Action remains choppy in afternoon trade. After making a sudden, sharp downturn, stocks struggle to move back to higher ground.
Trading remains without leadership. The flagging financial sector is
down 5%. Earlier this session it fell to a new record low. The
financial sector was down 70% year-to-date at that low.
Energy is performing the best this session. It is up 3.8% as investors
find encouragement from rising oil prices. Oil is up 0.9% to $49.85
per barrel. Oil's advance marks a rebound from a three year low
registered in the prior session.
Technical analysts at Barclays Capital say a close above its 200-week
average of Chf1.1965 in dollar-Swiss (Chf1.2225) would be bullish in
the medium term and suggest scope for a run-up to Chf 1.2505 and
Chf1.3285 into next year. "A recent breakout area near Chf
1.1950/Chf1.2000 should now provide support, and while above here,
signs of broad-based Swiss franc weakness elsewhere warns of further
upside for dollar-Swiss," they say. Barclays says Chf1.2470 is a
topside target for next week.
The stock market falls lower after dancing along the unchanged line.
Weakness in large-cap tech names has the Nasdaq underperforming the
S&P 500 and the Dow. Of the more than 3,200 stocks trading on the
New York Stock Exchange, 831 stocks have hit new 52-week lows this
session. The number of record lows shouldn't come as a total surprise
since many stocks, like Citigroup (C 3.68, -1.03), extended the prior
session's record losses in late-morning trade Friday. At this session's
low, the stock market traded 1.5% lower.
21.11 18:53
January crude oil contract trading near flat for the day at $49.45, about the middle of a wide $48.25/51.12 session range.
The dollar was poised for a third weekly gain against the euro as a
plunge in global stocks increased demand for the safety of U.S.
government debt.
The yen increased versus the euro, the dollar, the Brazilian real and
the Mexican peso on speculation investors will sell higher-yielding
assets and pay back low-cost loans in Japan.
“It’s all about risk in this emotional market,” said Jacob Oubina, a
currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading
firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. “Risk aversion is still
prevalent.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunged 14% this week, its
second-biggest drop since World War II, after U.S. economic reports
depicted a deepening recession and lawmakers postponed a vote on a plan
to salvage the auto industry. Treasuries surged this week, pushing the
10-year note’s yield to 2.99 percent yesterday, the lowest level since
at least 1962.
“There’s strong possibility that the yen will continue appreciating as
the global recession may deepen,” said TohruSasaki, chief currency
strategist in Tokyo at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and a former chief
currency trader at the Bank of Japan. “It’s an environment where losses
in cross-yen currencies are likely to be even bigger than those in the
dollar-yen.”
Japan’s currency will advance to 87 against the dollar and 103 per euro by year-end, according to JPMorgan.
The euro may gain 16 percent against the dollar in the next 12 months
as demand in China drives up oil prices, making the U.S. currency less
attractive, Barclays Capital said.
Two-thirds of the euro’s 22 percent slide since the July peak of
$1.6038 stems from falling oil, Barclays said. Crude oil may rebound
after dropping 67 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 as
the Chinese economy expands, the firm said.
The Fed’s record injections of liquidity to stabilize the financial
system have driven the overnight lending rate between banks to less
than half the 1 percent target set Oct. 29. The gap is shifting
investor focus toward the amount of money in the system as a better
gauge of Fed intentions.
“I don’t think there’s a way of avoiding the fact that extremely low
interest rates and excess liquidity are negative for the dollar,” said
Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in
Sydney.
21.11 18:05
FED: Philly Fed's Plosser said he is not too worried about inflation near-term, or abotu deflation. Q4 will have sharp drop, H1 amaemic.
21.11 17:37
Dow +66.42 at 7618.71, Nasdaq +8.58 at 1324.70, S&P +6.95 at 759.39
21.11 17:30
Gold triggered stops above $780.00, hitting $790.13 --- highest level since October 21.
Stocks are climbing out of the red, but the tone remains mixed.
