1540
Current price: Chf1.1531
Support 1: Chf1.1340
Support 2: Chf1.1220
Support 3: Chf1.1120
Comments: The pair is corrected after growth in the end of the last
week. As the nearest support acts area Chf1,1340 (area of a Friday's
lowand also a level of 38,2 % FIBO of growth Chf1,0685-Chf1,1750).
Below the level of 50,0 % on Chf1,1220 is located. Overcoming of the
given mark will open road to Chf1,1100/20 (61,8 %, and also area of low
of October 10). Intermediate resistance is located in the field of
Chf1,1540 (area 200 МА for Н1). Above Chf1,1540 is possible growth to
Chf1,1660 (high of October 28) and further to Chf1,1750 (high of
October 24.
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| 03.11 07:21 |
GBP/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.6880
Resistance 2: $1.6500
Resistance 1: $1.6500
Current price: $1.6363
Support 1: $1.6145
Support 2: $1.5810
Support 3: $1.5265
Comments: The pair has receded from Friday's low. The nearest support -
$1,6145 (38,2 % FIBO of growth $1,5265-$ 1,6675). Below possible
falling to $1,5810 (61,8 %) and further to $1,5265 (low of October 24
and 27). The nearest resistance is presented by a level $1,6500. Above
is possible growth in area $1,6650 which is a level 61,8%FIBO falling
$1,7520-$ 1,5265. Overcoming of the given mark will open road to
$1,6880 (76,4 %).
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| 03.11 07:04 |
EUR/USD techs:
Resistance 3: $1.3290
Resistance 2: $1.3070
Resistance 1: $1.2950
Current price: $1.2874
Support 1: $1.2810
Support 2: $1.2700
Support 3: $1.2590
Comments: The dollar fell for the first time in three days against the
euro on speculation that growth in the world's largest economy will
slow further, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to cut
interest rates. The nearest support is located in the field of 50,0 %
FIBO of growth $1,2330-$ 1,3290 on $1,2810. Overcoming of the given
mark will open road to a level of 61,8 % on $1,2700. Below possible
falling to $1,2590 (76,4 %). Intermediate resistance is presented by a
level 38,2%FIBO of falling $1,3290-$ 1,2740 on $1,2590. Overcoming of
the given mark will open road to $1,3070 (61,8 %). Above is located the
high of Thursday on $1,3290.
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| 03.11 06:41 |
Daily History for Nov 03, 2008
High Low Close
EUR/USD 1.2894 1.2665 1.2739
USD/JPY 99.12 96.33 98.48
GBP/USD 1.6418 1.6003 1.6092
USD/CHF 1.1687 1.1351 1.1599
EUR/JPY 127.50 122.18 125.49
EUR/GBP 0.7927 0.7793 0.7914
GBP/JPY 162.29 155.48 158.45
GBP/CHF 1.8881 1.8531 1.8664
Change % Change Last
Nikkei -452,78 -5,01% 8 576,98
Topix -32,25 -3.58% 867,12
FTSE +85.69 +2.00% 4,377.34
DAX +118.67 +2.44% 4,987.97
CAC +79.25 +2.33% 3,487.07
DOW +189.89 +2.11% 9,180.85
NASDAQ +41.31 +2.49% 1,698.52
S&P 500 +23.94 +2.57% 954.03
Dow +144.32 +1.55% 9,325.01
NASDAQ +22.43 +1.32% 1,720.95
S&P +14.66 +1.54% 968.75
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| 03.11 06:21 |
Schedule for today, Monday, Nov 03, 2008
Japan National Culture Day
00:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0,6%
08:55 Germany PMI (October) seasonally adjusted 47.4
09:00 Е15 PMI (October) 45,0
09:30 UK CIPS manufacturing index (October) 41.0
10:45 Е15 European Comission's Economic Growth Forecasts
15:00 USA Construction spending (September) -0,7% 0,0%
15:00 USA ISM Mfg business index (October) 42.2 43.5
16:00 UK BoE's Governor King Speech
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