Energy, materials, and utilities all trade with gains ranging from 2%
to more than 3%, but health care and financials trade with losses
ranging from 1% to nearly 3%.
Crude oil prices have taken a downward turn. After being up 3.4% in
the early going, oil is now down 1% to trade below $49 per barrel.
Crude was actually trading just above $48 per barrel recently, which
marked a new record intraday low.
21.11 16:26
French CAC-40 is hitting fresh yearly lows below 2,909, German Xetra-DAX approaching October low at 4,014.
Wall Street rally falters, with recession concerns after
Goldman Sachs said US GDP will decline 5% in the current quarter and
expect this to be followed by declines of 3% and 1% in the next two
quarters. Pharmaceutical stocks are sharply lower, with Novartis and
Roche notable fallers. CAC-40 is down 65pts (-1.68%), Xetra-DAX is down
68pts (-1.60%) and FTSE-100 is down 60pts (-1.54%).
Pullback off European recovery highs found
support/demand placed ahead of Y118.50 (50% Y116.45/120.53), basing
around Y118.58 before bouncing back to currently trade around Y119.50.
Resistance seen placed between Y119.50/60, currently under pressure, a
break above to open a move on toward Y119.80 ahead of Y120.50.
21.11 15:17
Dow +116.52 at 7668.81, Nasdaq +24.44 at 1340.56, S&P +14.90 at 767.34
21.11 15:03
FED, Lacker: 0% FF does not hamper Fed and agrees deflation risk has increased a tad though he does not see this risk as large.
Cable found support at $1.4950, with recovery failing to make the break
back above $1.5000. A break below $1.4950 to open a deeper
pullback toward $1.4900-$1.4880. Push above
$1.5000 to open a retest on the area between $1.5050/60.
U.S. stocks looked set to rebound Friday from this week's sharp descent
after a report said financial giant Citigroup is considering putting
itself on the block.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Citigroup's board of directors is
scheduled to meet Friday to discuss ways to reverse the stock's slide.
Those measures include the possibility of selling pieces of the company
or even an outright sale, the report said, citing people familiar with
the situation.
Shares of Citigroup plunged 26% Thursday to a 15-year low. The
fall came even after Saudi Prince and long-time Citigroup investor
Alwaleed Bin Talal said he increased his stake to 5% following the U.S.
government's $25 billion bailout for the troubled bank. Before the
bailout, the prince held a 4% stake.
Citigroup, one of the hardest-hit financial firms during the credit
crisis, has lost more than $20 billion in the past four quarters. The
financial giant is facing tough economic conditions ahead, which could
translate to further losses tied to consumer and business loans.
As yet another sign of the financial crisis, Washington Mutual
said Thursday that it was eliminating 1,600 jobs in the San Francisco
area, following its failure on Sept. 29. Those cuts will bring to total
WaMu workforce down to 11,000.
Market plunge: Stocks are poised for a rebound after falling deeply
this week. On Thursday, the S&P 500 plunged to an 11-1/2 year low.
Both the Dow and Nasdaq closed at their lowest points since March 12,
2003, which was just above the low of the last bear market.
The drop was fueled by recession fears. The mood was also gloomy with
the prospects of an auto bailout this week all but dead. Democratic
leaders said Thursday that Congress would return in December to
consider extending a $25 billion lifeline for troubled U.S. automakers
if the companies devise a "viable" recovery plan.
Companies: Dell reported a decline in quarterly earnings and
sales after the market close Thursday. The PC maker said the global
economic slowdown has caused consumers and businesses to pull back on
technology spending.
Retailer Gap also posted its quarterly financial results late
Thursday. The company reported higher quarterly earnings that edged
past analysts' estimates.
Traders also note market speculation of co-ordinated government/central
bank action this weekend, in order to shore up economic growth. WTI
Nymex crude oil is at $50.75, up $1.33.
21.11 13:43
ECB TRICHET: ECB has acted decisively from very start of financial crisis.
The following data were published: 08:30 Germany PMI services (October) flash 46.2
08:30 Germany PMI (October) flash 36.7
09:00 Е15 PMI services (October) flash 43.3
09:00 Е15 PMI (October) flash 36.2
12:00 Canada CPI excluding food and energy (October) Y/Y 1.7%
12:00 Canada CPI excluding food and energy (October) -0.2%
12:00 Canada CPI (October) Y/Y 2.6%
12:00 Canada CPI (October) -0.1%
The yen declined as stocks rebounded on speculation that a sale of
Citigroup Inc. will reduce risk in the financial system, stoking demand
for higher-yielding assets financed with loans in Japan.
The yen also weakened against the Australian dollar, a favorite of
so-called carry trades, after the Reserve Bank of Australia bought its
own currency for at least the fifth time in four weeks. The dollar
dropped versus the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut
interest rates and flood the financial system with cash as a recession
causes prices to fall.
The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate at 0.3 percent today and said
it will consider pumping more money into the financial system to prop
up an economy that fell into a recession last quarter. Japan's rate
compares with 6.5 percent in New Zealand and 5.25 percent in Australia.
The Fed's record injections of liquidity to stabilize the financial
system have driven the overnight lending rate between banks to less
than half the 1 percent target set by officials last month. The gap is
shifting investor focus toward the amount of money in the system as a
better gauge of Fed intentions. EUR/USD having begun the European session by growth, the pair
could not at once will be fixed above a level $1,2600 then has slightly
decreased in area $1,2550.
GBP/USD the pound also has become stronger against dollar. At the moment the pair still to bargain in the field of a level $1,5000.
USD/JPY as a result of correction after growth the pair has decreased from a level of a session high on Y95,50 in area Y94,80.
The yen declined as stocks rebounded on speculation that a sale of Citigroup Inc. will reduce risk in the financial system, stoking demand for higher-yielding assets financed with loans in Japan. The yen also weakened against the Australian dollar, a favorite of so-called carry trades, after the Reserve Bank of Australia bought its own currency for at least the fifth time in four weeks. The dollar dropped versus the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and flood the financial system with cash as a recession causes prices to fall. ``The main driver is the rebound in equity markets that are gaining on speculation Citigroup could merge or sell off,'' said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist in London at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi Ltd. ``This is taking some of the steam out of the yen's recent rally.'' The yen has gained 17 percent against the dollar this year and 35 percent versus the euro as global recession concerns spurred a reduction in so-called carry trades, where investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate at 0.3 percent today and said it will consider pumping more money into the financial system to prop up an economy that fell into a recession last quarter. Japan's rate compares with 6.5 percent in New Zealand and 5.25 percent in Australia. ``There's strong possibility that the yen will continue appreciating as the global recession may deepen,'' said Tohru Sasaki, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and a former chief foreign-exchange trader at the Bank of Japan. ``It's an environment where losses in cross-yen currencies are likely to be even bigger than those in the dollar-yen.'' The Fed's record injections of liquidity to stabilize the financial system have driven the overnight lending rate between banks to less than half the 1 percent target set by officials last month. The gap is shifting investor focus toward the amount of money in the system as a better gauge of Fed intentions.
21.11 11:34
FTSE +26.98 at 3,901.97, CAC +11,28 at 2,991.70, Dax +15,65 at 4,235.85
Resistance 3: Y98.50
Resistance 2: Y96.50
Resistance 1: Y95.70 Current price: Y95.05 Support 1: Y94.40 Support 2: Y93.60 Support 3: Y90.90 Comments:
Tech on yen hasn't changed. The nearest resistance - level Y95,70 (61,8
% FIBO of decrease Y97,10-Y93,55). Overcoming of the given level will
open road to level Y96,50 (МА (200) for Н1). Above is possible growth
to level Y98,50 (38,2%FIBO falling Y110,65-Y90,90). The nearest support
is located at level Y94,40 (low of the last week). Below possible
falling to level Y93,60 (76,4% FIBO growth Y90,90-Y100,55) and further
to a level of thirteen years low on Y90,90.
Resistance 3: Chf1.2575 Resistance 2: Chf1.2470 Resistance 1: Chf1.2285 Current price: Chf1.2208 Support 1: Chf1.2140 Support 2: Chf1.2000 Support 3: Chf1.1920 Comments:
The pair has receded from the reached maxima and at the moment bargains
in the field of a sessional minimum on Chf1,2200. The nearest support
acts the yesterday's level of resistance Chf1,2140
(area of hugh of September of the last year and low of June and
February of the last year). Below possible decrease to Chf1,2000 (32,8
% FIBO of growth Chf1.1550-Chf1.2285), and further to Chf1.1920 (50,0
%). The area of a session high on Chf1,2285 is the nearest resistance.
Above is possible growth to Chf1,2470 (area of high of June 2008) and
further to Chf1,2575 (area of high of 2007).
Resistance 3: $1.5220 Resistance 2: $1.5060 Resistance 1: $1.5000 Current price: $1.4967 Support 1: $1.4655 Support 2: $1.4555 Support 3: $1.4280 Comments:
The rate has overcome a mark $1,4870 (23,6 % FIBO from falling
$1,5880-$ 1,4555) and has encountered resistance in the field of МА
(200) for Н1 on $1,5000 (also the important psychological level). Above
are located levels $1,5060 (38,2 %) and $1,5220 (50,0 %). As the
nearest support acts the area of Friday's and Monday's low on $1,4655.
Below is lokated the level of last Thursday's low on $1,4555 (the level
$1,4530 is area of low of June 2002). Further decrease in area $1,4280
(low of April 2002) is possible.
Resistance 3: $1.3050 Resistance 2: $1.2880 Resistance 1: $1.2670 Current price: $1.2597 Support 1: $1.2425 Support 2: $1.2385 Support 3: $1.2330 Comments:
The pair bargains in the field of $1,2600 and continues to keep a
positive spirit. The nearest resistance is the level $1,2670 (23,6%
FIBO of falling $1,3765-$ 1,2330). Further growth to $1,2880 (38,2 %)
is possible. Above is located the level $1,3050 (50,0 %). As the
nearest support acts the level $1,2425 (a line of support constructed
on low of October 28th and low of November 13, and also area of a
session low). Overcoming of the given level will open road to $1,2385
(area of last Friday's low). Below possible falling to two years low on
$1,2330.
Extends slippage to stg0.8407, with rate expected to meet demand interest on the approach to stg0.8400, with talk of stops positioned on a break below the figure.
The following data were published:
03:30 Japan BoJ meeting announcement 0.3%
06:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report (November)
08:30 Germany PMI services (October) flash 46.2
08:30 Germany PMI (October) flash 36.7
09:00 Е15 PMI services (October) flash 43.3
09:00 Е15 PMI (October) flash 36.2
The yen declined against the dollar and the euro as a rebound in Asian
equities revived demand for higher-yielding assets financed with loans
in Japan.
The yen also weakened against the Australian dollar, a favorite of
so-called carry trades, after the Reserve Bank of Australia bought its
own currency for at least the fifth time in four weeks. The dollar
dropped versus the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut
interest rates and flood the financial system with cash as a recession
causes prices to fall.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares gained 2.9 percent,
after earlier sliding as much as 2.3 percent. U.S. stock-index futures
climbed, pointing to gains after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index
yesterday closed at an 11-year low.
The RBA bought a record A$3.15 billion in the market in October, it
said yesterday, as the Australian dollar touched 60.10 U.S. cents, the
lowest level since 2003. An RBA spokesman confirmed the bank bought
Australian dollars this morning, ``providing liquidity as on previous
occasions.''
The yen still headed for a third weekly gain against the dollar and the
euro as U.S. lawmakers held off taking action on a bailout requested by
the nation's automakers, spurring a reduction in so-called carry
trades.
U.S. Democratic congressional leaders said yesterday they will delay
action at least until next month on government support for General
Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC as the three companies
haven't yet made a case for the help.
The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate at 0.3 percent today and said
it will consider pumping more money into the financial system to prop
up an economy that fell into a recession last quarter. Japan's rate
compares with 6.5 percent in New Zealand, 3 percent in the U.K., 8.25
percent in Mexico and 4 percent in South Korea.
EUR/USD having begun the session in the field of $1,2425, the pair has become stronger above a level $1,2500.
GBP/USD the rate has receded from session low at a level $1,4710 and has become stronger in area $1,4850
USD/JPY
the pair keeps a positive spirit. Having begun session in the field of
Y93,60, the rate by the current moment has become stronger above level
Y95,00.
Japan's benchmark stocks ended Friday's session higher, having rallied over 500 points, or nearly 7% from session lows. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 207.75 points, or 2.7%, to stand at 7910.79. The broader-based TOPIX was 20.41 points higher at 802.69.
Japanese stocks slumped, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average below
8,000 for the first time in four weeks, as the deepening global
recession eroded earnings at insurers and prompted the fastest drop in
exports in seven years. Tokio Marine Holdings Inc., Japan's
largest casualty insurer, plunged 15 percent after it and six listed
peers cut profit forecasts as shareholdings plunged. Isuzu Motors Ltd.,
which generates a third of its sales in Asian markets, lost 17 percent
after slashing payrolls to cope with lower overseas demand. Mitsubishi
Corp., Japan's biggest trading company, plummeted 13 percent as
commodities retreated. The Nikkei 225 dropped 570.18, or 6.9
percent, to close at 7,703.04 in Tokyo, the lowest since Oct. 28 and
the 10th steepest decline since 1970. The broader Topix index slid
45.15, or 5.5 percent, to 782.28.
European stocks
slumped, sending the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index to the lowest level
since 2003, after the highest U.S. jobless claims since 1992 heightened
concern corporate profits will crumble as the global recession deepens. BHP
Billiton Ltd. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc sank more than 5 percent as the
unexpected rise in filings for unemployment benefits and retreat in a
gauge of leading U.S. economic indicators dragged oil below $50 a
barrel. Deutsche Bank AG and ING Groep NV dropped more than 8 percent
after Citigroup Inc.'s plan to buy troubled investment-fund assets
fueled speculation of more bank writedowns. The Stoxx 600 declined
3.6 percent to 186.75, the lowest closing level since April 2003. More
than $32 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities
this year as the financial-market turmoil pushes countries from the
U.K. to the U.S. and Japan into recession. Shell, Europe's largest
oil company, lost 5.4 percent to 1,508 pence. Total SA, the region's
third-largest, retreated 4.4 percent to 37.335 euros. Crude for
December delivery fell as much as $3.87, or 7.2 percent, to $49.75 a
barrel in New York, dropping below $50 for the first time in almost two
years. Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company,
dropped 10 percent to 2,022 pence. BHP, the biggest, slid 8.7 percent
to 752.5 pence. Copper fell 3.1 percent in London on concern supply
may outpace demand as a global economic slowdown damps demand for raw
materials. Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest, dropped 9.4 percent to
19.37 euros. ING, the largest Dutch financial-services provider,
slipped 8.9 percent to 5.72 euros.
U.S. stocks swung
between gains and losses as prospects that lawmakers will agree on a
plan to rescue the auto industry offset a jump in jobless claims. General
Motors Corp. rallied as much as 43 percent, reversing a 39 percent
slide that sent the largest U.S. carmaker to its lowest price since
1938, after an aide to Democratic Senator Carl Levin said a compromise
has been reached. Ford Motor Co. jumped 21 percent for its steepest
advance since at least 1980. Stocks climbed from their lows of the
day after the S&P 500 dropped to 776.76, matching the lowest close
during the bear market that followed the dot-com bubble. The benchmark
index for American equities lost 43 percent this year, with the earlier
decline leaving it poised for its worst year ever. The earlier
retreat today came after jobless claims jumped to the highest level
since 1992 and costs for protection against corporate defaults surged
to a record on concern one of Detroit's automakers would be forced into
bankruptcy. GM jumped $1.16 to $3.95, while Ford added 52 cents to
$1.78. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. pared declines of 18
percent and 25 percent in half.
Resistance 3: Y98.50
Resistance 2: Y96.50
Resistance 1: Y95.70 Current price: Y95.20 Support 1: Y94.40 Support 2: Y93.60 Support 3: Y90.90 Comments:
The yen declined against the dollar and the euro as a rebound in Asian
equities revived demand for higher-yielding assets financed with loans
in Japan. The nearest resistance - level Y95,70 (61,8 % FIBO of
decrease Y97,10-Y93,55). Overcoming of the given level will open road
to level Y96,50 (МА (200) for Н1). Above is possible growth to level
Y98,50 (38,2%FIBO falling Y110,65-Y90,90). The nearest support is
located at level Y94,40 (low of the last week). Below possible falling
to level Y93,60 (76,4% FIBO growth Y90,90-Y100,55) and further to a
level of thirteen years low on Y90,90.
Resistance 3: Chf1.2575
Resistance 2: Chf1.2470
Resistance 1: Chf1.2285
Current price: Chf1.2239 Support 1: Chf1.2140
Support 2: Chf1.2000
Support 3: Chf1.1920
Comments: The dollar continues to become stronger against franc. The
area of a session high on Chf1,2285 is the nearest resistance. Above is
possible growth to Chf1,2470 (area of high of June 2008) and further
to Chf1,2575 (area of high of 2007). The nearest support acts the
yesterday's level of resistance Chf1,2140 (area of hugh of September of
the last year and low of June and February of the last year). Below
possible decrease to Chf1,2000 (32,8 % FIBO of growth
Chf1.1550-Chf1.2285), and further to Chf1.1920 (50,0 %).
Comments from BOJ with policy announcement. - The BOJ added it will inject more funds ahead of year end. - May consider Japan corp debt as collateral for market ops. - To activate more CP buying under repo ops - Japan inflation rate may fall further - Japan economy likely to stay sluggish for now
Resistance 3: $1.5220 Resistance 2: $1.5060
Resistance 1: $1.4870
Current price: $1.4862
Support 1: $1.4655 Support 2: $1.4555
Support 3: $1.4280
Comments: Pound's growth against yen supports GBP/USD. As intermediate
resistance acts the level $1,4870 (23,6 % FIBO of falling $1,5880-$
1,4555). Above are located levels $1,5060 (38,2 %) and $1,5220 (50,0
%). As the nearest support acts the area of Friday's and Monday's low
on $1,4655. Below is lokated the level of last Thursday's low on
$1,4555 (the level $1,4530 is area of low of June 2002). Further
decrease in area $1,4280 (low of April 2002) is possible.
Resistance 3: $1.3050 Resistance 2: $1.2880
Resistance 1: $1.2670
Current price: $1.2523 Support 1: $1.2425
Support 2: $1.2385 Support 3: $1.2330
Comments: The pair has receded from the low reached today and continues
to strengthen the positions. The nearest resistance is the level
$1,2670 (23,6% FIBO of falling $1,3765-$ 1,2330). Further growth to
$1,2880 (38,2 %) is possible. Above is located the level $1,3050 (50,0
%). As the nearest support acts the level $1,2425 (a line of support
constructed on low of October 28th and low of November 13, and also
area of a session low). Overcoming of the given level will open road to
$1,2385 (area of last Friday's low). Below possible falling to two
years low on $1,2330.
Yasal Uyarı: Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı
kapsamında değildir. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede
bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır. Bu nedenle, burada yer alan
bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar
doğurmayabilir.